All-pro quarterback Tom Brady has retired from the National Football League after 22 years of leading the New England Patriots and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Super Bowl victories. He led those two teams to seven Super Bowl championships while earning five (MVP) Most Valuable Player awards. Most likely both records will stand for a long time, perhaps forever! Records, they say, are there to be broken and perhaps Brady’s will.
There is one NFL record that the TunneySide guarantees will always stand. That is the one head coach Don Shula formerly of the Baltimore Colts and Miami Dolphins achieved. Shula had 347 victories in his 31-year career. It seems impossible for any head coach to last that long in the NFL today or in the future.
Brady vacillated, perhaps with some sleepless nights, in making his final decision. Almost every NFL player, coach, and or game official has that tough decision to make. I know I did after 31 NFL seasons. The opportunity to be on the field with some of the finest athletes in the world is something beyond special that one wants to maintain. So many players I have known have that difficulty in deciding when to retire and, in fact, may move to another team to continue playing.
Joe Namath of the New York Jets moved on the Los Angeles Rams. Johnny Unitas, after an illustrious career with the Baltimore Colts, was traded to the San Diego Chargers. Joe Montana, Ronnie Lott, Jerry Rice, and many, many more – all Hall of Famers – could have just retired but wanted to remain in the NFL. Will Tom Brady follow in those footsteps? It doesn’t seem he likely will. Other players have been recruited by television to serve as game analyses to explain the game to the viewers. Brady may well be interested in that. However, in today’s NFL salary cap the enormous amount of money that players and coaches can retain is enough to sustain a financial lifestyle. Stay tuned.
One more note about the title G.O.A.T. The TunneySide does not accept that title in a T*E*A*M sport. No QB or running back can achieve that level of success without a strong protective offensive line of seven blockers/protective linemen. If you want to use that G.O.A.T. term for competitive swimmer Michael Phelps or gymnast Simone Biles, then we can accept that.
Will you log in with your thought about the G.O.A.T. theory?
In August I spoke to a huge audience. It was so fun!
Viewing the footage afterward, I was quite disappointed in how I looked, even as I had been very committed to looking the part and feeling good… and so I – you guessed it – made a NEW Promise.
Since August, half a year now, I have lost a great deal of fat, gained muscle, feel and look quite different to those who haven’t seen me in a while.
Making new promises such as waking up earlier (between 4-5 AM), hitting the gym every single day, eating a certain way, sleeping more by going to bed earlier, drinking tons of water – all of the good things we are supposed to do I am doing quite religiously. And it’s working. It is the ultimate Health Promise for myself.
And yet, even in the success we can find ourselves needing to shake things up once in a while.
Today was one of those days for me. Sun shining, snow on the ground, something of a rare open Saturday on the family schedule, I went for a new kind of workout: A HIKE up to the mountains! (actually, my favorite thing)
I shared some thoughts about Changing It Up on the video included here, even when that which we are committed to is working, that we need to Promise ourselves that during the best of times, systems and processes, it is important for our own clarity and joy to change things up within that which works.
This video is of my thoughts regarding that, and don’t mind the heavy breathing as I hike.
I call it: How to BE Healthier! Grammatical fun.
I didn’t realize I would be going for 5 miles, as I intended only to go a mile up and a mile back. Instead, I was pleasantly surprised, after filming the video, that my body wanted to just keep going. To the TOP of the mountain! What a view. It was unexpected and wonderful.
5 miles and nearly 1,000 cals burned later, mud mixed with snowy shoes, a face in the sun and a heart full of joy, I returned to my car exhilarated by the choice to change things up this day.
I Promise to do more of that. The Promise to change it up for the good, better, or best. It all counts, it all matters, and you can join me today!
How are you going to change it up to keep the excitement of your promises this week?
In this new year, there are great transformations taking place in many industries. With all of this transformation, innovative business opportunities are ripe for the picking, and those with an Anticipatory mindset are sure to benefit from them in some of the most exponential ways.
Five Industries That Boast Exponential Opportunity in 2022
This is just a starting point. Your ability to use my Hard Trend Methodology to think more critically about these industries and then use those future certainties to become a positive disruptor is an integral piece to the puzzle.
1. Sustainability and Shipping
The sustainability and green movement is a disruptive Hard Trend in and of itself, and it provides much opportunity for an Anticipatory entrepreneur or business leader in many different ways, especially when applying technology.
For example, Amazon and other online retailers have already started successful drone delivery systems in certain parts of the world, and this is a growing Hard Trend that will only accelerate. Keep in mind as you look at this opportunity, and the others I share in the article, another principle I teach in my Anticipatory Organization Model: the Both/And Principle. When applied to the accelerating growth of drone delivery, you can see that the future is “both” drone delivery “and” many other delivery types as well.
2. At-Home Fitness
There are many social benefits of going to work out with a trainer or simply around other individuals and this will grow; however, for many, home-based workouts are more appealing these days. Using Hard Trends, you can anticipate new opportunities.
An anticipatory entrepreneur might consider a business that leases at-home gym equipment, much like leasing a water softener or rent-to-own type appliances. Perhaps you set up an app and a system that allows customers to select what equipment they want and the length of the lease, and maybe this lease covers repairs for moving parts or allows you to upgrade weight as you grow in your lifting abilities. For additional revenue you could offer a health bot trainer and wellness coach that can be fully personalized by the user.
3. Travel Planning
As apps and the internet have brought us more and more ways to plan our own vacations effortlessly, the use of traditional travel agencies has been diminishing rapidly. Many did not embrace an Anticipatory mindset and instead treaded water in the shallow end, hoping that they would still have crumbs to nibble on after everything. Enter: The coronavirus pandemic, leveling all travel with restrictions and closures.
Now, everyone involved in the travel planning industry has a fresh start to leverage technology and the Hard Trend of tourist travel, which has already started to ramp up yet again. Let’s think a bit more exponentially about this for a second: People have many ways to plan a trip, but what about a personalized A.I. travel agent customized by the user that suggests other things for you to do based on your interests?
4. Remote Working
A trend that many wished would end is proving to be the exact opposite — a future certainty that isn’t going away anytime soon. Global lockdowns forced so many industries with employees who never before imagined working from home to turn their kitchen corners into a cubicle. For better or worse, office workers and teachers alike have developed virtual working systems that can be utilized at will, but will this trend expand to other workers, or will it shrink?
With the ever-accelerating spectrum of digital change happening long before the pandemic, it is safe to say that in the near future, a disruptive Anticipatory Entrepreneur might look at machine operators and other once heavily hands-on jobs in manufacturing and find a way to do them remotely. For instance, couple A.I., 5G, augmented reality and advanced mobile robots with the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT), and suddenly you’re seeing an opportunity for work to feel quite like a video game.
5. Cybersecurity
With so many connected devices and new ways to integrate AI machine learning, the Internet of Things (IoT) and edge computing, including smart machines, into our everyday lives, cybersecurity is becoming one of the most important topics in our world. Each new, transformative technology that connects us to information faster and each other more efficiently is a haven for hackers and cyber criminals to run rampant in.
Since the dawn of the internet, we have had antivirus software that is meant to thwart these potential attacks. However, cyber criminals are becoming smarter, and already, software upgrades will not be able to keep up. Cybersecurity is often left to the IT department of major corporations, but as an entrepreneur looking to break into the field with your own business, how can you think exponentially about where the industry is heading?
Learn to Look Ahead as an Anticipatory Leader
These aforementioned industries and opportunities are growing; however, keep this in mind: We’re already in 2022. And if you have learned anything from my Anticipatory Leader System, you likely know that an Anticipatory Leader is already looking ahead to 2023 and beyond using both Hard Trends and Soft Trends to identify game-changing opportunities!
"It's impossible said pride. It's risky said experience. It's pointless said reason. Give it a try said the heart." Unknown
Victor and Vera Vossen leaned into each other as they sat together on the swing on their front porch. It was a rare moment to relax and enjoy watching the sunset from their farmhouse in the country. The Vossens admittedly were city folks. But their dream of being self-sustaining and making a profit living on their rural homestead took shape shortly after the pandemic.
Victor's employer allowed him to start working from home. Vera was already running her business from home, even when they lived in the big city.
As they sat on the porch swing, Victor and Vera reflected on the lessons learned when they left the city for life in the country. Within the first month of living in the rural farmhouse, their dream seemed to be turning into a nightmare. The Vossens were unprepared to continually evict the family of mice who kept munching on food in the pantry and other valuable items the mice chewed to shreds. They did not realize how many Do-It-Yourself skills they would need to learn when Murphy's Law moved in. They didn't want to move back to the city and admit to their friends that they had failed.
The Vossen family didn't fail. Today Victor and Vera sipped their tea on the porch swing and reveled in the satisfaction that they conquered many trials and mistakes. They were living their dream of fresh air and living well in the country.
Here are some of the areas of research and preparation the Vossens did before selling their condo in town and moving to the woods:
Victor and Vera used a team of professionals who were knowledgeable about rural properties. They asked about a water source, land that would perk for septic purposes. They wanted some woods and space for gardening. Vera wanted a protected area for her egg-laying chickens. Other considerations were the distance to work (when Victor had to drive to a job occasionally,) schools, grocery, church, and other services they would need.
The realtor was familiar with values and classification, zoning, covenants, and restrictions . The Vossens wanted to know what commercial enterprises they could operate on some of the acreage to help them pay for their home.
The Vossens chose a lender who knew how to structure the financing on a rural property. Then, they chose a home inspector, and well and septic inspector too.
They used a surveyor because they had to survey several acres and separate the few acres around the house from the rest of the acreage to meet the lender guidelines. The Vossens hired a home repair contractor for to make some changes to the house.
Victor and Vera had been researching rural living for a couple of years before moving out of the city. Mother Earth News Almanac and the Farmer's Almanac were stacked around their home and a few Foxfire books too. Even though the Vossens were living within a 30- minute drive to the city, they still wanted to learn how to be independent of modern gadgets and conveniences as much as possible. Vera watched the movie Big Little Farm, which inspired her to help her through the obstacles.
They celebrated each time they learned a new skill—like fixing the tractor, keeping the mice out of the house, and keeping the internet working in the house.
They remembered the pros of living the rural life, and they learned to compensate for some of the cons of living outside the city.
Pros:
- You get to enjoy the quietness and peacefulness of living outside the noisy city. You get to hear the birds sing and smell the fresh air.
- You get to treat yourself and your family to outdoor entertainment like bonfires and gardening, hiking, and riding three-wheelers on the trails.
- Saving money is an advantage to living outside the city if you plan it right. You don't eat out so often and aren't in town every day to spend money. Also, property taxes are lower in the country.
Cons:
- You need to plan for trips to town to do business errands and get supplies.
- Power outages take longer to fix.
- It takes longer to get services from contractors and other professionals. When something breaks, you need to know how to fix it.
- It is a longer drive to hospitals, stores, and work if you don't work from home.
- The internet can be slow, which usually happens when you need it most.
Some of the financing programs to check out:
- USDA Rural Housing
- Bank loans
- Private loans
You can find more of these mortgage products in the book Choosing the Best Mortgage-The Quickest Way to the Life You Want by Jo Garner on Amazon and Barnes and Noble
The big moves in rates last week also created a large move in mortgage applications. With purchase applications going up by 4% and refinances rising by 18%, people are looking to fix their costs NOW!
Working the higher end rental markets has been going exceptionally well. All of the people I am working with are seeing a great deal of positive feedback and with rents rising rapidly, those in the luxury rental market are now seeking ownership to solve their housing issues. These borrowers often have assets, great credit, and enter the housing arena in the mid to upper range of the market, so higher loan sizes and more predictable transactions.
As this is being posted we will shortly get the unemployment numbers for this week, followed shortly thereafter by the factory orders report. Keep an eye open as these could cause some reaction.
Most importantly, Friday morning we have the January Jobs Report which always has the attention of the markets. So PLEASE keep yourself aware of the market movers and when news breaks that can impact the rate markets. With the 10yr sitting on top of resistance at 1.77, a break below that number and managing to stay there, could be very helpful to mortgage rates. However, a bounce higher and that could push mortgage rates.
The 30yr UMBS 30 is fighting to get back above 102.19, but bad news could push that coupon down toward the next level of support of 101.57. I know a 60bps move doesn’t seem like a lot given recent history, but that history tells us that that move could happen lightning fast! So just keep track of market movers, as always, if you like it, LOCK IT!
Questions or comments: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The PGA tour is underway now with the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am scheduled for Feb 3-6 and the PGA Championship taking place MAY 19 – 22, 2022 at Southern Hills CC, Tulsa, OK. Eager golf fans are ready to be a part of the game be it live on the course or watching via streaming apps.
I have long been a Pebble Beach resident and have spent many enjoyable days on the course with friends and well-known sports names. My dear friend the late actor James Garner and I were regular players there and he really wasn’t someone you wanted to make much noise around when he was concentrating! As you know, Pebble Beach isn’t just the No. 1 public course in America. Pebble Beach is the No. 1 Golf Resort in America. Reminiscing about old friends and neighbors and a stunningly beautiful course led me to revisit the change in months for the PGA Championship.
Not all that long ago, the PGA Championship was always in August. Why is it now in May?
The PGA Championship is one of the PGA Tour’s 4 annual major championships. Each major is put on by a different entity. This major is put on by the PGA of America, the teaching arm of professional golf. It had traditionally been put on in the fall for many years, but now has moved to May to help with the Tour’s wraparound scheduling and to get it out of the way of the Olympics, the FedEx Cup run to the Tour Championship. And let’s not forget that by August, MLB is in full swing and the NFL is playing preseason games which takes away some interest in golf.
Back to the original question… why was the tournament moved to May?
In August of 2017 Pete Bevacqua, CEO of the PGA of America announced that the PGA Championship would be moving from August to May and that they had been discussing it for four years at that point.
From Golf Digest:
Our analysis quickly proved to us that with a late May date:
- We would be able to continue to conduct the PGA Championship at many of the great historic courses in the Northeast with the likelihood of more temperate weather and certainly healthier turf conditions.
- Some of our more Southern venues would be even more appealing with less heat and more challenging playing conditions.
- Other great areas and sites around the country suddenly become far more attractive in May as opposed to August.
- Television and media consumption are as healthy or healthier during that time of year.
- We would welcome the opportunity to be the second of the four majors in the annual major golf chronology.
- It makes sense for an organization whose members serve as the tangible connection between the game and just about all of us who play it here in the United States, to have our major championship occur earlier in the golf season so we can more effectively promote along with our broadcast partners our grow-the-game initiatives that our members bring to life.
I believe we can all agree that golf is a recreational force of nature, played in some of the most beautiful locations in the world no matter what season.
Will you login with your favorite course and your favorite professional golf tournaments?
Obviously, the media surrounding Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ stance on his personal decision to not get the COVID-19 vaccine to inoculate him from the virus that is raging our country is of great concern to the National Football League as well as the effect it has on the rest of our country. As a member of an organization (Green Bay Packers) does a single individual have that right to not participate? Does his individual decision affect his teammates?
As you ponder the situation with Rodgers also consider the case of Novak Djokovic, arguably the best male tennis player in the world. Djokovic, a Serbian professional tennis player was recently denied entry into Australia to play the 2022 Australian Open and was deported from Australia after losing an appeal against visa cancellation. He was denied an opportunity to seek his tenth trophy which would break his own record as well as his 21st victory from all major championships. The fans could care less that he has not been vaccinated (an Australian mandate) as they just want to see this champion play.
“Rules are rules,” said the Australian administrator. Since you witnessed Rodgers quarterbacking the Packers yesterday, either he complied with the vaccination mandate, or maybe the NFL decided he needed to play – not sure where this ended up.
Regardless, the issue here is, do individual rights supersede those of the organization’s rules?
Will you log-in your thoughts on this issue?
Your phone rings in the middle of a typical routine day. You click to answer, and the voice on the other line delivers a message that spins your life into a completely different reality. So, what do YOU do when you are smacked from your blindside? Try these four steps if the unexpected circumstance negatively affects your income or your expenses.
1st- Don't panic.
Take deep breaths, pray and put together a plan. A clear mind and a hopeful heart will help you create a sound strategy. Where do you need to be? What products and services does your family absolutely NEED?
2nd- Restructure your budget to have money left over each month to put into savings and for emergencies.
If you need to lower overall payments with creditors, call them to see if you can get the interest rate or minimum payments reduced.
Can you pick up an extra-paying job? Can you rent out part of your home to increase income?
Sell stuff like at a garage sale. Can you switch out one expense for one that gives you the same benefit but at a lesser cost? Can you split the cost of some products or services with someone else who can use it?
3rd- Work on your credit
The higher your credit score, the lower the interest rate you enjoy when you borrow money. An excellent credit score is 780-850. A good score is 700-779. An average score is 660- 679. Scores in the 600's will not get you the best pricing when you borrow money.
Check www.annualcreditreport.com to make sure there are no errors on your credit report. When you find errors, work with your creditors and the three credit bureaus to complete corrections.
Settle and satisfy any past due or delinquent accounts. Consider waiting until you have spoken with a mortgage officer and gotten preapproved for your financing before paying off delinquent accounts since paying off a derogatory bill can cause your credit score to go down before the score goes back up.
Never let your balances owed on each credit card show over 30% balance/credit line.
Stay away from 12-months-same-as-cash.
4th Use available resources provided by the government, your community, a non-profit agency, or friends and family. Free legal services. S.C.O.R.E. Senior Corps of Retired Executives gives free help to small business owners.
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I have shared for the last six months my concerns about inflation, higher mortgage rates, and what all of this will mean to the housing and mortgage industries. I maintained the position of: “If you like it, LOCK IT” so everyone could avoid the unpleasant rise in rates that was before us. We have dealt with significant volatility on an almost daily basis, but sooner or later we had to break away from the bottom of the rate market in a meaningful way, and it appears that point has come.
Mortgage rates have gone up significantly since the beginning of the year as we have lost about (depending on which coupon you track) 200 bps and as treasuries continue to climb. The FED is painfully behind the curve as they finally had to admit inflation was real and that they were surprised by how bad things really were. The good news in all of this is that while we are not at the bottom of the rate market any longer and the flood of refinances are now gone; we have in front of us a strong purchase market and while rates and home prices drive monthly payments higher, RENTS are going up even faster in many markets. I have clients that are seeing 25% and higher rent increases in their markets, and that is quite the payment shock.
The winning strategy is to face and present the facts and show people how a simple Google search presents them with information. While mortgage rates in the high 3’s and low 4’s are certainly not as much fun as the mid 2’s; it’s not 18.45% with 2 points we saw in October of 1981 or 8% and 1 point in 2000; or 6% in 2008; or even 5% in 2010. We recently saw 4.5% with .5 point in 2018 and were solidly in the mid 4% range in May of 2019.
You need to share payment information in your price points and in your markets. You need to compare them to RENT payments for similar types of properties. You can even share the rising costs of gasoline, food, and other products that recent inflation has brought us and know that people can lock in their interest rate, cost of their house, and P&I payment when they buy today. Isn’t that WHY people use 30-year fixed rate mortgages, to lock in their P&I payment in the first place?
Questions or comments: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
“There are no secrets to success. It is the result of preparation, hard work and learning from failure.” Colin Powell
Are you ready for the economic changes coming in 2022? Game changers this year are the rise in inflation to 40-year highs and the promise from the Federal Reserve to raise their rates multiple times throughout the year. Mortgage rates tend to go up with inflation and the rates on most equity lines and credit cards go up when the Federal Reserve rates go up.
Here are some maintenance tips you don’t need to ignore:
YOUR CREDIT AND CREDIT SCORE
Keeping your credit score high allows you to enjoy getting lower interest rates when you borrow to buy a car or a house. You have a high credit score if your score is 760 to 850 on the FICO scoring system. A good score is 740 to 759. If your credit score falls into the 600’s you can expect to pay higher interest when you borrow money.
Phillip and Farrah Fenton got prequalified with a mortgage company several months ago on a very low mortgage rate. As mortgage rates started their upward trend, the Fenton’s suddenly found that the loan amount they qualified for was less than when they started out. They did not want to settle for a less expensive home, so the Fenton’s started working on their credit score. As their credit improved, the much higher credit score put the Fenton’s in a much better pricing bracket, keeping them at the mortgage rate they needed.
To improve or maintain your credit score, make sure you make your payments on time. Review your credit once a year or more at www.annualcreditreport.com to make sure there are no errors. Work with the credit bureaus to get errors corrected. The three major credit bureaus are Experian, Transunion and Equifax.
Don’t use more than 30% of the total credit limit on any revolving accounts. For instance, if you have a credit card with a credit limit of $1,000, never allow the owed balance to go over $300 during the month. Showing usage of only a small portion of the credit limit on a credit card or other revolving account tends to add points to the credit score.
Stay away from 12-months-same-as-cash because they act like new, maxed out revolving accounts. People with older revolving accounts who use only a small portion of the credit limit, see higher scores than people who are just starting out with newly opened accounts.
YOUR BUDGET
Set a timer and play some of your favorite tunes while you review your bank statements, credit card statements and your income documents for the last few months to determine how much you can comfortably afford on a house payment per month and how much you can pay down at closing and keep an emergency fund. Eliminate unnecessary expenses, switching some of your buying to products that give you the same benefits but at a much lesser cost.
Amelia Allison was young, frugal, and focused. She knew she wanted to own her home so it would build wealth for her over time, but adventure called her name. How could she afford to pay for a home and still live her adventurous life? Amelia decided to buy a house that would pay her to live there. She purchased a four-plex home and lived in one unit. The rent she got from the other three units more than paid for her mortgage and gave her some extra money to fund her adventures. Creating income from the home helped Amelia make room in her budget to buy the home.
CHOOSE THE RIGHT MORTGAGE PROGRAM
An experienced mortgage officer who truly listens to your needs will help you explore various mortgage products. Depending on how long you plan to keep the house and your comfort level on a down payment and monthly payment amount, one mortgage program might be better for you than another one.
In a competitive market where buyers are competing with other homebuyers to purchase the same house, it is very important to have a strong prequalification letter from your lender to show the seller of the home you want to buy. Go ahead and allow your lender to review your credit and your income and asset documents. A letter stating the strength of your loan application can give you the edge over someone else with a weaker lender letter.
Taking the extra steps and going the extra mile toward improving your credit and defining your budget can help you find the very best mortgage product and terms for your home purchase or refinance. Taking the time and energy in the beginning to work on these areas will bring a sweet feeling of accomplish later when you get the home and the loan you can brag about for years.
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