The number of homes for sale in Cape Coral, FL and North Port, FL surged roughly 50% from a year earlier in March—more than anywhere else in the country. And in McAllen, TX, supply jumped 25%.
On the west coast of Florida, housing supply is surging, sellers are cutting their asking prices and the time it takes to sell a home is soaring—all at a faster rate than anywhere else in the U.S. The story is similar in parts of Texas. That is according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
Here’s how these trends showed up in U.S. housing-market data for March, which covers 85 major metropolitan areas:
Florida and Texas have been building more homes than anywhere else in the country, partly to accommodate the flood of newcomers that showed up during the pandemic homebuying boom. But the boom is over, in part because many people have been priced out. Now, homes are sitting on the market and price growth is stagnating.
“Out-of-town homebuyers no longer see Florida as a place to get amazing value. Now they’re moving to North Carolina or Tennessee to get a good deal. Many local blue-collar workers have been priced out of homeownership, too,” said Eric Auciello, a local Redfin sales manager. “Two years ago, the North Port metro was one of the most competitive housing markets in the country because it was affordable for remote workers and there was a shortage of homes for sale, but none of those things are true today. Sarasota, in particular, has been overvalued for decades, and the chickens have finally come to roost. The Tampa metro has been faring a bit better.”
Individual home sellers are having a tough time attracting buyers in part because builders are offering concessions that are hard for buyers to refuse. As a result, listings from regular sellers are sitting on the market. But homes are also sitting because many sellers are pricing their properties too high, and then being forced to cut later, Auciello said.
“The sharp ascent in Florida housing prices in recent years has driven a lot of homeowners to cash in on their equity, but some of them are having a hard time adjusting to the fact that it’s a buyer’s market,” Auciello said. “My advice to sellers is to price your home fairly; the comps from six months ago don’t exist now. And if you’re a buyer, know that the odds of getting an offer accepted below market value are pretty high.”
The insurance crisis in Florida is also throwing a wrench into home purchases and in some cases delaying deals. Nearly three-quarters of Florida homeowners say they or the area they live in has been affected by rising home insurance costs or changes in coverage, a recent Redfin survey found.
“One of our agents is representing a buyer who thought he’d be able to get insurance for $2,000 per year—the rate the existing homeowner has. But he found out at the eleventh hour that his insurance will be $4,000 because the house has had water damage. We’re seeing sellers offer a lot of concessions to hold deals together,” said Auciello, whose own home insurance is now $14,000 a year all in, up from around $8,000 two years ago. “We’re at an inflection point. A hefty insurance bill isn’t always a big deal for a luxury buyer, but it can be a really big issue for someone buying a waterfront home on a smaller budget.”
Connie Durnal, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Dallas, said her market has also been sluggish.
“Last year was by far the slowest market I’ve seen in my 20 years as a real estate agent,” Durnal said. “Move-up buyers are almost nonexistent. Even though a lot of homeowners have built up a ton of equity, many don’t want to sell because their monthly payment would double or triple due to high mortgage rates.”
Nationwide, New Listings Slowed in March and Prices Rose From a Year Earlier
New listings dropped 6% month over month in March—the largest decline on a seasonally adjusted basis since January 2022. They rose 6% from a year earlier, but that marks a deceleration from the 14% annual gain in February.
New listings may have slowed because mortgage rates are staying higher longer than expected, which is exacerbating the lock-in effect. The average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate in March was 6.82%—the highest since December—and the Federal Reserve has warned that elevated inflation will probably delay the interest-rate cuts they had been planning this year.
Prices continued to rise, in part because there’s still a shortage of homes for sale. The median U.S. home sale price rose 5% year over year in March to $420,357, just 3% below the record high of $432,496 set in May 2022.
Home sales were roughly flat compared with a month earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis, and were down 3% from a year earlier.
March 2024 Highlights: United States
March 2024 |
Month-Over-Month Change |
Year-Over-Year Change |
|
Median sale price |
$420,357 |
2.1% |
4.8% |
Homes sold, seasonally adjusted |
423,273 |
-0.2% |
-2.6% |
New listings, seasonally adjusted |
509,405 |
-6.3% |
6.1% |
All homes for sale, seasonally adjusted (active listings) |
1,600,310 |
0.6% |
4.3% |
Months of supply |
2.4 |
-0.5 |
0.3 |
Median days on market |
40 |
-8 |
-4 |
Share of for-sale homes with a price drop |
16.3% |
1.1 ppts |
2.8 ppts |
Share of homes sold above final list price |
30.0% |
3.8 ppts |
1.6 ppts |
Average sale-to-final-list-price ratio |
99.2% |
0.5 ppts |
0.4 ppts |
Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
6.82% |
0.04 ppts |
0.28 ppts |
To view the full report, including charts and additional metro-level data, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-tracker-march-2024
-- Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 7.17 percent.
“Mortgage rates continued rising this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Despite rates increasing more than half a percent since the first week of the year, purchase demand remains steady. With rates staying higher for longer, many homebuyers are adjusting, as evidenced by this week’s report that sales of newly built homes saw the biggest increase since December 2022.”
News Facts
The PMMS® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. For more information, view our Frequently Asked Questions.
Freddie Mac’s mission is to make home possible for families across the nation. We promote liquidity, stability, affordability and equity in the housing market throughout all economic cycles. Since 1970, we have helped tens of millions of families buy, rent or keep their home. Learn More: Website
Pending home sales in March climbed 3.4%, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The Northeast, South and West posted monthly gains in transactions while the Midwest recorded a loss. Year-over-year, the Northeast and South registered decreases but the Midwest and West improved.
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – increased to 78.2 in March. Year over year, pending transactions were up 0.1%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.
“March’s Pending Home Sales Index – at 78.2 – marks the best performance in a year, but it still remains in a fairly narrow range over the last 12 months without a measurable breakout,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Meaningful gains will only occur with declining mortgage rates and rising inventory.”
Quarterly U.S. Economic Forecast
NAR forecasts that existing-home sales will rise by 9% in 2024 to 4.46 million (from 4.09 million 2023) and another 13.2% in 2025 to 5.05 million (from 2024). Housing starts are expected to rise by 1.2% in 2024 to 1.43 million (from 1.413 million in 2023) and 4.9% to 1.5 million in 2025 (from 2024).
“Home sales have lingered at 30-year lows, and since 70 million more Americans live in the country now compared to three decades ago, it’s inevitable that sales will rise in coming years,” explained Yun. “Inventory will grow steadily from more home construction, and various life-changing events will require people to trade up, trade down or move to another location.”
NAR expects that median home prices will increase by 1.8% in 2024 to a record of $396,800 (from $389,800 in 2023) and another 1.8% in 2025 to $403,800 (from 2024). NAR forecasts a modest reduction – 0.6% – in the median new home price to $426,100 in 2024 (from $428,600 in 2023), reflecting the building of smaller-sized homes. The association anticipates the median new home price will jump 3.4% to $440,500 in 2025 (from 2024).
“Home prices are expected to rise roughly in line with consumer price inflation and wage growth over the next two years,” added Yun. “Most homeowners are on strong financial footing in current market conditions, with only 2% of sales classified as being distressed.”
NAR expects home sales to steadily improve while home prices continue to hit record highs.
“Job gains, steady mortgage rates and the release of inventory from pent-up home sellers will lead to more sales,” explained Yun. “Given the lingering housing shortage, home prices will march higher, albeit much more slowly than in the past.”
Pending Home Sales Regional Breakdown
The Northeast PHSI increased 2.7% from last month to 65.1, a decline of 0.3% from March 2023. The Midwest index fell 4.3% to 78.1 in March, up 1.3% from one year ago.
The South PHSI improved 7.0% to 95.8 in March, dropping 1.5% from the prior year. The West index rose 6.8% in March to 61.0, up 3.6% from March 2023.
“Home prices rising faster than income growth is not healthy and adds challenges for first-time buyers,” said Yun.
Yun further noted, “Inventory will gradually rise from recent growth in home building. Additionally, many sellers who delayed listing in the past two years will start putting their homes on the market to move to a different home that better fits their new life circumstances – such as changes in family composition, jobs, commuting patterns and retirees wanting to be closer to their grandkids.”
About the National Association of Realtors®
The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.5 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries. The term Realtor® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of Realtors® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.
# # #
*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.
Pending contracts are good early indicators of upcoming sales closings. However, the amount of time between pending contracts and completed sales is not identical for all home sales. Variations in the length of the process from pending contract to closed sale can be caused by issues such as buyer difficulties with obtaining mortgage financing, home inspection problems, or appraisal issues.
The index is based on a sample that covers about 40% of multiple listing service data each month. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.
An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined. By coincidence, the volume of existing-home sales in 2001 fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered normal for the current U.S. population.
NOTE: Existing-Home Sales for April will be released May 22. The next Pending Home Sales Index will be released May 30. All release times are 10 a.m. Eastern. View the NAR Statistical News Release Schedule.
Redfin reports many U.S. homeowners wouldn’t be able to afford to buy their home if they were to purchase it today because home prices have doubled over the last decade, and monthly housing costs are at an all-time high
Nearly two of every five (38%) homeowners don’t believe they could afford to buy their own home if they were purchasing it today, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
This is based on a Redfin-commissioned survey of roughly 3,000 U.S. residents conducted by Qualtrics in February 2024.
Nearly three in five (59%) homeowners who answered this question have lived in their home for at least 10 years, and another 21% have lived in their home for at least five years. That means the majority of respondents have seen housing prices in their neighborhood skyrocket since they purchased their home: The median U.S. home-sale price has doubled in the last 10 years, and has shot up nearly 50% in the last five years alone.
Home prices have soared over the last decade for several reasons. Already-high home prices skyrocketed during the pandemic, when remote work and ultra-low mortgage rates motivated many Americans to move and buy homes. Even before the pandemic buying boom, home prices were increasing due to a prolonged supply shortage, along with a strong labor market and growing population pushing up demand.
Rising mortgage rates are another reason many homeowners couldn’t afford their own home if they were to buy it today. The typical person purchasing today’s median-priced home for about $420,000 has a record-high $2,864 monthly housing payment with a 7.1% mortgage rate, the current 30-year fixed-rate average. If they were to purchase a home for the same price with a 4% mortgage rate, which was common in 2019, their monthly payment would be $2,210, roughly $650 less.
“Rising home prices are a double-edged sword. On the one hand, Americans who already own homes benefit from rising values and they can consider themselves lucky they broke into the housing market while they could still afford it,” said Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa. “On the other hand, price appreciation makes the prospect of buying a new home daunting or even impossible for many people who want to move. Prices have risen enough that a similar home and location would be much pricier than a home someone already owns–even accounting for inflation. Add elevated mortgage rates to the equation, and moving up to a bigger, better home is even more costly and perhaps out of reach.”
The situation is especially dire for first-time buyers, who haven’t built up equity from the sale of a previous home. Nearly 40% of U.S. renters don’t believe they’ll ever own a home, up from 27% last year. Of the Gen Zers and millennials who do expect to buy their first home soon, more than one-third (36%) expect to use a cash gift from family to help with their down payment.
Baby boomers least likely to be able to afford to buy their own home today
Broken down by generation, baby boomers are least likely to be able to afford their current home if they were to buy it today. Nearly half (45%) of baby boomers said they couldn’t afford a similar home in their neighborhood now, compared to 39% of Gen Xers and 24% of Gen Zers and millennials. That stands to reason, as baby boomers are more likely to have bought their home a long time ago for a much lower price. That dynamic contributes to the shortage of homes for sale: Empty-nest baby boomers own twice as many large homes nationwide as millennials with kids, largely because older Americans, with no financial incentive to sell, are hanging onto their homes.
Unsurprisingly, lower-income homeowners are least likely to be able to afford their own home today. More than half (51%) of respondents earning under $50,000 annually wouldn’t be able to afford their home, compared to 34% of people earning $50,000-$100,000 and 21% of people earning more than $100,000.
To view the full report, including a chart and more details on methodology, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/survey-homeowners-afford-own-home
A lack of housing supply is a serious issue in the U.S. It has put upward pressure on home prices and made buying prohibitively expensive for many.
That said, new housing units are being constructed. We have a long way to go before the nation’s housing shortage is fully addressed, but it’s worth recognizing the progress. To find out where these new homes are being built, we analyzed the latest housing data and found that recently built houses aren’t particularly common in the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan areas. Here's what else we found.
You can check out our full report here: https://www.lendingtree.com/home/mortgage/new-housing-units-study/
LendingTree's Senior Economist and report author, Jacob Channel, had this to say:
"Ultimately, home prices in the United States are unlikely to become truly affordable until more new homes are built. The more housing supply there is, the less upward pressure there’s likely to be on prices and the more affordable buying a home will be. Unfortunately, as LendingTree’s study shows, most areas aren’t building particularly large amounts of new housing and we have a long way to go before we’ve introduced enough supply to bring prices down."
The buzzwords of today’s digital age are ‘AI’ and ‘Artificial Intelligence.’
These excite some and strike fear into others. Yet whatever your position, this Hard Trend is undeniable and will shape the future of your business or organization in some way.
Applications like ChatGPT, deep data algorithms, and others are changing the face of work and how we approach business practices at an unprecedented speed. So what does that mean for the roles we have at work? Better yet, how do employers acquire talent with the skills necessary to keep operations progressing into the future? And finally, how do employees adapt when many of the tasks they are used to completing are being transformed by AI?
Organizations and employees alike find comfort in their tried-and-true operations, but the business world is never constant — change is the only constant. According to a recent report completed by Goldman Sachs, 60% of the jobs available today did not exist in the 1940s. With the accelerated rate at which AI is transforming our current roles, today’s positions will be exponentially different in the next 5, 10, 15, and 20 years.
We do not have the luxury of sitting back and becoming complacent in our current roles, no matter what level they are at. Instead, we need to take an Anticipatory approach to work, looking at the future of AI technology in the workplace and proactively arming our workforce with essential knowledge and skills.
Because AI is progressing at such an exponential rate and will continue to do so, many organizations are still finding it difficult to obtain and retain top talent. Likewise, workers are finding it difficult to assimilate to their new roles in a technology-driven workforce.
Adaptation to AI is certainly on everyone’s minds; however, there is a slight problem with the concept of adaptation. It is a complacent and reactive approach to this digital disruption and will continue to be. Essentially, using agility to face AI will continue to put you in a place of professional anxiety.
With the uptick in AI applications, many companies have allowed AI to come to them. As a result, they wind up disrupted and feel that AI is at fault. Let me be frank: AI applications are not sentient beings. They merely exist and can or cannot be put into action.
It is up to you to apply AI within your business or organization. But applying AI is only half the battle. There is the human factor of the equation, in which your employees are affected by those AI applications. What ends up happening is business leaders either replace employees with those who have the technical skills necessary to work with AI or they force their current employees to learn these skills at unrealistic speeds.
But in reality, no matter the option you select, you are already behind at this point.
Implementing AI applications in Anticipatory ways is definitely part of the equation, but as a leader, you are dealing with humans at your organization. Humans need to be taught how to work with these AI applications.
Teaching the essential skills at the heart of AI encompasses more than just technical know-how of coding languages, data sets, and machine learning principles. These are valuable skills, but employers need to teach how to leverage the higher levels of cognitive domain that human beings bring to the table.
In 1954, psychologist Benjamin Bloom developed a framework for categorizing educational goals: Bloom’s Taxonomy of Educational Objectives. The categories are:
■ Knowledge
■ Comprehension
■ Application
■ Analysis
■ Synthesis
■ Evaluation
Knowledge and comprehension are the lower levels, while application, analysis, synthesis, and evaluation are higher. By creating a space for employees to foster these higher levels, you not only encourage them to develop confidence in their use of these new skills, but employees will also have the advantage of examining data and filtering the most crucial information in a way that AI cannot.
Creative problem-solving, decision-making, and the ability to communicate effectively are key skills that AI cannot touch. A mastery of these skills gives you, your team, and your business or organization the competitive advantage in your industry!
As you can see, an Anticipatory approach to AI in your industry and others is not just about working AI into your system. Human employees will always be a valuable asset to any business or organization, but much like AI applications, they too need to evolve and “upgrade.”
Combine these high-level skills with modernized knowledge in your training, make it interactive, and give current employees downtime to explore and learn these competencies fully. Meshing teaching critical-thinking skills with learning new technology is the way of the future.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of AI and accelerated digital transformation while retaining high-value employees, join my Anticipatory Leader Membership. Right now, you have a choice to make. You can react to problems and disruptions to your life, your career, and your organization after they happen, or you can tap into this unique learning system that will empower you with the ability to accurately foresee disruptions and game-changing opportunities. Learn more: https://www.burrus.com/become-anticipatory.
Luxury sales are outperforming partly because elevated mortgage rates aren’t a deterrent for many luxury buyers, as a record 47% of luxury homes were bought in cash at the start of 2024
The median-priced U.S. luxury home sold for a record $1,225,000 in the first quarter, up 8.7% from a year earlier, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Prices of non-luxury homes rose at roughly half the pace; they were up 4.6% to a median of $345,000, also a record high.
Redfin defines luxury homes as those estimated to be in the top 5% of their respective metro area based on market value, and non-luxury homes as those estimated to be in the 35th-65th percentile based on market value.
Luxury prices are rising largely because demand for high-end homes has held up better than demand for middle-of-the-road homes. Sales of luxury homes are on the upswing, partly because many high-end buyers are undeterred by high mortgage rates, with the share of luxury homes bought in cash sitting at record highs. New listings of luxury homes are soaring—but not enough to curb the price growth that comes with rising demand; the total supply of luxury homes is still far below pre-pandemic levels.
“People with the means to buy high-end homes are jumping in now because they feel confident prices will continue to rise,” said David Palmer, a Redfin Premier agent in the Seattle metro, where the median-priced luxury home sells for $2.7 million. “They’re ready to buy with more optimism and less apprehension. It’s a similar sentiment on the selling side: Prices continue to increase for high-end homes, so homeowners feel it’s a good time to cash in on their equity. Even though mortgage rates remain elevated and demand isn’t as high as it was during the pandemic, many homebuyers and sellers feel the worst of the housing downturn is behind us.”
Luxury home sales rise for first time since 2021 as record share of affluent buyers pay cash
Sales of luxury homes rose 2.1% year over year in the first quarter. Luxury sales started posting year-over-year increases in January for the first time since August 2021.
Sales of non-luxury homes decreased 4.2% year over year. Non-luxury sales haven’t posted an increase since the end of 2021.
Sales are growing for luxury homes and declining for non-luxury homes largely because so many affluent buyers are able to pay in cash, meaning today’s elevated mortgage rates don’t deter them from purchasing homes. Nearly half (46.8%) of luxury homes bought during the three months ending February 29 were purchased in cash. That’s the highest share in at least a decade and up from 44.1% a year earlier.
The weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has hovered between 6.6% and 7% since the beginning of 2024, more than double pandemic-era record lows. Elevated mortgage rates have driven down demand for the average American homebuyer, but rates are irrelevant to cash buyers.
Supply of luxury homes for sale posts biggest year-over-year increase on record
The total number of luxury homes for sale rose 12.6% from a year earlier in the first quarter, the biggest increase on record. That’s compared with a 2.9% decline in non-luxury inventory.
New listings of luxury homes soared 18.5% from a year earlier in the first quarter, the second consecutive quarter of double-digit increases. That’s roughly seven times bigger than the 2.7% increase for non-luxury homes.
Supply of luxury homes is shooting up for several reasons. One, the mortgage-rate lock-in effect has a lesser impact on luxury homeowners because they’re more apt to buy their next home in cash or be in a financial position to take on a higher rate. Two, owners of luxury homes, many of whom have a lot of equity, are putting their houses on the market to cash in while prices are at record highs. Three, luxury supply had a lot of room to grow, as it was sitting at low levels during the first quarter of 2023.
It’s worth noting that while luxury inventory is on the rise, total supply and new listings are below typical pre-pandemic first-quarter levels. Relatively low inventory is one reason luxury prices are increasing.
Metro-Level Luxury Highlights: Q1 2024
Redfin’s metro-level luxury data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Some metros are removed from time to time, to ensure data accuracy. All changes noted below are year-over-year changes.
10 Most Expensive U.S. Home Sales: Q1 2024
To view the full report, including charts and a full metro-level breakdown, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/q1-2024-luxury-report/
We all know that you can’t fight the FED, but when the FED doesn’t do what people want them to do, the markets are the ones that respond! We spoke a couple of weeks ago about wishing certain people would just keep their mouths shut until AFTER certain actions do or don’t happen. However, we got to see what happens when people get too far out in front of a story, or just downright say things that aren’t true. Here are a few issues that were front and center.
• The FED didn’t cut rates.
• Inflation isn’t going lower.
• Most of the jobs created were part-time jobs.
• The actual number of full-time workers has gone down.
• Mortgage rates didn’t go to 5% in March.
• Home prices continue to rise.
• What happens when CPI/PPI show stress and your leadership says “Don’t” and they DO?
• The NAR agreement has yet to be signed off on by a judge.
• While some of the mortgage agencies have made their voice heard on what happens when sellers pay buyer’s agents, there are still some that have yet to weigh in.
• Let’s not even get started with 50 states having to approve disclosures, listing agreements, and buyer agency contract language, and get it done by July!
That said, people are still buying houses and taking mortgage loans to do it. Mortgage rates are still lower than historical averages and in some parts of the country we are seeing the return of multiple offers and offers well over list price to secure the deal. It’s important to stay on top of the FACTS of the matter and be prepared to execute your success strategies because it's helping people navigate the process that gets you paid!
Questions or comments: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Daily average mortgage rates jumped to their highest level since last November after last week’s disappointing inflation report
The median U.S. home-sale price increased 5% from a year earlier during the four weeks ending April 14, bringing it to $380,250—just $3,095 shy of June 2022’s all-time high. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
The average daily mortgage rate this week surpassed 7.4%, the highest level since last November, after a hotter-than-expected inflation report and the Fed’s confirmation that interest-rate cuts will be delayed. The combination of high mortgage rates and prices have brought homebuyers’ median monthly housing payment to a record $2,775, up 11% year over year.
There are signals that buyers are out there touring homes despite rising rates. Mortgage-purchase applications are up 5% week over week, and Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index—a measure of requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents—is near its highest level in seven months. Chen Zhao, Redfin's economic research lead, said some house hunters are hoping to buy now because they're concerned rates could rise more, and others have grown accustomed to elevated rates and pushed down their home-price budget accordingly.
“Home sales are slower than usual, but there are still people buying and selling because if not now, when?” said Connie Durnal, a Redfin Premier agent in Dallas. “I’ve had a few prospective buyers touring homes for the last several years, since mortgage rates started going up, and they wish they would have bought last year because prices and rates are even higher now. My advice to them: If you can afford to and you find a house you love, buy now. There’s no guarantee that rates will come down soon.”
For more of Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, including how current financial events are impacting mortgage rates, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Leading indicators
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity |
||||
Value (if |
Recent change |
Year-over-year |
Source |
|
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
7.41% (April 17) |
Up from 7% one month earlier; highest level since November 2023 |
Up from 6.61% |
Mortgage News Daily |
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
6.88% (week ending April 11) |
Up just slightly from 6.82% a week earlier |
Up from 6.27% |
Freddie Mac |
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) |
Increased 5% from a week earlier (as of week ending April 12) |
Down 10% |
Mortgage Bankers Association |
|
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) |
Up 8% from a month earlier (as of week ending April 14) |
Down 11% |
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents |
|
Touring activity |
Up 33% from the start of the year (as of April 14) |
At this time last year, it was up 23% from the start of 2023 |
ShowingTime, a home touring technology company |
|
Google searches for “home for sale” |
Unchanged from a month earlier (as of April 14) |
Down 17% |
Google Trends |
Key housing-market data
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending April 14, 2024 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. |
|||
Four weeks ending |
Year-over-year |
Notes |
|
Median sale price |
$380,250 |
4.7% |
|
Median asking price |
$413,225 |
6.4% |
Biggest increase since Oct. 2022; all-time high |
Median monthly mortgage payment |
$2,775 at a 6.88% mortgage rate |
10.6% |
All-time high |
Pending sales |
86,086 |
-2.3% |
|
New listings |
93,332 |
10.8% |
|
Active listings |
832,748 |
9.6% |
|
Months of supply |
3.3 months |
+0.4 pts. |
4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions. |
Share of homes off market in two weeks |
42.6% |
Down from 44% |
|
Median days on market |
35 |
-1 day |
|
Share of homes sold above list price |
29.2% |
Essentially unchanged |
|
Share of homes with a price drop |
5.9% |
+1.6 pts. |
|
Average sale-to-list price ratio |
99.2% |
+0.2 pts. |
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending April 14, 2024 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. |
|||
Metros with biggest |
Metros with biggest |
Notes |
|
Median sale price |
Anaheim, CA (24.8%) Providence, RI (14.6%) Nassau County, NY (14.3%) West Palm Beach, FL (13.5%) New Brunswick, NJ (13.1%) |
San Antonio, TX (-1%) |
Declined in just 1 metro |
Pending sales |
San Jose, CA (25.6%) San Francisco (11.2%) Oakland, CA (7.1%) Columbus, OH (6.7%) Seattle (6.4%) |
Nassau County, NY (-14.9%) Atlanta (-13.6%) Houston (-11.6%) Riverside, CA (-10.8%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (-10%) |
Increased in 14 metros |
New listings |
San Jose, CA (46.6%) Sacramento, CA (27.6%) Phoenix (27.4%) Jacksonville, FL (27.2%) Dallas (22.9%) |
Newark, NJ (-12.4%) Providence, RI (-6.3%) Milwaukee (-4.6%) Chicago (-4.5%) Detroit (-3.1%) |
Declined in 9 metros |
To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-home-prices-mortgage-rates-increase
Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 7.10 percent.
“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage surpassed 7 percent for the first time this year, jumping from 6.88 percent to 7.10 percent this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “As rates trend higher, potential homebuyers are deciding whether to buy before rates rise even more or hold off in hopes of decreases later in the year. Last week, purchase applications rose modestly, but it remains unclear how many homebuyers can withstand increasing rates in the future.”
News Facts
The PMMS® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. For more information, view our Frequently Asked Questions.
Freddie Mac’s mission is to make home possible for families across the nation. We promote liquidity, stability, affordability and equity in the housing market throughout all economic cycles. Since 1970, we have helped tens of millions of families buy, rent or keep their home. Learn More: Website
Existing-home sales slipped in March, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales slid in the Midwest, South and West, but rose in the Northeast for the first time since November 2023. Year-over-year, sales decreased in all regions.
Total existing-home sales[i] – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – receded 4.3% from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million in March. Year-over-year, sales waned 3.7% (down from 4.35 million in March 2023).
“Though rebounding from cyclical lows, home sales are stuck because interest rates have not made any major moves,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “There are nearly six million more jobs now compared to pre-COVID highs, which suggests more aspiring home buyers exist in the market.”
Total housing inventory[ii] registered at the end of March was 1.11 million units, up 4.7% from February and 14.4% from one year ago (970,000). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.2-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 2.9 months in February and 2.7 months in March 2023.
“More inventory is always welcomed in the current environment,” Yun added. “Frankly, it’s a great time to list with ongoing multiple offers on mid-priced properties and, overall, home prices continuing to rise.”
The median existing-home price[iii] for all housing types in March was $393,500, an increase of 4.8% from the previous year ($375,300). All four U.S. regions registered price gains.
REALTORS® Confidence Index
According to the monthly REALTORS® Confidence Index, properties typically remained on the market for 33 days in March, down from 38 days in February but up from 29 days in March 2023.
First-time buyers were responsible for 32% of sales in March, up from 26% in February and 28% in March 2023. NAR’s 2023 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers – released in November 2023[iv] – found that the annual share of first-time buyers was 32%.
All-cash sales accounted for 28% of transactions in March, down from 33% in February but up from 27% one year ago.
Individual investors or second-home buyers, who make up many cash sales, purchased 15% of homes in March, down from 21% in February and 17% in March 2023.
Distressed sales[v] – foreclosures and short sales – represented 2% of sales in March, virtually unchanged from last month and the prior year.
Mortgage Rates
According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.88% as of April 11. That’s up from 6.82% the previous week and 6.27% one year ago.
Single-family and Condo/Co-op Sales
Single-family home sales declined to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.8 million in March, down 4.3% from 3.97 million in February and 2.8% from the prior year. The median existing single-family home price was $397,200 in March, up 4.7% from March 2023.
At a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 390,000 units in March, existing condominium and co-op sales decreased 4.9% from last month and 11.4% from one year ago (440,000 units). The median existing condo price was $357,400 in March, up 5.8% from the previous year ($337,900).
Regional Breakdown
Existing-home sales in the Northeast climbed 4.2% from February to an annual rate of 500,000 in March, ending a four-month streak where sales in the Northeast registered 480,000 units. Compared to March 2023, home sales were down 3.8%. The median price in the Northeast was $434,600, up 9.9% from one year ago.
In the Midwest, existing-home sales retracted 1.9% from one month ago to an annual rate of 1.01 million in March, down 1.0% from the prior year. The median price in the Midwest was $292,400, up 7.5% from March 2023.
Existing-home sales in the South faded 5.9% from February to an annual rate of 1.9 million in March, down 5.0% from one year before. The median price in the South was $359,100, up 3.4% from last year.
In the West, existing-home sales slumped 8.2% from a month ago to an annual rate of 780,000 in March, a decline of 3.7% from the previous year. The median price in the West was $603,000, up 6.7% from March 2023.
[i] Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings from Multiple Listing Services. Changes in sales trends outside of MLSs are not captured in the monthly series. NAR benchmarks home sales periodically using other sources to assess overall home sales trends, including sales not reported by MLSs.
Existing-home sales, based on closings, differ from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which account for more than 90% of total home sales, are based on a much larger data sample – about 40% of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.
The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.
Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.
[ii] Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982 (prior to 1999, single-family sales accounted for more than 90% of transactions and condos were measured only on a quarterly basis).
[iii] The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical of market conditions than average prices, which are skewed higher by a relatively small share of upper-end transactions. The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if additional data is received.
The national median condo/co-op price often is higher than the median single-family home price because condos are concentrated in higher-cost housing markets. However, in a given area, single-family homes typically sell for more than condos as seen in NAR’s quarterly metro area price reports.
[iv] Survey results represent owner-occupants and differ from separately reported monthly findings from NAR’s REALTORS® Confidence Index, which include all types of buyers. The annual study only represents primary residence purchases, and does not include investor and vacation home buyers. Results include both new and existing homes.
[v] Distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales), days on market, first-time buyers, all-cash transactions and investors are from a monthly survey for the NAR’s REALTORS® Confidence Index, posted at nar.realtor.
Many members of Generation X — born between 1965 and 1980 — are well into their middle age. While most Gen Xers aren’t house hunting, they make up a notable chunk of homebuyers in today’s expensive housing market.
To highlight where Gen Xers are looking to buy, we analyzed mortgage offers given to users of our online shopping platform across the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan areas in 2023. Here's what we found.
You can check out our full report here: https://www.lendingtree.com/home/mortgage/most-popular-metros-gen-x-homebuyers/
LendingTree's Senior Economist and report author, Jacob Channel, had this to say:
"Members of Generation X are by no means the largest group of homebuyers in today’s housing market, but they nonetheless make a sizable impact. Owing to the fact that many are in their peak earning years, homebuying can be attainable for some Gen Xers, even in today’s expensive housing market. Of course, not all Gen Xers are wealthy and like members of any generation, dealing with relatively high mortgage rates and home prices can be challenging."
Nationwide, one-third of homeowners who lost insurance have moved or plan to move, but nearly the same share are staying in their home with little or no coverage
Nearly three-quarters (70.3%) of Florida homeowners and over half (51%) of California homeowners say they or the area they live in has been affected by rising home insurance costs or changes in coverage (e.g., their insurer dropped them) in the past year. That compares with less than half (44.6%) of homeowners nationwide, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
This report is based on a Redfin-commissioned survey by Qualtrics in February 2024. The nationally representative survey was fielded to 2,995 U.S. homeowners and renters.
Insurance is top of mind for homeowners in Florida and California because those states are the epicenters of the insurance housing crisis. Many homeowners have seen their premiums skyrocket, and some have lost coverage altogether because intensifying natural disaster risk has prompted many insurers to stop doing business in Florida and California. Seven of California’s biggest property insurers have recently opted to limit new policies in the Golden State amid increasing wildfire risk. And in the Sunshine State, 11 insurers have liquidated amid growing flood and storm risk.
Mounting insurance costs and natural disasters are prompting some people to relocate. In Florida, 11.9% of survey respondents who plan to move in the next year cited rising insurance costs as a reason—roughly twice the national share of 6.2%. And in California, 13.1% of people who intend to relocate in the coming year cited concern for natural disasters or climate risks as a reason, compared with 8.8% of respondents nationwide. But while some people are leaving disaster-prone areas, there are still more people moving in than out, a separate Redfin analysis found.
“Homeowners living in areas where insurance premiums are surging are at risk of seeing their properties gain less value than homeowners in areas with stable premiums—and in some cases, they may even lose money,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “Homes with low disaster risk and low insurance costs will likely become increasingly popular, and thus more valuable, as the dangers of climate change intensify.”
Condo prices in some parts of Florida have already started to fall amid an increase in insurance costs and HOA fees.
12% of Florida Homeowners Who Have Faced Insurance Changes Were Dropped By Their Insurer
This section focuses on the 1,198 U.S. homeowner respondents who said they or their area has or may have been impacted by rising home insurance costs or changes in coverage in the past year. Redfin asked these homeowners specifically which insurance insurance-related changes they’ve seen and are concerned about.
Roughly one in eight Florida respondents (12%) and one in nine California respondents (10.7%) said their insurance company stopped offering coverage for their home, compared with 8.3% of respondents overall.
Other homeowners are worried they will be dropped by their insurer in the future: Over one-quarter (27.7%) of respondents in Florida said they are or have been concerned their insurer may stop offering coverage for their home, compared with 13.5% of respondents in California and 8.9% of respondents as a whole.
Most respondents have seen a rise in insurance costs: Overall, nearly three-quarters (71.7%) said their policy premium increased, with a slightly higher share in Florida (76%) and a slightly lower share in California (62.9%).
The average annual U.S. home insurance rate is expected to rise 6% this year to $2,522 after surging 19.8% between 2021 and 2023, according to Insurify. In Florida, the average annual rate is $10,996—higher than any other state.
1 in 3 Homeowners Who Lost Insurance Coverage Has Moved or Plans To Move
Roughly 100 homeowners who participated in the survey indicated that their insurance company stopped offering coverage for their home. One-third (33.2%) of those respondents moved or plans to move to a new area where coverage is available. But nearly the same share (30%) are staying in their home with little or no coverage.
Almost half (46%) of respondents who lost insurance coverage said they’ve found a new insurer to cover their home. A similar share (44.5%) said they pay a significantly higher premium for coverage than before.
Oftentimes when homeowners lose insurance coverage through a private insurer, they’re forced to buy into a more expensive state-created plan—such as California’s FAIR Plan or Florida’s Citizens Property Insurance Corp. But in many cases, it’s unclear whether those programs have enough money to cover losses; a Bloomberg analysis found that 36 states have residual insurance plans, but 21 of those don’t explicitly spell out how they’d pay deficits that exceed their assets.
Only One-Third of Homeowners Know Which Natural Disasters Their Insurance Covers
Roughly one-third of U.S. homeowners (34%) know which natural disasters their insurance for their home covers. An even smaller share—27.2%—know which natural disasters their insurance covers and how much damage is covered under their policy.
With climate disasters on the rise, homeowners should revisit their existing insurance policies so they know exactly what and how much is covered, Fairweather said. In some cases, they may want to purchase an additional policy covering a specific disaster, like fire or flood.
Over One-Third of Real Estate Agents Have Seen an Increase in Insurance-Related Issues
More than one-third of real estate agents (34.4%) have experienced an increase in issues related to home insurance during transactions over the past year.
This is according to a separate Redfin-commissioned survey of 500 real estate agents from a wide spectrum of U.S. brokerages, conducted by Qualtrics in December 2023.
The share was significantly higher in Florida and California. In Florida, nearly three-quarters (73%) of agents have seen an uptick in insurance issues in the last year, and in California, the share was 64%.
To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/home-insurance-survey-report-2024
Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) Multifamily today announced a series of policy and process enhancements that further strengthen underwriting due diligence, bolster fraud detection and deterrence, and mitigate other risks. Effective April 18, the changes include enhanced property inspection requirements and additional due diligence, among other measures.
"Freddie Mac remains focused on risk management and works to enhance our processes to better detect and deter fraud and misrepresentation,” said Ian Ouwerkerk, senior vice president of Multifamily Underwriting & Credit. “We take these issues seriously, and these enhancements are just the latest step in our effort to manage risk and improve our execution."
The enhancements will appear in Freddie Mac’s Multifamily Seller/Servicer Guide (“Guide”) and take effect on April 18. They specifically include the following:
The April updates reflect another step in Freddie Mac’s ongoing effort to enhance its processes. In November 2023, the company announced new measures to clarify multifamily documentation chain of custody requirements as loan due diligence moves from borrower to lender.
Freddie Mac Multifamily is the nation's multifamily housing finance leader. Historically, more than 90% of the eligible rental units we fund are affordable to families with low-to-moderate incomes earning up to 120% of area median income. Freddie Mac securitizes about 90% of the multifamily loans it purchases, thus transferring the majority of the expected credit risk from taxpayers to private investors.
Freddie Mac’s mission is to make home possible for families across the nation. We promote liquidity, stability, affordability and equity in the housing market throughout all economic cycles. Since 1970, we have helped tens of millions of families buy, rent or keep their home. Learn More:
Website
From buying and selling advice for consumers to money-making tips for Agents, our content, updated daily, has made Realty Times® a must-read, and see, for anyone involved in Real Estate.