New Book Tells You How to Survive Market

Written by Posted On Wednesday, 02 November 2005 16:00

There are too many real estate books written each year by admittedly smart people who can't begin to express themselves clearly enough to make themselves understandable or interesting.

Then there are those who think the rest of us are stupid and easily led, and that we'll believe anything they tell us in 45 words or less.

Fortunately for us, June Fletcher's House Poor: Pumped Up Prices, Rising Rates and Mortgages on Steroids (Collins, $21.95) falls into neither category.

The veteran Wall Street Journal reporter has written more than just another book; Fletcher has crafted a lifejacket for those who are eager to plunge into real estate's turbulent waters.

My only fear is that the sea of "make a billion in real estate in five minutes with no money down" books will drown out Fletcher's message of cautious optimism and common sense. That cannot happen. My advice is give Fletcher a good read before you buy or sell, because what she is offering is a direct, careful route to making the right decision.

Doing the right thing may include renting until the time is right (meaning not buying at the top of the market). Don't expect your real estate agent to hand you a copy of Fletcher's book because that is hardly the party line.

She also dares to suggest that selling and buying houses without an agent is more possible today than ever, or, at the very least, it shouldn't cost 6 percent to do so. Even more, she spends a chapter telling you how to do it if you so choose.

Fletcher's message is geared to consumers, not real estate agents. That message, simply, is to exercise caution and be smart.

Real estate is cyclical, with as many ups as there are downs. If you buy at peak and the economy goes south, you can be stuck in a house for years waiting for the prices to recover. If you think it can't happen, here's an example: Philadelphia's downtown condo market reached its price peak in 1987, and then the bottom dropped out. Prices did not recover until 1997.

Not only is real estate cyclical but geographical, so booms and busts don't happen in every place at the same time. As Fletcher points out, there are a variety of factors affecting the market, and what is true in Altoona may be less than true in Atlanta.

The bottom line: "... if you simply can't afford to buy without gambling your future, don't," Fletcher writes, concluding the paragraph with the wisdom of my favorite economist, John Tuccillo: "Many people are better off as lifetime renters."

As Fletcher goes to great pains to point out, however, there are ways of getting into a house without losing your shirt. The problem is that money has become so cheap and easy that if you don't know what you are doing, you can easily get in the front door of a house you don't have a prayer of being able to afford if your financial circumstances change ever so slightly.

The trouble is that too many people see their friends buying houses and want to do so as well. They take on mortgage products that appear to be almost free money, at least up-front, not realizing that they'll have to pay the piper somewhere down the road.

Part of the problem, although Fletcher doesn't get into it, is that most buyers look at a house in terms of monthly costs, not how much they will end up paying over 15 or 30 years, or even the very seven years we're told that Americans move.

Look at credit cards. You buy a big-screen TV "on sale" for $12,000, but stretching payments over time at 29 percent, the TV will cost you probably twice that and by the time (if ever) you've paid it off, it is woefully out of date.

If you've been contemplating investing in the market, Fletcher's book can help. In contrast to the vast number of get rich quick books on the market, Fletcher takes a cautious approach to investing:

"Professional investors who flip properties will abandon a market as soon as they sense it is in trouble; amateurs will caught unaware as prices collapse and will be most in danger of foreclosure."

Basically, if you don't know what you are doing, don't do it. How tough is that?

Why should you buy this book? First, it is timely. Second, Fletcher knows what she's talking about and uses experts such as Tuccillo who know their stuff, too. Third, she's a fine writer who has produced a book that gives you what you need to know directly and quickly.

A colleague who is selling her house and wants to buy another just asked me for a book that might help. I didn't even have to turn around to look in my bookcase. She's just walked away with this one.

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