Boom Not Over: Census Determines Fastest-growing Counties

Written by Posted On Thursday, 16 March 2006 16:00

While the National Association of Realtors (NAR) observes that housing is returning to a more normal market that is balanced between buyers and sellers, the U.S. Census reports the hottest counties for population growth in the U.S.

After five years of record sales, including a scalding hot year in 2005, NAR's chief economist David Lereah said the number of homes on the market is growing as sales cool off to more normal levels.

"The cooling from overheated sales conditions in recent months is helping to bring inventory levels up to the point where buyers have more choices than they've seen in the last five years," Lereah said. "Annual price appreciation is still running at double-digit rates, but the cause of those sharp increases is going away. As the market readjusts, price appreciation should return to more normal rates of growth this year."

He expects the national median existing-home price for all housing types to rise 5.8 percent in 2006 to $220,300. The median new-home price should increase 5.4 percent this year to $250,200.

Existing-home sales are expected to fall 5.7 percent to 6.67 million in 2006 from the record 7.08 million last year. At the same time, new-home sales are forecast to decline 7.7 percent to 1.18 million from a record 1.28 million in 2005.

While some worry that a downturn in housing volume signals a precipitous drop, what it really means is that sales are predicted to closely follow the record-breaking year in 2003, which is good news.

Meanwhile, the Census Bureau says that during the record-breaking year of 2005, when the number of houses sold topped 7 million in the U.S., some areas were red-hot with growing populations.

Flagler County in Florida, located along the Atlantic Coast between Daytona Beach and Jacksonville, was the fastest-growing county for the second year in a row with a 10.7 percent population increase from July 1, 2004, to July 1, 2005, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. Flagler, with 76,410 residents, also led the nation with a 53 percent population increase since Census 2000.

According to the estimates, all but one of the top-10 fastest-growing counties between 2004 and 2005 are located in either the South or the West, with Lyon, Nev. (near Carson City), ranking second at 9.6 percent; Kendall, Ill. (in the Chicago area), third at 9.4 percent; Rockwall, Texas (near Dallas), fourth; Washington, Utah (the lone county in the St. George metro area), fifth; Nye, another Nevada county, sixth at 7.4 percent; and Pinal, Ariz. (near Phoenix), seventh at 6.9 percent.

Rounding out the top 10 were three counties in Virginia: Loudoun, near Washington, D.C., ranked eighth with a population increase of 6.8 percent; King George, ninth with 6.7 percent; and Caroline (near Richmond) 10th at 6.5 percent. Another Chicago-area county -- Grundy, Ill., just missed the top 10, ranking 11th.

Los Angeles, Calif., continued to be the most populous county in the nation, with 9.9 million residents on July 1, 2005, followed by Cook, Ill. (5.3 million); Harris, Texas (3.7 million); and Maricopa, Ariz. (3.6 million).

Other highlights include:

  • Florida had 15 counties among the 100 fastest-growing; Georgia had 12 and Texas had 11.

  • The fastest-growing county in the Northeast was Pike, Pa., ranking 72nd with a population increase of 4.2 percent over the one-year period. Pike was the only county in that region to make the list of 100 fastest-growing counties.

  • More than half of the counties among the top-20 numerical gainers were located in either Texas (six) or Florida (five). All the counties on this top-20 list were in the South or West, with the exception of Will, Ill.

  • Twenty-two of the nation's counties gained more than 20,000 residents between 2004 and 2005.

Between 2000 and 2005, the fastest growing county over 100,000 in population was Flagler County, Fla., which grew by 53 percent between April 1, 2000, and July 1, 2005. Joining Flagler among the top 10 were four counties in Georgia, all in the Atlanta metro area: Forsyth (fifth), Henry (seventh), Newton (eighth) and Paulding (10th). The remainder were Loudoun, Va. (second); Rockwall, Texas (third); Kendall, Ill. (fourth); Douglas, Colo. (sixth); and Lincoln, S.D. (ninth).

Overall, 13 of the 20 fastest-growing counties were located in the South, while another five -- Kendall, Ill.; Lincoln, S.D.; Delaware, Ohio; Scott, Minn.; and Hamilton, Ind.; -- were located in the Midwest. Only two counties on the list -- Douglas, Colo., and Lyon, Nev., -- were located in the West.

The fastest-growing county in the Northeast was Pike, Pa., (84th overall, with a growth rate of 22 percent).

Between April 1, 2000, and July 1, 2005, 26 counties had population gains of more than 100,000. Of the 20 most populous counties in 2005, nine were located in the West, six in the South, two in the Midwest and three in the Northeast. California has the most counties among the 20 most populous (six), followed by Texas (four), New York (three) and Florida (two).

Can you guess where the next housing booms are going to be?

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