Home Sales, Listings Stats Show Turning in Market

Written by Posted On Thursday, 22 February 2007 16:00

You've heard the phrase, "The devil's in the details," and that is ever so true in the statistical analysis of real estate. Real estate definitely moves on the level of supply and demand. The more houses on the market coupled with the less demand interprets into dropping prices. As houses sell (because the prices finally realign) and the inventory shrinks coupled with growing demand, prices start edging up.

Well, the market is starting to turn in various areas around the country. And in the Washington, D.C. area, it's really looking better than last year at this time. Sales in January were up 18 percent and in neighboring Fairfax County; sales jumped 12 percent from the same time a year earlier.

In the market overall listings are down -- some because they sold and others because they were withdrawn and still others because the sellers were distressed and went into bankruptcy or short sales. However, the effect on the overall market will be the same, shrinking inventory means buyers won't have as much leverage as they did just a few months ago.

While the transition market was tough on a lot of people, we may have hit the bottom of the trough. Most buyers and sellers don't realize it yet, but the numbers are pointing at a different market in the future than what we've been crawling through the last 18 months.

Now, one could look at last year's numbers and say, "Well, of course the numbers are up, it was so bad last year." Yes, last year was down for most of the time, however, the numbers are still true. Listings have dropped from their high in this market by nearly 50 percent and prices are either maintaining or moving upward. (Keep in mind, sellers, there are still plenty of competitors, so price the house to move.)

The National Association of Realtors reported last week that nationally, sales were down 10.1 percent at 6.24 million units for the fourth quarter of the year. Nevertheless, six states had increases in the sales numbers and one hit the same level as a year before.

Price drops have also slowed. In fact, nearly half of the reported metropolitan areas NAR tracks showed price increases over a year ago. Fourteen metro areas had double-digit annual increases and while 73 areas had price declines, nearly the same number (71) had price improvements.

Are we really at the bottom? David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, thinks so: "This information confirms 2006 was the year of contraction, and hopefully the fourth quarter was the bottom of this current business cycle," he said in an online press release. "Home sales are leveling at historically high levels and examination of data within the quarter shows home prices stabilizing toward the end. When we get the figures for this spring, I expect to see a discernible improvement."

Locally, you can check out how it's going as well. First of all, you want to see how many houses are on the market -- this would be called "available." Then you want to see how many houses were marked or labeled "under contract" in the last 30 days. The contracts show us how active the market is and where it's headed in the future.

Divide the "under contract" houses into the number of "availables" and that results in your absorption rate. For instance, if your market has 10,000 houses for sale and in the last 30 days, 2,500 were marked "under contract," that market has a 4-month supply of houses. What this means is that if no other houses came on the market, it would take 4 months to eat up the inventory.

So what's a buyers market versus a sellers market? Unfortunately, all markets react differently. History has shown that a true sellers market hits when there's a 2 or 3 month supply of houses on the market or less (leaning more toward 2 months). If it's above 3 months but below 5 or 6 months, then you're in an equitable market. Great houses priced right will sell quickly and at or above the asking price. When the supply swells above 6 months, you have definitely entered a buyers market.

Once you see the prices edging up -- if you've been waiting -- get off the fence and buy. For sellers, price right today so you can sell it quickly and move into that move-up house before you're priced-out of your dream home.

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