Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index jumped as prices fell for the sixth-straight week and mortgage rates declined for the third week in a row. But a lack of new listings is holding back sales.

House hunters are wading into the market as mortgage rates and home prices continue to decline, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

Mortgage-purchase applications increased for the fourth week in a row and Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index—a seasonally adjusted measure of requests to tour homes, make an offer and/or talk to a Redfin agent about a home search—jumped to its highest level since last May during the week ending March 26.

“My phone is ringing, and it’s usually first-time buyers or investors,” said San Francisco Redfin agent Ali Mafi. “First-time buyers are interested in looking at homes because prices have come down, though they’re still concerned about high mortgage rates. Investors who can pay in cash are honing in on luxury San Francisco condos because prices on those have dropped even more significantly than the overall market.”

The uptick in early-stage demand has yet to translate into more home sales. Pending sales dropped 19% year over year nationwide in the four weeks ending March 26, the biggest decline in about two months. Demand for homes hasn’t yet translated into an improvement in sales mainly because would-be buyers are limited by lack of supply.

New listings of homes for sale declined 22%, one of the biggest drops since the start of the pandemic; homeowners are reluctant to sell because they don’t want to give up a low mortgage rate. The lack of new listings is causing a growing share of homes to fly off the market quickly: Nearly half of homes are selling within two weeks, the largest share since June.

Home prices drop in over half of the country, but rise in some areas

While the scarcity of new listings is holding back sales nearly everywhere in the U.S., prices are dropping fast in some parts of the country and increasing in others.

Home prices dropped in more than half (28) of the 50 most populous U.S. metros, with the biggest drop in Austin, TX (-15.2% YoY). Next come four northern California metros: San Jose, CA (-12.9%), San Francisco (-11.7%), Sacramento, CA (-11.4%), and Oakland, CA (-10.8%). Those are the biggest annual declines since at least 2015 for Austin and Sacramento.

On the flip side, sale prices increased most in Milwaukee, where they rose 14.1% year over year. Next come Fort Lauderdale, FL (8.5% YoY), Virginia Beach, VA (6.9%), West Palm Beach, FL (6.7%) and Providence, RI (6.4%).

On a national level, the median U.S. home-sale price fell 1.8% year over year to $360,500, marking the sixth straight week of declines after more than a decade of increases.

“Prices are still rising quickly in some places while they are down by double digits in big tech hubs, so it’s important for prospective buyers to work with an expert local agent,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “One thing that’s true almost everywhere: It’s difficult to find a desirable, well-priced home for sale, so offer and negotiation strategies differ depending on where you’re looking.”

Leading indicators of homebuying activity:

• For the week ending March 30, average 30-year fixed mortgage rates dropped to 6.32%, the third straight week of declines. The daily average was 6.59% on March 30.
• Mortgage-purchase applications during the week ending March 24 increased 2% from a week earlier, seasonally adjusted, marking the fourth straight week of increases. Purchase applications were up 19% from a month earlier, but down 35% from a year earlier.
• The seasonally adjusted Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index jumped to its highest level since September during the week ending March 26. It was up 6% from a week earlier, but down 24% from a year earlier.
• Google searches for “homes for sale” were up about 44% from the trough they hit in December during the week ending March 25, but down about 17% from a year earlier.
• Touring activity as of March 26 was up about 20% from the start of the year, compared with a 24% increase at the same time last year, according to home tour technology company ShowingTime.

Key housing market takeaways for 400+ U.S. metro areas:

Unless otherwise noted, this data covers the four-week period ending March 26. Redfin’s weekly housing market data goes back through 2015.

• The median home sale price was $360,500, down 1.8% from a year earlier. That’s the sixth week in a row of prices declining annually after more than a decade of increases. The latter is according to Redfin’s monthly dataset, which goes back through 2012.
• The median asking price of newly listed homes was $392,225, up 1.4% year over year.
• The monthly mortgage payment on the median-asking-price home was $2,518 at a 6.32% mortgage rate, the current weekly average. Monthly mortgage payments are down slightly from the peak they reached three weeks ago, but up 16% ($354) from a year ago.
• Pending home sales were down 19.2% year over year, the biggest decline in nearly two months.
• Pending home sales fell in all 50 of the most populous U.S. metros. They fell most in Las Vegas (-52.6% YoY), Sacramento (-48.6%), San Jose (-46.4%), Oakland (-45.4%) and Seattle (-45.2%).
• New listings of homes for sale fell 21.7% year over year. New listings have been dropping by about 21% to 22% on a year-over-year basis for the last month.
• New listings declined in all 50 of the most populous U.S. metros, with the biggest declines in Sacramento (-48.8% YoY), Oakland (-44.3%), San Francisco (-41.8%), Riverside, CA (-39.7%) and San Diego, CA (-37.9%). New listings declined least in the South: Nashville, TN (-1.1% YoY) saw the smallest drop, followed by Dallas (-3.3%), Fort Worth, TX (-3.4%), Austin (-4.8%) and Houston (-9.3%).
• Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) were up 13.9% from a year earlier, the smallest increase in more than four months.
• Months of supply—a measure of the balance between supply and demand, calculated by the number of months it would take for the current inventory to sell at the current sales pace—was 2.8 months, down from 3.5 months a month earlier and up from 1.9 months a year earlier.
• 47% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within the first two weeks on the market, the highest level since June, but down from 53% a year earlier.
• Homes that sold were on the market for a median of 41 days. That’s up from 24 days a year earlier and the record low of 18 days set in May.
• 26% of homes sold above their final list price, the highest share in more than three months but down from 49% a year earlier.
• On average, 4.9% of homes for sale each week had a price drop, up from 2.2% a year earlier.
• The average sale-to-list price ratio, which measures how close homes are selling to their final asking prices, was 98.6%, the highest level in four months but down from 101.7% a year earlier.

To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-homebuying-demand-increases

Despite slim pickings and affordability challenges, buyers got a jump on spring shopping in March, but rising rates could cause a late-spring frost

Spring is officially here, and like green shoots emerging from the bleak winter, new data suggests that more buyers are back in the market, although more subdued compared to a year ago. According to the Realtor.com^® Monthly Housing Trends Report released today, the recent six-month surge in active listings lost momentum, moderating to 59.9% year-over-year, and time on market shrank to 54 days, from January’s high of 74 days, as buyers eased back into the market in March, but higher mortgage rates could freeze them back out. 

“Signs show that buyers are active in the spring housing market, even if they aren’t as numerous as they were during the pandemic. Amid fewer new choices on the market and still rising home prices, home shoppers have shown that they are very rate sensitive, only jumping back in the market when rates dip, and so what happens with rates this spring will likely play a strong role in determining whether the housing market bumps along or picks up speed this year,” said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for Realtor.com^®. “With so much built up equity, home sellers are still faring well, but many are sitting on the sidelines. The usual seasonal pick-up in buyer demand appears to be underway, one of several factors that make spring the Best Time to Sell. With an uncertain market ahead, it may be even more important for potential sellers to aim for this year’s seasonal sweet spot.”

Now may be the best time to sell, and homeowners need to put their best foot forward

If homeowners are planning to sell in 2023, now is the time to get ready. Realtor.com^®’s Best Time to Sell analysis found that nationally, the week of April 16-22, 2023 will bring sellers the best combination of market conditions this year, including higher home prices, fewer other homes for sale, a faster sale, and stronger demand. 

"Well-priced, move-in ready homes with curb appeal in desirable areas are still receiving multiple offers and selling for over the asking price in many parts of the country," said Realtor.com^®'s Executive News Editor Clare Trapasso. "So this spring, it's especially important for sellers to make their homes as attractive as possible to appeal to as many buyers as possible. They should make any necessary repairs, spruce up the landscaping, and invest in staging and professional photographs. Homes that are priced too high, are in need of major repairs, or aren't presented professionally are often sitting on the market for longer and sometimes selling for under the initial asking price."

March 2023 Housing Metrics – National

Lack of new homes coming on to the market a drag on home sales

The U.S. inventory of active listings continued to climb in March over last year’s lows, but the rate of growth cooled slightly from the brisk pace seen the previous two months. With new listings remaining scarce in March, the rise in the number of homes for sale is a reflection of more time spent on the market compared to last year rather than an influx of new sellers. A lack of new homes to the market continues to be a drag on home sales; attitudes toward housing worsened in February, especially among potential sellers, which likely signals ongoing weakness in the number of new homes for sale this year. Higher interest rates continue to create affordability challenges for buyers, and fewer homes went under contract compared to last year. 

• The U.S. supply of active listings for sale rose 59.9% compared to this time last year, but it is still 49.6% below pre-pandemic 2017 - 2019 levels, on average. There were 211,000 more homes available to buy in March compared to one year ago.
• Newly-listed homes for sale continued to fall in March (-20.1%) compared to this time last year. This is a higher rate of decline than last month’s 15.9% decrease and 29.7% below pre-pandemic 2017 - 2019 levels. Pending listings, or homes under contract with a buyer, declined year-over-year (-24.5%). 
• The number of homes for sale across the 50 largest metros was up 74.4% compared to a year ago. The South saw the highest growth in active listings (+127.4%). 
• Among the 50 largest U.S. metros, 47 markets saw active inventory increase compared to last March, with the most growth in Austin (+312.2%), Raleigh (+273.7%), and Nashville (+253.3%). Only three markets had inventory declines on a year-over-year basis, including Milwaukee (-17.2%), Hartford (-17.0%), and New York (-0.9%).

Home prices continue to rise but could decline compared to last year as early as summer

In March, national median list prices continued to rise year-over-year, but the rate at which prices are rising slowed to the lowest level since June 2020, in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. At this rate of slowing, list prices could decline relative to last year as early as this summer, following the recent national median sale price decline, which fell annually for the first time in 10 years last month. The share of homes with price reductions is up significantly from last year, but dipped below 2017–2019 pre-pandemic levels in February and continued to decline in March, indicating that the smaller number of homeowners who are putting their homes up for sale appear to be readjusting their home price expectations to the realities of today’s market. 

• The national median listing price was $424,000 in March, up from $415,000 in February. Annual list price growth continued to slow to 6.3% over last year, the lowest rate of growth since June 2020, in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. 
• Among the 50 largest U.S. metros, the biggest annual listing price gains continue to be in the Midwest, up 14.1%, on average from last year. The metros with the biggest asking price increases were Memphis, Tenn. (+40.3%), Milwaukee (+26.3%), and Kansas City, Mo.  (+17.7%); however, in these metros the mix of inventory also changed and more larger, expensive homes are for sale today.
• In March, 12.6% of active listings had their price reduced, up from 5.8% a year ago.
• Nine out of the largest 50 markets saw their median list price decline in March. Large southern metros (+9.1 percentage points) continued to see the largest increase in the share of listings with price reductions, and the greatest year-over-year declines in the median list price were seen in Austin, Texas (-8.4% year-over-year), Las Vegas (-6.7%), and New Orleans (-5.1%). 

Homes are taking longer to sell, but not as long as pre-pandemic levels

A typical home spent more time on market compared to last year, although after rising steadily from summer 2022, the usual seasonal pickup in the sales pace shrank the gap and homes sold faster in March than in January and February, suggesting that buyers are active in the market, even if they are not as numerous as this time last year. Even though the typical home listing was on the market for more than two weeks longer than this time last year, homes are still selling just over two weeks faster on average than before the pandemic boom. 

• In March, the typical home spent 54 days on market, 18 days longer than this time last year, but still 15 days faster than the pre-pandemic March 2017-2019 average. 
• Across the 50 largest U.S. metros, time on market was lower in March relative to the national pace, 46 days on average, and was 16 days slower than March 2022. 
• Time on market increased compared to last year in all 50 metros with the greatest increases in Raleigh, N.C. (+42 days), Kansas City, Mo. (+37 days), and Austin, Texas (+37 days). 

March 2023 Housing Metrics – 50 Largest U.S. Metro Areas 

*Some St. Louis listing metrics have been excluded while data is under review.

Methodology

Realtor.com^® housing data as of March 2023. Listings include the active inventory of existing single-family homes and condos/townhomes/rowhomes/co-ops for the given level of geography on Realtor.com; new construction is excluded unless listed via an MLS that provides listing data to Realtor.com. Realtor.com^® data history goes back to July 2016. 50 largest U.S. metropolitan areas as defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). 

Business is uncertain, as the future is an uncertain place to be in no matter what industry your business or organization is part of. Because uncertain times are a commonality, how do small to medium-sized businesses or startup companies find their way through the many uncertain times we all face? Through many of my writings, I explore my Hard Trend Methodology where a business leader or organization as a whole realigns their focus on Hard Trend future certainties to determine what they know is certain to happen. Acting as a metaphorical compass that guides you through times of extreme uncertainty, Hard Trends point directly at the evidence of what you can be certain about by highlighting what will continue. This then leads a business or organization to Anticipatory action!

Hard Trends can be heeded by all, but what I like to focus on intently is the importance of their role in the exponential growth of small to medium-sized business and startup companies. Larger corporations and organizations have the money to spend on small to large changes, but even though smaller businesses do not always have the financial pull to create instant change, they do have the power of Hard Trends in their corner!

Small to medium-sized businesses can use these insights and skills to disrupt the industry from the inside out and set themselves much farther ahead than they could ever imagine.

Three Principles of Hard Trends

A mastery of my Hard Trend Methodology revolves around diagnosing the three key principles that are common Hard Trend indicators — Technology, Demographics, and Regulation.

Start simple by asking questions about these three principles. 

• Where are you certain technology is headed? 
• What technology will undoubtedly continue to increase in popularity? 
• What is your target demographic and what are you certain about regarding their needs?
• What do you know is true when it comes to government, laws, and regulations?

As small business leaders, you cannot sit idle hoping that the larger competitors will just slowly go downhill. Your answers to those questions about my Hard Trend principles are clues leading to an Anticipatory way to significantly and positively disrupt the world. Basing business decisions around these answers will result in creating your own certainty!

Let’s look at some case studies that took Anticipatory advantage of technology, demographics, and regulations to either grow in their industry or avoid disruption completely.

Technology: The Digital Workplace

Technology is an ever-changing landscape with constant advancements, but that does not mean it is ambiguous and unpredictable. Digital acceleration brings new certainties with it that can either disrupt or help you disrupt; it just depends on whether you are leveraging them to your advantage.

For instance, in lieu of the constant rise in the Three Digital Accelerators — Processing/Computing Power, Bandwidth, and Storage — remote work is now easier than ever for many. Meetings for both remote and in-person employees cannot be avoided, and while several individuals have long used the phrase “that could’ve been an email” during past years of remote work, screen sharing is not something that can be emailed. However, not everything needs to be a live video conference, which is where Loom came in.

Loom is a company that allows employees to easily and more conveniently host video meetings asynchronously as opposed to live, making virtual work even more efficient. The entrepreneurial and Anticipatory minds at Loom had identified two tech-based Hard Trends — the first was that video was growing exponentially with regard to human communication, and the second was that remote work was accelerating, as I mentioned above.

Looking forward, we can all agree that Augmented Reality (A.R.) and Virtual Reality (V.R.) are accelerating technologies, and their existence are Hard Trend future certainties that can be leveraged by other entrepreneurs. A.R. and V.R. will inevitably make it easier for remote workers to see what on-site employees are seeing effectively!

Demographics: Functional Disruption for Our Furry Friends

Demographics in business is more than just counting the number of individuals in a certain area, age group, or ethnicity; it is about understanding their spending habits, life stages, and lifestyle. Identifying a target market and how your business can satisfy their needs is a proactive way to leverage this Hard Trend.

Younger generations have placed a new priority on their pets. A small business that spawned out of this Hard Trend in demographics is Pumpkin Pet Insurance. Pet insurance is a relatively new concept that focuses on the demographic of today’s pet owners and their desire to care for their furry friends as they would their children.

But how did Pumpkin Pet Insurance decide that pet owners needed insurance? Some of the identifiable future certainties of the pet owner demographic include the reality that fewer adults are having children and instead are adopting pets more frequently, the rise in medical costs for animals, and the amount of money pet owners spend.

This discovery led Pumpkin Pet Insurance to success, and should serve as an example for other small business owners in the pet industry looking to provide new, transformative services to pet owners. Perhaps combining this Hard Trend principle with technology that connects pet owners to 24/7 emergency care is an option?

Regulations: Cruise with the Law

Similar to technology as well as because of new technology, laws and regulations are constantly being updated and new ones are put into practice. As digital technology and other innovations advance, it is a Hard Trend future certainty that regulations will change with them.

This is a more adaptive Hard Trend principle that companies can use to prevent disruption before it occurs. A current example of a business that must adapt to or risk failure is the electric scooter company Bird. These and other modes of transportation quickly appeared in big cities, but many lawmakers debated what companies like Bird did not consider, such as where they were left lying around and where they could be ridden.

Bird quickly took note of the changing laws and regulations that could limit their opportunities to expand, and as a result, they implemented a limit on the speed of their scooters, shut the scooter off if it entered restricted areas, and created a photographic method that required customers to upload a picture of it parked properly or risk a fine.

For small businesses and startups interested in this new industry, the Hard Trend of increased regulation may spawn application ideas that give you a map of the city as to where you can take the scooters or an improvement in the software for companies like Bird that help customers properly leave their scooters behind when complete.

The three principles of Hard Trend future certainties can not only help you create exponential disruption, they can keep you and your business or organization ahead of obvious disruptions heading your way! With my Hard Trend Methodology and the many other principles found in my Anticipatory Leader System, the uncertainty of the future becomes much less daunting and actually certain!

I have been asked to put together a program for companies or individual branches to take advantage of the coaching program while helping control costs. After spending some time working through the process with a handful of current clients, I have put together a program I think will help meet the needs of those facing challenges. The program is just a framework and can be adjusted to individual needs. Here are the basics.

• Initial site visit to understand the needs and direction of each individual group. This will be a full day at your location working with those you choose to share the challenges and needs of the program.
• A specific targeted follow-up planning session to get the management clear on the process and direction coaching will take, and the prioritized areas of attention.
• Up to ten weekly coaching accountability sessions of 30 minutes each to work one on one with those selected to develop a business plan, schedule, and to help adjust as needed. (Any unused sessions can be credited toward additional site visits or coaching).
• Monthly team webinar to discuss specific market issues and strategies and conditions change both nationally and locally. Up to 500 users.
• Annual Business Planning Event held at your location so that each producer has a comprehensive plan to generate opportunities and leverage referrals while providing value to both clients and referral partners.
• Access for all employees to the IMTcoaching.com website for all the support tools as well as email/phone connection with Coach Mike for specific questions or challenges up to 10 additional users.
• Discounted additional site visits for other branches or for additional training events.
• Help with prospecting searches and recruiting assistance. Sometimes it is about an opportunity to thrive and grow, more than a sign on bonus or rates. Coach Mike can help with interviews and every new originator will benefit from a 90-day onboarding/business planning program to help hit the ground running.
• Local exclusivity. Yours will be the only company Coach Mike will work with in your market if you are enrolled in the program.
• A minimal six-month commitment is all that is required. This program will renew every six months and your rates will never increase if you keep connected to the program.

Our industry is facing challenging times. Allow me to put my more than 40 years’ experience to work for you! Thousands of originators, managers, and owners have trusted and benefitted from these proven strategies. Now is the time to put them to work for you!

The site visit and six-month weekly accountability coaching sessions are a great value at $4,995 each. The “Access” program has originators across the country paying $59.95 a month to connect. All these services can be brought to you today for just $5,000 per month! A minor investment for a huge upside production potential. This also represents a savings of more than $20,000 every six months on coaching, and almost another $10,000 in site visits. That’s almost 50% off!

For those on a tighter budget or a smaller branch, we can eliminate the site visits and in person business planning events and do those via Zoom calls and reduce the accountability sessions from ten to 5 per week and 10 additional Access users for $3,500 per month. This represents a savings of more than $10,000!

Space is limited so please reach out today to schedule a call with Coach Mike to see if you and your people would benefit from this opportunity. Once my schedule is full this offer will become subject to availability.