Borrowing from an epic line, the new revisions to the BLS Jobs numbers from April 2022 to March 2023 show an overstatement of jobs by more than 300,000 jobs! Reminds me of another classic line, “You had just ONE job to do…” Well, the year-old numbers they shared are already almost six months old. So now you know why the markets continue to be frustrated by the government agencies, The Federal Reserve Board Members, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and even the President, when they continue to spout “facts” about the economy and jobs that clearly are either old, out of date, or just plain fabrications!
Remember just two short years ago when inflation was transitory? Remember when we were told that spending more than a TRILLION dollars on something called “the inflation reduction act” wasn’t going to add to inflation? Remember another two TRILLION dollars on something called “Build Back Better” that wasn’t going to cause inflation and create MILLIONS of new high paying jobs for those people in the coal and oil industries to help switch everyone over to green new energy? Remember…well, I can go on and on, but you get the picture.
Why is it people don’t think we can’t handle the truth? I was puzzled by what there could possibly be to gain by saying over and over things that were flat out lies? But it became clear to me, it isn’t us; it’s THEM! THEY CAN’T HANDLE THE TRUTH! Well, the market responded yesterday on this news and the 30yr MBS 5.5% coupon was better by 63bps! The 10-year treasury was down by 13bps. The second of these numbers is the real number to watch, because if it falls much further, we could see a dramatic fall in the yield as those who have recently shorted the 10 year, will be forced to cover their short positions and that could lead to a HUGE drop in yields! With more than 20% of that market being shorted, a short squeeze could be significant.
Much will depend on what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says on Friday at Jackson Hole. If he signals a change in position and to stop raising rates; yesterday’s 63 bps could be just the tip of the iceberg! However, if he maintains his tightening bias, we may give it all back, at least for now! So, stay connected, it is important to follow!
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