Consumers Jittery, Confused About Home Prices

Written by Posted On Monday, 12 February 2007 16:00

A growing number of consumers are concerned that home prices are due for a tumble in their housing market. They also appear confused about prices that have already fallen.

Their mixed emotions may be hurting sales.

Nearly half of all consumers (47 percent) say they think a housing bubble and collapse of housing prices is very likely (16 percent) or somewhat likely (31 percent) to visit their neighborhood in the next three years, according to the latest "Experian-Galllup Personal Credit Index" measurement released Feb. 1.

The report comes on the heels of the PMI U.S. Market Risk Index, revealing scores increased for 34 of the nation's 50 largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA), resulting, on average, in a greater chance home prices are due for a fall or continued decline, according to Walnut Creek, CA-based PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.

The national average risk index rose from 328 during the third quarter last year to 342 during the fourth quarter with 19 MSAs facing a greater than 50 percent chance that home prices will decline, up from 18 MSAs in the previous quarter.

Revealing the heightened level of concern, in the Experian survey, the 47 percent who think a home price drop is coming within three years, was up from 37 percent of Americans (a 21.2 percent increase) who felt the same way in May 2005 and 42 percent in April 2006.

Fear of falling fortunes was greatest in the West (52 percent) and East (49 percent), where prices have been harder hit in the past six months to a year.

Less fear was felt in the Midwest (41 percent) and the South (44 percent), even though some southern markets, including Florida, have experienced some home price flattening and declines.

Revealing fear may be denting home sales, more renters (57 percent) than home owners (43 percent) are betting on home price declines.

There was less fear when it came to home price drops over the shorter term. About one in five consumers (18 percent) thought the average price of houses in their local area will decrease over the next year. Still, the amount is up from 5 percent who felt this way in May 2005 and 11 percent in April 2006.

Expectations for a decrease in average housing prices in the next year, again, were greatest in the West (23 percent) and the East (22 percent).

The disparity in the percentages for longer term and shorter term home price declines could be because of consumer confusion. Some markets have already felt home prices declines and housing market reports are clashing.

Some housing market reports promise "the end is here," that a recovery is due in 2007. Other reports warn "the worst is yet to come."

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, but if the experts are undecided, consumers are in the dark too.

"Housing market conditions may not have reached bottom at this point, with 57 percent of renters thinking there is the potential for a price collapse in their local areas over the next few years and 18 percent of all Americans expecting prices to decline during the year ahead," said Ty Taylor, president of Experian Consumer Direct.

"Still, there is reason for optimism given the local nature of the residential real-estate market and the price resilience it creates, as reflected by the 47 percent of Americans who expect housing prices to increase over the next 12 months and the 33 percent who expect them to remain the same," Taylor added.

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Broderick Perkins

A journalist for more than 35-years, Broderick Perkins parlayed an old-school, daily newspaper career into a digital news service - Silicon Valley, CA-based DeadlineNews.Com. DeadlineNews.Com offers editorial consulting services and editorial content covering real estate, personal finance and consumer news. You can find DeadlineNews.Com on LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter  and Google+

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