Are Amazon’s HQ2 Winners Really Losers?

Written by Jaymi Naciri Posted On Wednesday, 21 November 2018 05:28

Live in Crystal City, VA or Long Island City, NY? You’re the big winners in the Amazon HQ2 Sweepstakes. Coming your way: Up to 25,000 new jobs, tax incentives, and skyrocketing home prices.

Yay?

CBS News reports that, “Amazon’s two HQ2 pics are suddenly white-hot real estate markets. “A three-bedroom condo with Manhattan views that had sat on the market for months, priced at $1.7 million, is suddenly drawing would-be buyers now that Amazon has announced plans to build part of its new second headquarters in Long Island City,” they said. “Online searches for homes in Long Island City — long an industrial area in the Queens borough of New York — soared 248 percent last week.”

Meanwhile, “searches in the other winner of Amazon's sweepstakes, Crystal City, Virginia, jumped 84 percent. Real estate agents say they're hearing from investors who'd like to become landlords and from sellers who've decided to pull their homes off the market, sit back and wait for prices to go up, up, up.”

That’s going to create an inventory crunch in the hyper-local market, which, in the case of Queens especially, was already in high demand. “Long Island City and the surrounding communities of Astoria, Sunnyside and Woodside are already the most expensive neighborhoods in Queens, with an average rent of just over $3,000 per month,” said Forbes. “Throw in that local rents and housing prices have risen 4.7% and 5% respectively over the last year — without Amazon’s help, mind you — and it begs the question: What will happen once HQ2 moves in?”

Real Estate Agent Jay Nix with Compass Realty told Fox 5 DC that, “while Crystal City will be the center for a lot of action for the new headquarters, the area is older and will need some work before the boom really starts to happen. There's a lot of big buildings built back in the '70s and '80s, not turnkey. They need work, stepping back in a time capsule. So people have to think about that when they go to buy. I don't think that immediately people will be clamoring to live in historic downtown Crystal City. It's going to take a couple of years before it's transformed and it will be in demand."

In both areas, the Amazon effect on real estate is expected to spill over into the already-hot Washington, DC and Manhattan/Brooklyn markets, further driving up prices. That sound you hear is Seattle sitting over here, pointing and laughing.

The city that’s home to HQ Original Recipe has had one of the hottest real estate markets in the country for several years running, and you can credit/blame Amazon for that. “Over the past five years, home prices in Amazon’s current home of Seattle jumped by nearly 73% and rents by 31%, according to MarketWatch. Today it’s the third-most expensive housing market in the country and the second-most competitive, per Forbes.

Added Curbed: “As the company’s rise over the last decade has fueled exceptional economic and real estate growth, it’s also increased housing costs, driven up rents for small businesses, and led to long-term transportation challenges and local angst.

Will the same be true of the two HQ2 spots? It depends on who you ask. Martin Eiden, a New York-based agent with Compass, “said he’s already had at least one property owner ask about taking his home off the market, hoping to re-list it (for $200,000 more, nonetheless) once HQ2 moves into town,” said Forbes. “Ultimately, rents and home values are going to rise. And though those increases might be small, they could still have an impact on residents in and around Long Island City. In fact, even just a fractional increase could put a serious strain on renters in the area. According to Apartment List, 52% of New York City renters are currently cost-burdened.”

Property values are expected to rise in both cities, and the word that either thrills or repels you, depending on your take—gentrification—is also being whispered. As the dual HQ2s begin to take shape, each of the cities can fortify their positions by paying attention to what’s worked, and what hasn’t, in Seattle.

“Like most Seattleites, I have a complicated relationship with Amazon,” said Michael Hobbes on Huffington Post. “In the eight years since Amazon started adding tens of thousands of jobs, Seattle has achieved the country’s second-highest per-capita income and its 11th-fastest job growth. We host a disproportionate share of America’s best restaurants. The influx of tech workers and tax revenues have led a surge in public spending. Our buses run more often than ever, our light rail system is expanding and our parks are so well manicured that we sometimes forget we can only enjoy them three months out of the year.”

But then there are the negatives, namely: “the undeniable fact that the city’s boom has come on the backs of its poorest residents. The influx of population…has pushed housing prices upward, turning homeowners into millionaires and renters into refugees. Our homelessness crisis is so bad the mayor has declared it an emergency. Our public schools are running the largest deficits since the 1970s. All those fancy new restaurants? Like a lot of other Old Seattle townies, I can’t afford a meal at most of them.”

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