Migration patterns reveal Americans are fleeing Northeast and West markets where housing is often expensive and putting down stakes in the South and elsewhere where homes are less expensive, according to a recent U.S. Census Bureau study.
While "Domestic Net Migration in the United States: 2000 to 2004" is a statistical analysis of population shifts only, without explaining reasons for the shifts, the report does help quantify "Boom May Be Spilling Over To More Affordable Housing Markets", a RealtyTimes.com report published earlier this year about shifts in the housing boom.
Among the 25 largest metropolitan areas, the report says American migratory flight was most apparent from the New York metropolitan area where the median price of homes in the last quarter of 2005 was $459,600, more the twice the national average of $213,000, according to the National Association of Realtors.
New York's average annual net outflow from 2000 to 2004 was 211,014 residents, an out-migration of about 11.4 people per thousand per year. Fewer people fled San Francisco, CA, where the median price was $718,700, but at a greater rate --14.7 people per thousand per year or an average 60,984 per year.
After New York and San Francisco the greatest rates of out-migration occurred in high-priced housing towns of Boston, MA ($497,500) and Los Angeles, CA ($568,400) as well as more affordable Chicago, IL ($265,600); Detroit ($156,200) and Cleveland, OH ($135,700).
"I think more and more Americans are concerned with quality of life. They are growing tired of being enslaved to long hours and stressful commutes and jobs just so that they can own a large home in a prestigious community," said financial counselor Eric Tyson, a co-author of real estate and financial "Dummies" guides, including "Home Buying For Dummies" (John P. Wiley, $21.99) and author of "Mind Over Money" (CDS Books, $21.95).
"However, people should do their homework before jumping in with both feet and selling one house to buy another in a completely different part of the country. Make sure you understand all of the pros and cons of places you're considering and that you're not simply falling in love with the concept of a better or easier life," Tyson added.
Housing is a primary factor for out-migration, but not the only reason some residents leave. For example, Detroit, MI, and Cleveland have cheaper housing, but are in the Top 25 "Most Dangerous Cities" among 369 rated by independent publisher Morgan Quitno.
On the other hand if homes are priced low enough, crime concerns may pale. Atlanta, GA, ($170,200) had an average net in-migration of more than 31,000 people per year or 6.9 people per thousand per year and Dallas, TX, ($145,500) had an average net in-migration of more than 17,119 people per year for an average 3.1 people per thousand per year. Both ranked in the Top 25 "Most Dangerous Cities" list.
In addition to Dallas and Atlanta, metropolitan areas with high in-migration rates include Houston, TX, ($146,300); Riverside, CA, ($392,300); Phoenix, AZ, ($268,400); Tampa, FL, ($223,000) and Portland, OR, ($245,700), indicating climate is also often a factor.
Dane Hahn, a broker with EXIT 11 Real Estate in Stratham, NH, said good climate, rather than prices, weighed more in his decision to buy a Florida home.
"When you come from New England, where the warm "swimming pool or boating season" is only 10 weeks, the year-round outdoor weather has enormous appeal, and add to that at least an extra hour of sunlight everyday, and well, Florida calls," Hahn said.
"So I don't think the prices of homes in Florida is as much the reason for moves to southern climates as it is "icing on the cake" once you decide to go there," he added.
When the U.S. Census looked at the county level, the greatest average annual number of people fleeing from 2000 to 2004 fled from Los Angeles, CA; Cook, IL; Kings, NY; Queens, NY; Santa Clara (Silicon Valley), CA; Dallas, TX; Miami-Dade, FL; Wayne, MI; Alameda, CA and Harris, TX.
Some of the shift, however, was to other areas within the same states. Riverside, CA; Clark, NV; Maricopa, AZ, San Bernardino, CA; and Collin, TX, saw the greatest average annual number of people migrating in.
"Nearly all of the 25 counties with the most net in-migration between 2000 and 2004 are located in the South or the West, with seven in Florida and five each in California and Texas," the U.S. Census reported.
Statewide, New York, California, Illinois, Massachusetts and New Jersey saw the greatest raw numbers of people leaving, while Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina had the greatest number of people arriving.
"It is not uncommon for Californians to sell their houses and walk away with a sizable six-figure check. They can use that to pay cash for a median priced home in a place like Boise or Reno, more move into a luxury home and still have money left over," said Vickie Lewis, president of the Lewis Group, LLC, in Boise, ID.
The Census said most states that experienced net in-migration in both periods (1990-2000 and 2000-2004) are in the South and the West, but the pattern is not geographically uniform.
In the Northeast, Maine and Rhode Island reversed from net out-migration states in the 1990s to net in-migration states during 2000–2004, as did Maryland in the South and Wyoming in the West.
Two southern states (Mississippi and Oklahoma), two Midwestern states (Indiana and Minnesota), and one western state (Utah) switched from net in-migration states in the 1990s to net out-migration states in 2000–2004.
But the Census report's coverage ends in 2004. What may have been a flight from Utah, now appears to be a housing market boom of people trading spaces. Since the Census report, anecdotal evidence points to another reversal in migration patterns.
"We have seen a huge increase in the number of people from out of state drawn to Utah because of both the growing job market here and our affordable real estate market. This formula has created an increase in the median sales price in Salt Lake County during the first quarter of over 16 percent, with some areas of the valley experiencing growth of over 25 percent," said Marcie Hahn, Dan Hahn's daughter and a real estate agent with Williams Realty in Salt Lake City.
"Our market has dramatically shifted in not much time at all from a strong buyers market to a very strong sellers market, with multiple offers now the norm and listings going under contract in record time," Marcie Hahn added.
The Census also reported at the broadest geographic levels -- the four regions and their nine divisions -- differences in migration patterns are apparent.
The Northeast and Midwest reveal an overwhelming out-migration and the South and West revealing overall in-migration. However, the West is split. The Mountain division reveals net in-migration while the more expensive Pacific division reveals net out-migration.
