With the stock market still jumpy and investors worried that the global recession may not be ending soon enough, it may seem a little surprising to see strong positive signs in the home real estate market.

But that's what's been happening.

Pending home sales rose sharply, by nearly 7 percent, in the latest month measured by the National Association of Realtors. Pending sales are those where the contracts are signed, but the deals haven't gone to settlement yet.

Pending sales were up in all four major regions of the country -- and that caught the attention of some key industry economists.

Orawin Velz, economic forecaster for the Mortgage Bankers Association, said in a commentary that "the steady improvements in pending home sales are encouraging," and confirm the view that existing home sales hit their cyclical bottom in January and are likely to continue to rise in the coming months.

Since the January low point, she noted, the Realtors' pending sale index is up by 13 percent.

Mortgage rates continue to be favorable, an average of 5.3 percent last week for 30 year fixed rate loans, 4. 8 percent for 15 year fixed, and those rates are pulling in growing numbers of home purchase loan applications.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey, new applications to buy houses increased by nearly 7 percent in the week ending July 3rd.

Meanwhile a new survey by the California Association of Realtors found sales up in most parts of the state, especially in areas hard hit by price busts following the boom.

More than two out of three buyers polled by the group -- 68 percent -- said affordable prices are the key factor pulling them off the sidelines.

Now, of course, not everything is on the plus side in the real estate sector. Many of the houses being sold at near-giveaway prices are the byproducts of foreclosures and short sales, signs of continuing financial distress among many buyers who purchased at the height of the boom with low equity stakes.

Even the rental market is taking some economic hits in the face of rising home sales. Rental unit vacancies have just hit 7.5 percent nationwide; that's the highest they've been in 22 years, according to the New York research firm that compiles these statistics.

So on balance, real estate market conditions depend on where you're looking.

If it's home sales, the outlook is improving. On rentals, it looks like the turnaround will be a little further down the road.

Published: July 14, 2009

Use of this article without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.

Kenneth R. Harney writes an award-winning, nationally-syndicated column on housing and real estate from Washington, D.C. He is also managing director of the National Real Estate Development Center, a professional education company. He is a past member of the Federal Reserve Board's Consumer Advisory Council, a committee that by federal statute reviews all Fed actions on home mortgage, consmer credit and banking industry regulation. He served as a member of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's Working Group on Computerized Loan Origination (CLO) systems, and is a member of the Editorial Board of the Fannie Mae Foundation's journal, Housing Policy Debate. He is the author of two books on mortgage finance and real estate.