What's an Obama administration, plus heavy new Democratic majorities in the House and Senate, going to mean for housing and real estate?

That's the trillion dollar question in Washington this week -- and nobody can give you the answers for sure. It's way too early - there are two full months before inauguration day in January.

But between now and then, there are going to be some important indicators. Tops on the list: What gets done -- if anything -- during the upcoming lame duck session?

Officially Congress is scheduled to come back the week of November 17 to finish up loose ends on the legislative calendar.

Democratic leaders in both the House and Senate have said they'd like to push through an ambitious emergency economic stimulus plan - portions of which are likely to be aimed at keeping financially-distressed home owners out of foreclosures, and pumping up housing sales.

During the closing days of the campaign, Senator Obama did not say whether he favors trying to pass a stimulus bill through a lame-duck Congress where Republicans could influence or sabotage the results.

The logical alternative to that would be to put together his own plan and come back in January, with heavy Democratic majorities, and push it through as a dramatic way to jump-start his new administration.

But whatever the timing, you can count on several major Obama priorities:

Number one: Large-scale, systematic mortgage relief for home owners behind on their loans.

That package could include a freeze on all foreclosures by lenders for 90 days or more; mandates for banks and loan servicers to modify the terms of mortgages to prevent foreclosures; plus new powers for bankruptcy court judges to require lenders to reduce loan balances owed or cut interest rates.

The banking and mortgage lending industries strongly oppose changes like these -- and that could be one of the first big battles the Obama administration wages on Capitol Hill.

You can count on quick passage of long-stalled Democratic bills on predatory lending, appraisal reform, plus a major effort to consolidate and strengthen the powers of financial regulatory agencies to oversee the mortgage and banking industries.

Don't be surprised if you see President-elect Obama name some of his key cabinet members early -- especially his nominee for Treasury secretary. This would allow the outgoing Bush officials to work with the incoming leaders on programs such as mortgage relief, and to have an orderly transition.

Published: November 10, 2008

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Kenneth R. Harney writes an award-winning, nationally-syndicated column on housing and real estate from Washington, D.C. He is also managing director of the National Real Estate Development Center, a professional education company. He is a past member of the Federal Reserve Board's Consumer Advisory Council, a committee that by federal statute reviews all Fed actions on home mortgage, consmer credit and banking industry regulation. He served as a member of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's Working Group on Computerized Loan Origination (CLO) systems, and is a member of the Editorial Board of the Fannie Mae Foundation's journal, Housing Policy Debate. He is the author of two books on mortgage finance and real estate.