Today's Headlines - Realty Times
Posted On Monday, 13 November 2023 10:00
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Posted On Sunday, 12 November 2023 05:58 Written by


Joe SchneiderJoe served as the Director of Global Strategy and Engagement at the National Association of REALTORS®.

With over 15 years of experience in the real estate industry, Joe is a collaborative, strategic, and diplomatic professional who serves as a dedicated leader in policy advocacy for the North Bay Association of REALTORS (NBAOR). In the role of Government Affairs Director, Joe exhibit a keen ability to monitor and analyze legislative and regulatory matters affecting the real estate landscape and the interests of NBAOR members. Previously, Joe held the position of Head of Industry Relations where he provided expert-level counsel to executive leadership on a broad spectrum of issues.

Joe’s qualifications include a CA Real Estate License and two distinguished certifications awarded by the National Association of REALTORS: Certified International Property Specialist and REALTOR Certified Executive.

Posted On Sunday, 12 November 2023 00:00 Written by
Posted On Thursday, 16 November 2023 00:00 Written by

Change is an inevitability of human life. We go through changes as we age from teens into adulthood by moving out of our parents’ houses and going to college or a trade school. And as we move from early adulthood to our 30s, 40s, 50s, and later years, with starting new jobs, getting married, having kids, and retiring, more change occurs. We have become very adept at handling the various changes thrown at us.

However, I would be remiss to say that we handle it well. Quite frequently, we humans do not handle change well, as it is viewed as an “unknown” that ultimately disrupts us.

So, whether it is personal or a change you face throughout your professional career, would it not benefit you and fully transform your attitude about change if you were able to actually see the changes coming your way?

Controlling Your Perception of Change

There are two ways we perceive changes that happen to us. One view is that change is a positive thing, and another that it is inherently negative. A positive outlook on change is one that we make happen, or that we choose. Thinking change is positive is not something we are born to do — we learn that change can be a good thing, which gives us the opportunity to alter our perspective to be positive. And with that positive outlook, we are better prepared to instead create change with an anticipatory approach change with an anticipatory approach.

Negative changes are viewed as those that happen to us or that catch us off guard, disrupting us as we sit in our comfort zones. This causes us to act as crisis managers in an attempt to get back what was once our “normal.” As a result, business leaders inevitably fall behind on innovation, lose out on profits, lose their standing in the market, and can even become irrelevant to their customers.

The thing about negative changes is that the perception of them is a choice, stemming from a lack of foresight and the decision not to look into the visible future and anticipate what is to come. Change does happen to us; however, with an Anticipatory mindset, you create changes in your industry first!

Change Is Just a Challenge for Innovation

Take a moment to imagine a world without change. While on the surface this may seem comforting, what you are really picturing is your specific world staying the way it is right now. However, much of what you enjoy about your world right now resulted from change and innovations that stemmed from said change.

Change is naturally occurring and naturally disruptive, but it is whether or not we let it disrupt us that separates the image of success from the feeling of failure. Instead of viewing the diversity that change creates in our professional and personal lives as a fire we must put out (because try as you might, you cannot), business leaders and executives need to adjust their mindset and view it as a challenge to be an innovator.

Because human beings are competitive in nature, this is a huge advantage when it comes to the concept of change. When you view changes as a challenge to innovate, you have the motivation to move forward into the future and create the newest revolutionary idea that can put you ahead of the game.

Changes That Do Not Pertain to Technology

Change as a challenge does not always pertain directly to disruptive technology either, as we now witness in the economy today.

For instance, the manufacturing industry isn’t being disrupted by changes that result in a lack of employees — it is being challenged to offer competitive benefits and training programs that give it the best retention.

Manufacturers are not being disrupted by changes in inflation and the rising costs of raw materials — they are being challenged to find new, innovative, and cost-effective ways to produce products for a customer base that values sustainability and convenience.

Shifting to viewing change as a challenge is exactly what organizations like Procter & Gamble, PepsiCo, and Apple are doing. In addition to these select few, many organizations have not only adjusted to viewing any change as a challenge, they have now mastered the ability to anticipate change and create transformations long before they are disrupted from the outside in.

Stay on Top: How to Anticipate the Challenge of Change

Adjusting your mindset to one that sees changes as challenges instead of obstacles or fires — and strategizing with an Anticipatory mindset to sustain the success that comes from this shift — is the imperative that I teach many business leaders.

First, you need to realize that a lot of changes in business are cyclical, i.e., they have directly to do with cycles. You can predict cycles with absolute certainty because they are based in certainty. What we are most familiar with currently is that inflation goes up, but it inevitably will come down. Cyclical changes happen over and over again in a continuous cycle.

Linear change is much different and must also be anticipated to be capitalized on immediately. Linear change is a type that occurs once and never again. When the telecommunications industry introduced smartphones, there was no intent to later go back to old rotary phones exclusively. Businesses now use many different types of communication software, such as Teams and Zoom — which means we will never go back to exclusively using email.

Understanding if the changes you’re predicting are cyclical or linear helps greatly in how you proactively leverage them. Designate a time to look closely at both Hard Trend future certainties and Soft Trend future possibilities, as both directly apply to change that you can take control of. All customers grow older every day, no matter what generation they are part of. That’s a Hard Trend future certainty and a cyclical change, whereas the impact you can leave on each individual generation is a Soft Trend and a linear change that can be made.

Furthermore, this is where you can leverage transformative technology to innovate in the wake of these challenges disguised as change. Change is out in the open for everyone to see, but you must put in the time and effort to anticipate it before it has the opportunity to disrupt you. In this way you can foster a future of innovation and growth in your industry and at your organization.

Posted On Tuesday, 14 November 2023 00:00 Written by

I have talked repeatedly about how the FED continues to look at old data when making decisions about FED policy. We have seen this repeatedly how many of the indicators the FED relies on get updated and revised so that the initial data was almost useless. As we saw in the spring, the FED was looking at inflation and siting the rise in used car prices and hotel rooms as a basis to keep raising interest rates. We all knew these were numbers that were months old, and that recent, more real time data was showing the opposite. They raised rates then, and they are poised to raise rates yet again! At least that’s what two FEB members were calling for this week.

FED member Bowman and Kashkari called for further rate hikes. Despite HUGE revisions in employment data, increasing initial jobless claims and continuing claims rising, oil prices and used car prices dropping; here they are, just looking backward to keep on raising rates. I guess Chairman Powell is correct in his comments that you can be at the FED for 10 years and still feel like a newbie! Well, of course you do; you guys NEVER seem to learn anything about the data you choose to use before making policy! FED moves take eight to twelve months to fully impact the economy. Why wouldn’t you trust the real time data? While not at the FED’s 2% target, the inflation trend is heading lower and pushing the economy into the ground isn’t a great plan!

While I know that the FED will site the strong consumer spending numbers, it is at the cost of reduced savings rates and HUGE increases in credit card debt! There is a real reason cash out refinances continue to rise! All of those 3% mortgages people were never going to give up; they are being refinanced at 7% and higher because 20%+ credit card rates are crushing monthly payments, not to mention the pressure of student loan repayments! Yet some on the FED don’t see it.

Some good news is that purchase loan applications are up 3% week over week and refinances are up 2% in that same time period. Many of those purchase applications are from people who explored buying a home earlier this year but held off until home prices fell, and interest rates came down. The shock to stop the losses is very real as neither of those two things took place. Might be a good time to reach back out and talk to your past inquiries to see if they are ready to go. We have about 30 more days to make a deal happen and close in time for the New Year! Questions or comments: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Posted On Monday, 13 November 2023 00:00 Written by

Nationwide, investor purchases fell 30% year over year to the lowest third-quarter level in seven years, as rising mortgage rates, high home prices and a lackluster rental market made investing less attractive

Investor purchases of U.S. homes dropped 29.7% year over year in the third quarter, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Investors purchased 48,667 homes—the lowest level of any third quarter since 2016. By comparison, overall home purchases fell 22.2% to 305,219—the lowest third-quarter level since 2012.

The seven metros where investor purchases declined fastest are all in the Sun Belt. Atlanta saw the steepest decline (-49.7%), followed by Charlotte, NC (-49.6%), Jacksonville, FL (-48.2%), Phoenix (-47.4%), Las Vegas (-43.3%), Orlando, FL (-42.6%) and Tampa, FL (-41.3%). This is according to a Redfin analysis of county records across 39 of the most populous U.S. metropolitan areas. The national figures in the report represent an aggregation of those metros.

“Investors are very quiet in Phoenix,” said local Redfin Premier real estate agent Heather Mahmood-Corley. “If I get any investor clients these days, it’s usually the mom-and-pop ones. The bigger investors who used to come in and buy five or 10 homes at a time—you just don’t see that anymore. The money they were getting from hedge funds has dried up, rents are down and demand for housing in general has slowed because so many people are staying put.”

Investors piled into the Sun Belt during the pandemic to profit off of surging housing and rental values as scores of remote workers moved in. Because investor purchases in the region jumped so dramatically, they now have relatively more room to fall. Appetite for homes in many Sun Belt metros has also cooled because so many buyers have been priced out.

Investors Bought $36 Billion Worth of U.S. Homes, Down 20% Year Over Year

Investors purchased $36 billion worth of U.S. homes in the third quarter, down 19.5% from a year earlier. The typical home purchased by investors cost $475,115, up slightly from $449,895 a year earlier, as overall home prices have ticked up.

Home purchases by both investors and individual buyers have plunged from pandemic heights because elevated mortgage rates and home prices have cut into buying power, and house hunters don’t have enough homes to choose from. The typical homebuyer’s monthly payment is now more than $2,700, up roughly 11% from a year ago, as mortgage rates remain elevated. While 71% of investor purchases were made in cash in the third quarter, investors are still impacted by high interest rates because they often use other types of loans to cover expenses.

Investors have retreated faster than regular buyers partly because many of them buy homes purely to make money, which has become harder to do. Home prices are growing, but at a far slower pace than they were during the pandemic homebuying boom, and many sellers are being forced to cut their list prices after putting their homes on the market due to sluggish demand. That’s making it less attractive to be in the business of home flipping. Investors who buy homes to generate rental income are backing off, too, because rents have stopped growing and rental vacancies are on the rise.

“We don't expect investors to dive back into the market in a big way anytime soon,” said Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari. “Borrowing costs are unlikely to fall significantly in the near future, and while home prices may soften a bit, they probably won’t cool enough to bring back a critical mass of investors."

Investors bought 15.9% of U.S. homes that sold in the third quarter, down slightly from 17.6% a year earlier but higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Investors Listed Fewer Homes, But Those Who Did Sell Still Reaped Gains

Investors listed 16.4% fewer homes in September than they did a year earlier. But the typical home sold by an investor went for $179,116 (61.2%) more than they originally bought it for. That’s up from $144,379 (44.6%) a year earlier. September is the most recent month for which this data is available.

Many of the investors who are selling today likely bought before the pandemic home price surge, which is why they’re still able to bring in profits. But it’s important to note that selling a home for more than the purchase price isn’t necessarily the same thing as reaping a large profit. That’s because investors, especially home flippers, spend money remodeling and maintaining homes before selling, which cuts into returns.

Overall, investors owned 8.2% of new listings in September, comparable with 8.8% a year earlier. Just 4.5% of homes sold by investors sold at a loss during the month, down from 13.8% a year earlier.

Mahmood-Corley of Phoenix said she’s seeing more investors sell than buy.

“The investors who bought up all the Airbnbs are selling—some are institutional investors and some are mom-and-pop investors who got in over their heads,” she said. “They’re selling because the Airbnb market isn’t as strong as it was during the pandemic, and in some areas, new rules on short-term rentals have made owning them less attractive. There are also just a lot of unknowns right now, so some people want to get rid of their investment properties so they don’t have to deal with the uncertainty.”

Investors Bought Nearly 1 of Every 4 Low-Priced Homes That Sold

Investors bought 23.5% of low-priced homes that sold in the third quarter, comparable with 23.8% a year earlier. They purchased 13.7% of high-priced homes (little changed from a year earlier) and 11.4% of mid-priced homes (down from 15.6% a year earlier).

Investors are drawn to affordable homes for the same reason as other homebuyers: They cost less, which is especially attractive when home prices and borrowing costs remain elevated. And when housing affordability is this strained, there could be more potential for price increases in the lower price tier.

Low-priced homes made up 45.2% of investor purchases in the third quarter, up from 42.5% a year earlier. High-priced homes accounted for 30.8% (vs 27.6% a year earlier) and mid-priced homes made up 24% (vs 30% a year earlier).

Starter homes, which Redfin defines in this report as homes with 1,400 square feet or less, represented 38.9% of investor purchases in the third quarter, the highest share of any third quarter on record and down just slightly from the all-time high of 40.5% in the first quarter of 2023.

To view the full report, including charts, methodology and metro-level data, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/investor-home-purchases-q3-2023

Posted On Saturday, 11 November 2023 14:06 Written by
Posted On Friday, 10 November 2023 12:13
Posted On Friday, 10 November 2023 11:14
Posted On Friday, 10 November 2023 10:49

Mortgage-purchase applications are up 3% week over week as homebuyers act on a few pieces of buyer-friendly news: Mortgage rates have dropped from 8% to 7.4% in the last few weeks, there are more homes for sale than there have been all year, and price drops are at a record high.

Mortgage rates are falling quickly, dropping from a two-decade high of 8% to 7.4% in the last three weeks, giving homebuyers an opportunity to lock in a lower rate. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

A series of macro-economic events and indicators helped bring rates down last week: The Fed decided against another interest-rate hike, the Treasury announced plans to issue less long-term debt than expected and the job market is growing slower than expected.

Buyers should consider locking in a mortgage rate now

Redfin economists recommend that serious homebuyers consider locking in a mortgage now, while average rates sit at their lowest level since mid-September. That’s because while rates could continue their downward trend, it’s also possible they will increase soon. The downward trend could reverse if this month’s economic news goes the other way; for instance, rates could increase if the November 14 CPI report shows higher-than-expected inflation.

Though rates are more than double pandemic-era levels and some homebuyers are still priced out of the market, rates going from 8% to 7.4% shaves a few hundred dollars off a monthly mortgage payment in many areas. A homebuyer in Seattle, for instance, would pay $4,984 per month for the median-priced home ($775,000) with a 7.4% mortgage rate, compared to $5,240 with an 8% rate.

“I’m advising buyers to lock in a mortgage rate as soon as they drop to a number where they can make the math work,” said Seattle Redfin Premier agent Hal Bennett. “Payments could go up hundreds of dollars overnight if the winds shift on mortgage rates, and all of a sudden you won’t be able to afford the home you want or you won’t qualify for a mortgage. This window of opportunity could be narrow.”

Buyers are already taking note: Mortgage-purchase applications are up 3% week over week.

New listings rise, price drops hit record high

There are a few other glimmers of hope emerging for buyers, too. While inventory remains low, there has been an unseasonal uptick in the total number of homes for sale, which is at its highest level since the start of the year. New listings rose 1.5% from a year ago during the four weeks ending November 5, just the second increase since July 2022.

Additionally, nearly 7% of home sellers dropped their asking price–the highest portion on record.

Leading indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity

 

Value (if applicable)

Recent change

Year-over-year change

Source

Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

7.41% (Nov. 8)

Down from 7.88% a week earlier

Up from 7.25%

Mortgage News Daily

Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

7.76% (week ending Nov. 2)

Down slightly from 7.79% a week earlier; still near highest level in 23 years

Up from 7.08%

Freddie Mac

Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)

 

Up 3% from a week earlier (as of week ending Nov. 3)

Down 20%

Mortgage Bankers Association

Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)

 

Down 5% from a month earlier (as of the week ending Nov. 5)

Down 5%

Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents

Google searches for “home for sale”

 

Down 7% from a month earlier (as of Nov. 4)

Down 21%

Google Trends

Touring activity

 

Down 22% from the start of the year (as of Nov. 2)

At this time last year, it was down 31% from the start of 2022

ShowingTime, a home touring technology company

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending November 5, 2023

Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.

 

Four weeks ending November 5, 2023

Year-over-year change

Notes

Median sale price

$368,500

3.7%

Biggest increase in a year. Prices are up partly because elevated mortgage rates were hampering prices during this time last year

Median asking price

$379,725

4.9%

Biggest increase in over a year

Median monthly mortgage payment

$2,732 at a 7.76% mortgage rate

11%

$8 shy of all-time high set 2 weeks earlier

Pending sales

67,446

-9%

 

New listings

77,821

1.5%

Second year-over-year increase since July 2022. The increase is partly because new listings were falling at this time last year.

Active listings

863,500

-9.4%

Smallest decline since July. At their highest level since the start of 2023.

Months of supply

3.6 months

+0.2 pts.

4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.

Share of homes off market in two weeks

36.8%

Up from 33%

 

Median days on market

34

-2 days

 

Share of homes sold above list price

29%

Up from 27%

 

Share of homes with a price drop

6.8%

+0.1 pt.

Record high (tied with previous week)

Average sale-to-list price ratio

99%

+0.4 pts.

Lowest level since April

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending November 5, 2023

Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.

 

Metros with biggest year-over-year increases

Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases

Notes

Median sale price

Newark, NJ (14.4%)

Anaheim, CA (12.3%)

San Diego, CA (11.9%)

Cincinnati, OH (11.7%)

New Brunswick, NJ (10.8%)

Austin, TX (-5.7%)

Fort Worth, TX (-2%)

Tampa, FL (-0.9%)

Portland, OR (-0.6%)

Declined in 4 metros

Pending sales

Las Vegas (3.4%)

Anaheim, CA (1.1%)

San Antonio, TX (-26.4%)

Portland, OR (-21.7%)

Sacramento, CA (-19.2%)

Virginia Beach, VA (-17.6%)

Seattle (-17.2%)

Declined in all but 2 metros

New listings

San Jose, CA (17.8%)

Phoenix (16.1%)

Tampa, FL (10.4%)

West Palm Beach, FL (9.2%)

Montgomery County, PA (7.9%)

Atlanta (-20.7%)

Portland, OR (-16.7%)

Seattle (-12.3%)

Newark, NJ (-10.1%)

Providence, RI (-9.8%)

Declined in roughly half the metros

To view the full report, including charts, please visit:

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-falling-mortgage-rates-reduce-payments

Posted On Friday, 10 November 2023 07:02 Written by
Posted On Thursday, 09 November 2023 15:50
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