Beige Book: Lackluster Housing Market

Written by Posted On Sunday, 29 April 2007 17:00

Adding commentary to recent statistical evidence about the nation's housing market, the Federal Reserve's newest district-by-district economic report says the housing market remains waylaid by over-supply, weak home sales, flat prices and few home starts.

While homes in the moderate price range were selling in a few select markets, bleak conditions were widespread through the 12 Federal Reserve bank districts, revealing a national market gaining more uniformity and less local flavor every day, according to the third "Beige Book" report this year.

Rather than crunching numbers, the eight-times-a-year Federal Reserve report gathers anecdotal commentary on a variety of economic indictors, from agriculture, consumer spending and energy, to employment, major industry sectors' performance and wages.

Comments are solicited from representatives of the reserve's dozen district branch banks as well as from economists, market experts and other sources in those districts.

The latest report is based on pre-April 16 commentary which paints the same pale picture drawn in this year's two previous Beige Book reports -- the housing market is in a rut.

"Residential real estate activity continued to weaken in many districts. Many districts saw a decrease in homebuilding," according to the report's summary.

Here's a brief look at each district.

Boston, First District

Across New England, residential sales where increasing, but prices remained below last year's levels.

In Massachusetts, for example, sales were up in both January and February compared to last year, with February's sales up 1.2 percent. The improved sales came as listings dropped 17 percent in February this year compared to last year.

However, single-family home prices dropped 4 percent and condo prices fell 1.8 percent.

New York, Second District

New York state's housing market remained mixed. Real estate agents said statewide sales activity this year has been moderately lower than last year, while the median sales price is virtually unchanged.

From northern New Jersey, a real estate contact reported high-end homes (over $1.5 million) were languishing on the market, but pockets of more moderately-priced homes revealed some strength. A home building industry contact likewise said homes under $300,000 sold well, but the market overall remained soft with new home prices down from a year ago.

In the Big Apple, Manhattan housing -- co-ops and condos -- showed some resilience in the first quarter as inventories declined with rising sales, but apartment prices were also unchanged from a year ago.

Philadelphia, Third District

While bankers in the district said they expected business and consumer lending to remain on the rise, the opposite was true for mortgage lending.

Demand for residential mortgages was nearly flat, as some bankers noted that consumers were shifting from variable-rate home-equity lines to fixed-rate home-equity loans.

Sources in the retail sector said cautious consumer spending was a result of rising gasoline prices and a slowdown in home price appreciation, leaving little equity to tap for cash.

Cleveland, Fourth District

Home sales held steady, but at levels down from a year ago. New home contractors expect 2007 will be more of the same level of sales activity experienced in the second half of 2006. The curtain will go up in late 2007 on improved sales.

Prices held, thanks to steady sales and new homes that were priced relatively higher than existing properties.

Cautious bankers in larger markets within the district said they had tightened mortgage credit standards even as credit quality remained stable and delinquencies were stable or declining.

Richmond, Fifth District

Housing markets generally softened in some parts of the district during March and early April, according to reports from residential real estate contacts. House prices declined by as much as 2 to 4 percent and condo prices were off 7 to 9 percent, compared to a year ago.

Contacts in Asheville, and Greenville, NC, however, indicated that low- to middle-price houses were moving briskly.

An agent in the Washington, D.C., area noted that move-up buyers were having difficulty finding higher-priced homes inside the beltway due to a lack of inventory.

Atlanta, Sixth District

Residential home sales and construction continued to decline in most areas, especially Florida with both new and existing home sales below year-ago levels in March.

Real estate agents, by-and-large, anticipated that home sales will remain below year-ago levels over the next several months.

Chicago, Seventh District

Residential construction continued to decline in most areas throughout the district as many new residential projects remained on hold and inventories of unsold high-end homes remained high.

Housing market traffic revealed some increase but contacts said converting the traffic to sales was difficult, even with incentives.

The rise in mortgage applications was attributed to the growth in refinancing, which was at the highest level since the fall of 2005, largely due to borrowers trading in adjustable rate mortgages for fixed rate loans. More home owners were tapping existing equity lines, but new home equity loans decreased.

St. Louis, Eighth District

Home sales were unchanged in St. Louis and declined 6 percent in Memphis, but Louisville home sales rose 4 percent and Little Rock's were up 2 percent, year-over-year in February.

The district's mixed market produced falling housing permits in most areas, with Little Rock's down most, by 25 percent. Louisville's housing permits were up 15 percent in February, compared to last year.

Minneapolis, Ninth District

Housing permits were down a whopping 54 percent in March, compared to March 2006 in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area. Condo projects were stalling due to the oversupplied market. One condo project was transformed into a retail/hotel development. However, Williston, N.D., planned its first major housing subdivision in 30 years.

Kansas City, Tenth District

Virtually all cities revealed a weak residential construction business and contacts expect home starts to remain flat for at least several months. Persistent oversupplies also left home sales unchanged from previous weeks and down from a year ago.

As in a few other districts, low- to mid-level priced homes sold relatively well, while more expensive, high-end listings languished. Prices were largely unchanged from a year ago and are expected to remain as such in the coming months.

Dallas, Eleventh District

Dallas, Fort Worth and Austin are facing a glut of new homes and that's depressing prices and forcing builders to lay it on thick with incentives.

The over supply of housing hit the apartment sector as well where demand has been unexpectedly sluggish, particularly in Houston and Dallas. Austin is the exception, enjoying high occupancy rates and rising rents, but with so much new construction underway, Austin is expected to soften as more units are completed.

Existing home inventories were considered moderate by historical standards, but sales continued to weaken as contacts in many industries voiced concern over subprime lending and foreclosures. They blamed slowing sales on tighter lending standards and an increase in cancellations.

Contacts said some sales failed after potential buyers were unable to sell existing homes in California or Florida.

San Francisco, Twelfth District

In most areas, sales for new and existing homes continued to fall as average time on the market rose. Price appreciation remained in many areas, but at a much slower pace than last year.

Developers, however, were not unloading undeveloped land suggesting they expect market snores to be limited.

This is the one district where numerous contacts noted areas of strong stabilization in the pace of home sales and price appreciation as well as improvements in the level of multifamily constructions.

One banking contact reported that residential mortgage lenders have been discounting assessed home values when making new mortgage loans.

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Broderick Perkins

A journalist for more than 35-years, Broderick Perkins parlayed an old-school, daily newspaper career into a digital news service - Silicon Valley, CA-based DeadlineNews.Com. DeadlineNews.Com offers editorial consulting services and editorial content covering real estate, personal finance and consumer news. You can find DeadlineNews.Com on LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter  and Google+

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