As residents return to New Orleans, Houston and other areas hit or spared by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, new questions are arising about housing. Some will find a way to salvage their homes, while others will find total devastation. Hundreds of thousands of people will have to start over somewhere else, which will make for the largest relocation effort in U.S. history.
The fact that most of the devastation occurred in the gulf states is significant as oil production was shut down prior to both storms, and some oil refineries and platforms put at risk by Rita in Houston, Beaumont, Port Arthur and Lake Charles are not yet operational.
With lighter devastation than anticipated, some economists believe that crude prices will drop. Others insist that prices will be between from $60 to $80 a barrel. This is a sharp change from last year's $41 a barrel average. Economists believe that the rise in prices will hurt economic growth as well as consumer spending.
But the National Association of Realtors ended the month of August with a surprise announcement -- existing home sales for the nation was the second-highest pace on record, a two-percent increase which ended the month with more closings than in July and nearly eight percent higher than August last year.
The NAR says it's unsure how housing will be affected because results will be skewed due to the interruption of sales in gulf coast states. Some multiple listings services which serve the hardest-hit areas are not back online yet, so data-gathering will be slow and incomplete.
Also, mortgage rates ticked up slightly, but it is still below the average for August last year.
David Lereah, the NAR's chief economist says that fundamentals for housing remain positive. "With a general background of growing population and favorable affordability conditions, home sales are staying at very healthy levels," he said.
In August, housing inventories were tight, creating above-normal home price appreciation. While inventories rose 3.5 percent in August, to 2.86 million existing homes available for sale, that represents only a 4.7-month supply at the current sales pace. Historically, a supply of around six months is reflective of a balanced market.
But that was before half a million homes were lost on the gulf coast, with some cities nearly wiped out completely. It will take years to rebuild, and meanwhile, a majority of those residents will have to be relocated elsewhere, which could increase demand in neighboring communities from Dallas to Atlanta.
Real estate in Houston, Austin, and Dallas was already on the upswing before Katrina hit. Now rentals are being absorbed quickly and there's plenty of anticipation that evacuees may stay put. In the Alamo city of San Antonio, officials expect to add 25,000 new permanent residents due to the hurricanes.
But with millions displaced, cities across the nation could get new residents, too. It will be a while before officials know where hurricane refugees are resettling.
What does it all mean to you? Despite the challenges presented by the hurricanes and their aftermath, overall, the housing market is still very healthy.