Housing Hinges On Consumer Bargain Hunting

Written by Posted On Wednesday, 05 December 2007 16:00

When ordinary people feel the pinch they start slowing down their personal spending. They may put off the purchase of a car or a bigscreen TV, but they can also be easily lured back to the showroom or the mall by bargains.

Will the same hold true for housing? Interest rates have retreated to near record lows. Housing inventories are at 20-year highs. House prices nationwide have softened.

If that's not bargain-sniffing territory, I don't know what is.

But consumers can send mixed signals. They spent more money on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving which is widely considered an important benchmark of consumer confidence. But a new report says most were bargain-hunting.

According to ABC News and the Washington Post "consumer comfort" index only 30 percent of consumers polled believe it's a good time to spend their money. That's the lowest percentage for the index in 14 years.

The Consumer Conference Board , which performs its widely quoted monthly Consumer Confidence Index, found the same thing. The Expectations Index plummeted to 68.7 percent in November from 80 percent in September. The Board found consumers' apprehension "about the short-term outlook is being fueled by volatility in financial markets, rising prices at the pump and the likelihood of larger home heating bills this winter."

That explains why the ABC/Post index was down for the first of December.

In the meanwhile, bargains in housing have increased, and consumers are noticing.

Based on this week's Mortgage Bankers Association survey, loan applications more than doubled from the previous week, due to near record interest rates. The Refinance Index alone increased over 56 percent. This suggests that consumers know a bargain when they see one.

Look for the National Association of Realtors Pending Housing Sales report on December 10th. We'll know then if homebuyers know a bargain when they see one.

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