If rising sales, rising consumer confidence, and rising new construction are keys to a rebound ahead in the home real estate market, it looks like we're well into recovery mode.

That's because this week, all three of those important indicators are strongly positive. On top of that, we've got low mortgage interest rates…and an eight thousand dollar home buyer tax credit - working as well.

Take consumer confidence if you really want proof: After six months in the doldrums, consumers' attitudes about the national economy and their own personal financial situations took a major jump to the positive side in the past month.

The Conference Board's national Consumer Confidence index soared to its highest level in eight months, up 14 points in the span of just 30 days. That's crucial for future home buying and selling behavior because when people are worried about their economic futures, they stay on the sidelines.

Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's research center, said the latest numbers show that consumers are now considerably more optimistic about everything from jobs to their own finances - more so than they've been for most of this recession.

A second important indicator last week came with the National Association of Realtors' monthly home sale report. Sales of single family homes, condos, townhomes and cooperatives jumped nearly three percent in April -- with the biggest gains at the lower-priced segments that appeal most to first-time buyers seeking the $8,000 tax credit.

In the Northeast, sales jumped nearly twelve percent, in the West by three and a half percent, and in the South by two percent. Only the Midwest saw a decline -- by about two percent.

New home building starts and permits are also on the upswing after months of negatives. In hard-hit California, new home starts increased 21 percent in April over March -- the most dramatic jump since last October.

Bob Rivinius, head of the California Building Industry Association, said "month to month increases (in sales) indicate that builders are (finally) clearing out their inventories and starting to build again."

Mortgage rates have hovered just under five percent, with the average thirty year fixed rate loan going for 4.8 percent last week … and 15 year money stable at 4.4 percent. But there are inflationary pressures at work in the market, so don't be surprised if mortgage rates rise in the coming weeks.

The main sobering news last week was on prices. According to the federal government's home price index for purchases, prices were down by an average one half of one percent in the first quarter, and by 7.1 percent when compared with the first quarter of 2008.

Published: June 2, 2009

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Kenneth R. Harney writes an award-winning, nationally-syndicated column on housing and real estate from Washington, D.C. He is also managing director of the National Real Estate Development Center, a professional education company. He is a past member of the Federal Reserve Board's Consumer Advisory Council, a committee that by federal statute reviews all Fed actions on home mortgage, consmer credit and banking industry regulation. He served as a member of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's Working Group on Computerized Loan Origination (CLO) systems, and is a member of the Editorial Board of the Fannie Mae Foundation's journal, Housing Policy Debate. He is the author of two books on mortgage finance and real estate.