A report by RBC says about 650,000 Canadians will be living in seniors’ residences or nursing homes by 2030, up from the 450,000 now living there. It will cost “at least” $140 billion to build the extra places to house them, says the report.

“The financial demands of an older population will make it harder for governments to fund key growth priorities like education and skills development, let alone the vote-getting niche initiatives they often advance at election time,” says the RBC report. “All levels of government will feel pressure from a shrinking tax base.”

It says caring for seniors will take 55 per cent of healthcare budgets in 2030, compared to 45 per cent now. “Demand for long-care beds alone could cost the provinces $50 billion in construction costs by 2035.”

Ten or 20 years ago, some analysts worried that when the baby boom generation hit retirement age, they would all sell their big family homes and create an oversupply of listings. As it turns out, most baby boomers are staying put, or moving to other homes that are just as big.

But eventually, many boomers will be forced to move from their current homes to assisted-living accommodations.

“Over the coming decade, we expect baby boomers to ‘release’ half a million homes they currently own – the result of the natural shrinking of their ranks and their shift to rental forms of housing, such as seniors’ homes, for health or lifestyle reasons.”

When that happens, the RBC report suggests it could bring “long-awaited supply for a new generation of buyers,” but it warns that “baby boomers won’t sell cheap.”

This presents an opportunity, says the report, to transform the housing supply, both to create more affordable housing for younger families and to build seniors’ housing.

“For example, multiple units could be built on a lot previously occupied by one dwelling. Just the kind of gentle increase in density that many see as a key part of the housing affordability solution in Canada’s largest cities.”

But that will require more progress “to modernize zoning bylaws and other restrictive housing policies – complex and emotionally charged issues to say the least,” says RBC.

Governments have been thinking about housing for seniors, forming a group called the Federal Provincial and Territorial Ministers Responsible for Seniors. The group issued a report last year that says there is a need “to increase the supply of housing for seniors overall, with options that consider the range of health needs and income status of seniors.”

With everyone agreeing that seniors want to live in their current homes or communities as long as they are able to, the group says, “the well-being of seniors can be improved through all levels of government encouraging and promoting inclusion of age-friendly principals into all future building and space design policy and planning.”

This includes promoting mixed-use developments close to amenities to remove transportation and accessibility barriers. Allowing the construction of smaller housing units and accessory units (known years ago as “granny flats”), as well as developing housing for intergenerational living are other recommendations.

Many different models for seniors residences and communities have been developed, as well as in-home services for those who are still living on their own. Recently the Housing Research Collaborative at University of British Columbia looked at some of the more innovative projects.

Toronto’s Homeshare Project pairs university and college students with seniors who have spare rooms. The students pay rent from $400 to $600 per month – well below market rates – in exchange for promising up to seven hours of their time. Students run errands and help with light housekeeping and meal preparation and/or companionship.

The program is operated by the City of Toronto and everyone involved must go through a Vulnerable Sector Screening process by Toronto Police Services. The program helps seniors live in their homes longer, while also offering much-needed student housing.

In Finland, there’s a multigenerational model in which students are provided with rent-free accommodation in a dorm room located in a senior’s residence, says the UBC report. Students volunteer to participate in activities with the seniors. 

Abbeyfield Houses are another option for some seniors. They generally house 12 to 15 seniors in a building where they have their own private bedrooms and/or sitting rooms that they furnish themselves. Other facilities are shared. Volunteers and on-site staff help with preparing meals and maintaining the home.

There are currently 19 Abbeyfield Houses across Canada, housing 350 seniors. The homes do not provide 24-hour on-site medical services or extensive assisted support and there is no overnight supervision. 

However, the concept enables seniors to enjoy a family-style setting and companionship, balanced with privacy.

In co-housing developments, seniors live in individual homes that surround a common house that has shared amenities, such as a kitchen and home office. Some include on-site resident caregivers.

Canada’s first Dementia Village opened recently in Langley, B.C. It’s a three-hectare site that houses 75 seniors who suffer from neurodegenerative diseases. The site includes a store, a hair salon and a café and the residents are allowed to stroll around the grounds as they wish. There is a fence and security cameras to ensure their safety.

Residents are encouraged to walk, shop and do chores such as cooking, which are supervised by staff. The UBC report says this model offers residents a sense of independence and normalcy. However, at $7,300 per month, the cost is prohibitive for many seniors.