Builders are tired of being hammered by the press, but slowly, some writers are beginning to build a case for buying a home.
That's because the mood couldn't be gloomier in housing.
Toll Brothers CEO Robert Toll says that "ceaseless" talk of a recession continues to dampen the "mood of consumers," ... "whether or not a recession actually occurs," keeping pent-up demand for housing "on the sidelines."
His sentiments were accurately expressed in the latest new home sales results. The Commerce Department says new home sales in January fell to the slowest pace since February 1995, and that prices have returned to September 2004 levels, or $216,000 for a median-priced new home.
New home inventories rose to 9.9 months on hand, the most bloated in more than 26 years.
That mirrors the dismal showing in existing home sales reported by the National Association of Realtors. In January, sales were down 0.4 percent from December, but 23.4 percent below January 2006.
Consumers sentiment is down, the economy is slowing, and many feel we may already be in a recession.
The natural instinct is to roll up the driveway, shutter the windows and wait for the financial storm to blow over, but not everyone is locking themselves in the basement.
Some members of the financial press are beginning to suggest that a bottom is near, and that buyers should get out and start looking for bargains in homes.
Time Magazine ran a piece this week titled, "Ignore the Headlines!" by Dan Kadlec, where he notes that Fed rate cuts always "lift the economy eventually." He also makes the case that buying a home today will beat waiting another year even if home prices drop an additional 10 percent.
To buy a $218,900 home at 5.5 percent is $994.31 a month. To buy next year at $197,010 at 6 percent will cost $994.94.
The irony is that in the time Kadlec did his research and when the magazine came out, interest rates were already back over 6 percent, making his example all the more compelling.
The Motley Fool's Marko Djuranovic wrote on February 25th, 2008 that "the shape of the U.S. housing market is not nearly as bad as some analysts would have you believe." In his spirited defense of home prices as being far from overvalued, he points out that home sizes have increased 47 percent from 1973 (1,525 to 2,248 square feet), and that today's homes feature sturdier construction materials, more expensive siding, outdoor amenities, more complex wiring, sophisticated heating and cooling systems, and larger kitchens.
"And the moment that the supply of existing homes begins to shrink, potential first-time home buyers will wake up to the fact that between low interest rates and homes that sell at (or below) replacement cost, they can grab the deal of a lifetime," says Djuranovic.
As Kadlec points out, you just never know, but you may not save anything to wait, and you've "spent a year living someplace you'd rather not be."
