Investor Talk Turns to Foreign Markets

Written by Posted On Wednesday, 20 September 2006 17:00

You don't hear much about the global real estate market these days, at least in the circles I've been traveling lately.

Back in the late 1990s, when investors were wondering where to go next, the experts kept finding new destinations: Russia or Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia were names that kept popping up.

I remember the 1997 National Association of Realtors meeting in New Orleans, where I consumed my first, and last, muffaletta, and where the NAR will be meeting again in mid-November. There were agreements being signed with representatives of a couple of dozen real estate organizations in the former Soviet bloc, as well as with associations more in line with our way of doing business, such as the Republic of Ireland.

American investors were into doing the global thing for a few years -- at least we were hearing a lot about it -- even after some financial problems in an overheated Southeast Asia market created a bit of havoc in the mortgage markets in the fall of 1999.

The Counselors of Real Estate, for example, sent a team into Gdansk, Poland, in 2000 to offer expertise to the fledgling commercial real estate market there. I attended more seminars than I can remember at which experts in global investing explained the good and bad points: the riskier the investment, the bigger and faster the investment would pay off.

Then came 9/11, and global investment seemed to be less of an option for many investors. The residential housing boom and the redevelopment of older cities that followed, as well as a turning inward and security concerns, seemed to take much of the excitement out of putting your money in a foreign project.

The recent slowdown in the U.S. real estate market and relative stability of the Asian market has a lot of investors looking into opportunities in Japan, China and India.

Osaka, Shanghai and Tokyo are considered top Asia Pacific cities in terms of real estate investment and development prospects, according to Emerging Trends in Real Estate Asia Pacific 2007, just published by the Urban Land Institute and PricewaterhouseCoopers.

Osaka and Tokyo are rated as the first and third best markets, respectively, in which to both invest in and develop property. Rising investor enthusiasm and demand for property in those cities is indicative of the upturn in Japan's economy -- still considered the most important in the Asia Pacific region.

"A mixture of strong economic growth, an end to deflation, and the fact that, by Japanese standards, its markets are coming off a very low base has boosted investor interest in property assets from Tokyo to Osaka," the report states.

"The sheer size of the Japanese property sector -- by far the largest in the Asia Pacific region -- makes it a magnet for those struggling to deploy their funds," according to the ULI report. Sixty-four percent of the survey respondents advised buying hotel/resort properties in Shanghai, and 62 percent, industrial/distribution properties.

"As China opens … and more goods are transported along the Yangtze, the need for more sophisticated supply channels is rising," one of the survey respondents said. Fifty-nine percent recommended buying office properties, showing a vote of confidence despite already explosive growth in that sector.

Shanghai's apartment/residential sector rated less favorably than the other property sectors -- only 32 percent recommended buying -- possibly reflecting worries over a housing decline, the report stated.

In addition to Osaka, Shanghai and Tokyo, the top rated group of cities for investment includes Singapore and Taipei. All are listed as offering promising opportunities to buy most property types.

'"Go to these markets and buy if you can," is the message from survey respondents,' says the report.

In the second group are strong development markets: Ho Chi Minh City, Bangalore, Mumbai and Shanghai. The third group consists of markets less strong as those at the top, but which still offer solid development and investment opportunities: Guangzhou, Bangkok, Beijing, Seoul, New Delhi and Kuala Lumpur.

In the fourth group are the "hold" cities -- Hong Kong, Melbourne and Sydney -- all mature, with a great deal of transparency.

The fifth category contains the challenging markets of Jakarta and Manila, which have relatively low investment and development ratings and limited interest from buyers.

Asia is not the only region attractive to foreign investment.

More than 13 percent of the homes sold in Spain within the first quarter of the year were acquired by non-Spaniards, according to SpainREI, which tracks the Spanish market. Out of the 233,669 homes purchased between January and March, 33,241 were bought by foreigners and non-residents and 200,428 by Spanish residents. This total of 233,669 homes sold represents almost a 20 percent increase from the corresponding quarter in 2005.

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