Realty Viewpoint: Bad News Makes Homebuying Conditions Better

Written by Posted On Wednesday, 26 March 2008 17:00

For those homebuyers who are still waiting for better conditions, here's another miracle headed your way. Orders for durable goods are down 1.7 percent, says the Commerce Department.

What this means is that business spending is slowing down, a precursor to recession in the last eight cycles. Lower demand for machinery is the outcome of economic uncertainty that has caused banks to tighten credit. Consumers are starting to steer clear of big ticket items on the fear that we are already in a recession.

The news is sure to result in more job loss and a rise in unemployment claims. On the news, mortgage interest rates dipped lower to below six percent.

But if you're a homebuyer, you couldn't ask for a better report, except maybe this one -- sales of new homes fell to a 13-year low in February. That means that home buyers weren't tempted by near record interest rates or incentives. Keep in mind this figure is about contracts signed, not houses taken off the market. New home inventory is still at a 9.8-month supply, the highest amount since 1981.

What's interesting is where new home prices are. They dropped over the year by 2.7 percent to $244,100. There's still plenty of room for negotiation. Why?

Existing homes are selling better because they're cheaper. The median existing home was $195,900 in February, down 8.2 percent over last year. Clearly existing sellers are more negotiable.

Another thing hurting new homes is the bloat in McMansions, that many people now can't afford or qualify to buy. Inventories of standing luxury homes inched up two percent in February, while they fell in homes in conventional loan territory by over six percent.

Here's another reason why new home prices have to come down more -- history. Since 1989, new home prices have risen faster than existing home prices only seven times, but since 2004, they've been on a steamroll.

New homes were nearly 30 percent higher ($120,000 - median) than existing homes ($94,300 - median) in 1989, during the last major housing recession. By 2007, new home prices ($247,200 - median) were within 13 percent of existing home prices ($217,900 - median.)

In 2008, new homes were 25 percent higher in cost than existing homes, which suggests the gap is widening.

So let's recap. Home prices are still dropping, and are likely to drop further. Interest rates are likely to drop further. And housing inventories are still bloated, offering the best selection to consumers.

If you're a buyer, my question is -- what else could you possibly want?

Rate this item
(0 votes)
Blanche Evans

"Blanche Evans is a true rainmaker who brings prosperity to everything she touches.” Jan Tardy, Tardy & Associates

I have extensive and award-winning experience in marketing, communications, journalism and art fields. I’m a self-starter who works well with others as well as independently, and I take great pride in my networking and teamwork skills.

Blanche founded evansEmedia.com in 2008 as a copywriting/marketing support firm using Adobe Creative Suite products. Clients include Petey Parker and Associates, Whispering Pines RV and Cabin Resort, Greater Greenville Association of REALTORS®, Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate, Prudential California Realty, MLS Listings of Northern California, Tardy & Associates, among others. See: www.evansemagazine.com, www.ggarmarketclick.com and www.peteyparkerenterprises.com.

Contact Blanche at: [email protected]

evansEmedia.com

Realty Times

From buying and selling advice for consumers to money-making tips for Agents, our content, updated daily, has made Realty Times® a must-read, and see, for anyone involved in Real Estate.