Realty Viewpoint: Paulson's Sweat Drenches News Over Sharp "Down-cline"

Written by Posted On Tuesday, 18 March 2008 17:00

It was a less than impressive on-camera performance. On morning television yesterday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson looked nervous, stumbled over his words, and used strong terms to describe the economic slowdown.

First, he wouldn't provide a direct answer to Matt Bauer's pointed question, "Are we in a recession?" Then, when asked if the government is more interested in Wall Street than Main Street, in reference to the weekend credit extension to Bear Stearns and other investment banks, Paulson dodged once again by saying he didn't believe the Bear Stearns shareholders felt they had been bailed out.

"The focus has got to be on orderly markets," he said, adding that he has faith in the capital markets and that the Federal Reserve will do what it needs to do.

He then outlined the positive steps that he felt would benefit Main Street -- that economic stimulus steps could add as many as 500,000 jobs this year and that tax rebate checks would start arriving in mailboxes on May 2, 2008.

He told CBS that the economy is in a "sharp decline."

If he's panicked, how should the rest of us feel?

That depends a lot on how much in debt you are and how secure your job is -- and your faith in a recovery.

Homebuyers and refinancing homeowners got an extra egg in their Easter baskets with mortgage interest rates dipping below 6 percent again. That's a miracle in light of recent inflation reports.

Sellers got an egg in their basket, too -- new construction on single-family homes dropped by 6.7 percent in February, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 707,000. The lowest building rate in 17 years means less competition on the market while it's still flooded with foreclosures.

Wall Street was already celebrating, despite the failure of Bear Stearns, the fifth largest investment firm, now valued at $2 a share to its new owner JP Morgan, from a high of $159. Shares shot up on the news that things weren't quite so bad at Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs. There was also great hope that the Federal Reserve would be aggressive about slicing short-term interest rates, which would improve borrowing rates for consumers.

And the Fed didn't disappoint -- it cut short-term rates for the third time this year. That will have a positive impact on those most in trouble -- homeowners with adjustable rate loans.

All these short-term fixes only do one thing -- encourage corporations and people to borrow more money. That's the very thing that got us into this fix in the first place.

That could be the real reason Paulson looks so worried. There aren't any fixes, at least not in the short term.

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