The FED had it’s meeting this week and made some observations and projections that they supported with their “FACTS”. While Jerome Powell has tried to bury his whole “tapering” comments with a simple shrug of the shoulders and the comment that we won’t use the word transitory any longer, it doesn’t absolve the facts that keep getting shared are just as big a fantasy going forward. So how about we just get real here for the next few minutes.
With all the data the FED looks at, it’s hard not to see they almost always ignore reality. CPI & PPI are significantly flawed measurements because one doesn’t take a real measure of costs, especially food, energy, and housing. When they do look at those numbers, the measurements they use so far behind the reality, it almost makes it a moot point. The other makes assumptions as to how much of the increase in costs will manufactures past along to the consumer.
So, when the FED inflation data says one thing, we as consumers know that things are far worse. You can’t just strip out food and energy and say here it is! You can think that significantly higher wages aren’t going to just not get calculated into the price to the street. You can make mandates, raise taxes, reduce supply, and NOT expect that some how it all works out fine. So, let’s get real. The FED will reduce its bond and treasury purchases by 30B a month, which means by March they should be done completely. That is when they can start raising rates. By their own projections, the consensus is that through 2022 and 2023 we should see 1.5% rise in the FED Funds rate. How it gets spaced out and in what increments will depend on what they see in their tea leaves. While I am never confident in the FEDs ability to forecast, I do think it will happen sooner rather than later. That fact that it will start to happen sooner is good news because it needs to happen, and I believe the long-term securities will benefit from a serious move to tackle inflation.
In the mortgage industry inflation is the devil. The sooner there is a serious attempt to deal with it, the quicker the market will get to the new “normal” and everyone can adjust accordingly! Elimination of FED purchases and higher FED Funds rates will be a good thing in the long run. For the short term, if you like it, lock it!
Questions or comments: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Rick began his career as a part-time agent in 1976, quickly becoming full-time and eventually buying the company in his fifth year. He grew it from 34 to 193 agents and lead the U.S. in agent productivity. His personal sales production saw him sell 200+ homes per year during his sales career. He was honored to be both Renos Salesperson of the Year, as well as the Nevadas Realtor of the Year. Upon selling his company, Rick has shared his successful strategies worldwide ever since. He has spoken in all 50 states, for every real estate franchise and has been recognized as one of the most popular trainers within the real estate industry. In 2014 Rick became the Regional Director for an Australian based franchise and grew it to 7 offices with 125 agents in Oregon and Washington.
With over 40 years of experience Ive seen every real estate model offered to this industry. When I was first introduced to Exit Realty, I was intrigued with a business model I had never seen. The culture of we help our people grow immediately impressed me. While providing state of the art technology, Exit Realty continues to emphasize the importance of relationships. The combination of providing incredible tools, exceptional service to owners, agents and staff, a strong emphasis on strengthening relationships and a compensation plan that rewards growth has created a culture that is truly unique in this industry. I believe my 40+ years in this business has prepared me for this journey and by joining the Exit Realty family I will create a legacy I will be proud to claim.
Agent Resource
|
||||||
What's New
From buying and selling advice for consumers to money-making tips for Agents, our content, updated daily, has made Realty Times® a must-read, and see, for anyone involved in Real Estate.