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Real Estate Outlook: Case-Shiller Index
by Carla Hill
Last week the latest data was released by Standard & Poor's for their S&P/Case-Shiller index. According to their latest stats, a double-dip in the U.S. home prices is confirmed. The National Index posted a decline of 5.1 percent from the first quarter of 2010, with prices now at mid-2002 levels. "This month's report is marked by the confirmation of a double-dip in home prices across much of the nation. ... The National Index fell 4.2% over the first quarter alone. ... Home prices continue on their downward spiral with no relief in sight." says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. Much of the rise in home sales last year was due to the first-time home buyer tax credit. This year pending home sales, based on contract signings, were down 26.5 percent from pendings in April 2010. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the dip in contracts may be due to temporary factors. "The pullback in contract signings is disappointing and implies a slower than expected market recovery in upcoming months," he said. "The economy hit a soft patch in April from sharply rising oil prices, widespread severe weather with the heaviest precipitation in 20 years, and a sudden rise in unemployment claims." According to the Case-Shiller Index, Minneapolis posted a double-digit annual decline of 10.0 percent. The only metro areas surveyed which posted gains were Washington DC, up a marginal 1.1 percent, and Seattle, up just 0.1 percent for the month. Washington was also up year over year by 4.30 percent. Seattle, on the other hand, was still down 7.5 percent from March 2010. Twelve major markets fell to their lowest level as measured by the current housing cycle, including Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, and Portland. A key factor in restoring health to the housing market will be to make credit more accessible once again. The National Association of Home Builders is a strong proponent for keeping mortgage within reach of buyers. Certain members of Congress are pushing to close down Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a source of loans for many lower income buyers. "NAHB opposes legislation pending in the House and Senate that would effectively wind down the operations of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac without offering a clear vision for the future housing system and a non-disruptive transition to a new secondary market framework. Similarly, NAHB believes that more than a dozen short-term legislative proposals offered by House Republican lawmakers to reduce the support Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac provide to the mortgage markets represent a piecemeal approach to reform that would disrupt the housing market and could push the nation back into a deep recession. The NAHB is also concerned with the unveiling of proposals to establish a "Qualified Residential Mortgage" (QRM), which would make standard a minimum 20 percent downpayment on a home loan. NAHB estimates that it would take 12 years for a typical family to save enough money for a 20 percent downpayment on a median-priced single-family home and other research has found it would take even longer. With over 62 percent of first mortgages not qualifying under the QRM, the fear remains that the housing market would continue to decline. "If buyers are denied access to affordable housing credit, the shadow inventory of foreclosed homes will not be drawn down, a housing recovery will not take hold and economic growth will stall," said NAHB First Vice Chairman Barry Rutenberg. Published: June 6, 2011 Use of this article without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.
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30 Year Fixed: 3.83% 15 Year Fixed: 3.05% 1 Year Adj: 2.73% (U.S. Weekly Averages) Today's Headlines 06/06/2011
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