Monday Morning Quarterback

Written by Posted On Monday, 17 April 2023 09:01
 

Monday Morning Quarterback
(Monday, April 17, 2023)

While most restaurants are thrilled if they survive 100 days, one legendary L.A. restaurant just celebrated 100 years! Yes, Happy Birthday to El Cholo on Western Avenue. In celebration, the City of Los Angeles honored the owners of the legacy Mexican restaurant, renaming the intersection of Western Avenue and 11th Street as Alejandro and Rosa Borquez Square. The name acknowledges the founders of El Cholo, the historic and beloved “Spanish Café” who opened their restaurant in LA 100 years ago. The city held a ceremony to honor the occasion last Thursday, which was attended by owner Ron Salisbury (the grandson of the founders), and by Brendon Salisbury (the restaurant group’s current Chief Financial Officer). As a recovering ex-restaurateur, I admire and appreciate their accomplishments. Congratulations El Cholo on 100 years! In other real estate news, let’s dig into the details…

 
 

 
 

CPI Shows Inflation Stays Stubbornly High. Consumer prices rose a scant 0.1% in March largely because of lower energy costs. But U.S. inflation more broadly was still high and showed little sign of quickly subsiding. The yearly rate of inflation slowed to 5% from 6% and touched the lowest level since May 2021. However, the so-called “core rate” of inflation that omits food and energy rose a sharper 0.4%. (Note: Federal Reserve officials don’t ignore food and energy given their importance as household staples, but they view the core rate as a more accurate predictor of future inflation trends.) The increase in the core rate over the past 12 months moved up to 5.6% from 5.5%. These prices have fallen more slowly than the broader CPI and point to inflation remaining stubbornly high through most of the year. A nearly 5% decline in seasonally adjusted gasoline prices largely explains the soft headline reading on inflation. Yet gas prices have risen again after OPEC said it would cut production last week, so the decline could be reversed in the April CPI report. In a good sign, the cost of groceries fell for the first time since September 2020. Egg prices sank again, down almost 11%, as a huge increase in costs late last year tied to the bird flu continued to unwind. Grocery prices are still 8.4% higher compared to a year ago, however. The cost of shelter rose sharply again, led by a 2.7% jump in hotel prices and 0.5% in rents. Housing is the single biggest category of the CPI. Rents and home prices appear to be easing, however, and decelerating shelter costs are expected to show up in the CPI later in the year. Prices of used vehicles, an early contributor to the runup in U.S. inflation, fell for the fifth month in a row. The cost of medical care also fell.

 
 

 
 

Only 17% Of LA Households Earn Enough To Buy A Home. It’s no secret that buying a home in the Los Angeles area is expensive. But a new report shows that homeownership is only getting further out of reach for most buyers, with just 17% of L.A. County households earning enough to afford a median-priced home. The California Association of Realtors released its “2022 Affordability Report” last Wednesday. The real estate trade association determined that local households needed to earn at least $192,800 per year in order to afford L.A. County’s 2022 median home price of $849,410. Those figures assumed buyers had enough money on hand for a 20% down payment ($170,000). According to the report, about 25% of white households and 22% of Asian households in L.A. County could afford a median-priced home. Only 10% of Latino households and 9% of Black households earned enough to qualify. Home prices in the L.A. area have declined slightly over the past year, but interest rates have gone up, causing monthly mortgage, tax and insurance payments to soar to around $4,820, according to the report. Because of this increase, the share of L.A. County households that could afford to buy a home declined from about one-in-five in 2021 to one-in-six in 2022. Demographers have pointed to unaffordable housing as a key driver in L.A. County’s declining population. But more importantly, it makes it harder and harder for investors to sell houses. Bottom line: Investors should be investing out-of-state.

California’s $300 Million Home Loans Are Already Exhausted. California lawmakers marketed its new loan program for first-time home buyers as a “Dream For All.” But just 11 days after applications opened, the initial pot of money is tapped out, sucked dry by eager house hunters. It turns out the “dream” was only for a lucky few thousand borrowers (a disproportionate number of them white, non-Latino and living in the Sacramento area). The Dream for All program was paused on April 6, less than two weeks after the California Housing Finance Agency said it would make the program available to lenders. About $288 million in initial funding will be provided to only 2,564 homebuyers, according to an internal document obtained by CalMatters. The complicated program involves the state paying the upfront costs for buying a home (namely, the down payment) in exchange for a share in the home’’s value when it is sold, refinanced or transferred. If the home appreciates in value, those gains to the state would then be used to fund the next borrowers. The program was meant, in part, to help address California’s ethnic and racial wealth gap, with Black and Latino families not having the required down payment. According to the initial characteristics, roughly two-thirds of the beneficiaries went to those making less than $125,000. The average loan was a little more than $112,000. But those figures also show that the program was disproportionately used by white homebuyers. Demographic data in the document obtained by CalMatters showed that 65% of initial buyers identified as white, 18% as Asian, 4% as Black, 1% as Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander and 1% American Indian or Alaska Native. Ethnically, 62% of homebuyers identified as not Hispanic or Latino while about 34% did. Geographically, the funds weren’t spread out evenly across the state either. Sacramento County, home to the state capital, received 11% of the program’s funds, despite making up just 4% of the state population. Los Angeles County, in contrast, received 9% of the money, despite being home to a quarter of all Californians. Eric Johnson, an agency spokesman, confirmed on Monday that the program would be paused until more funding could be allocated by the state legislature.

Private Investors Buy More Commercial Real Estate Than Institutions. As economic turmoil has roiled financial markets and institutions retreat from real estate, wealthy individuals have become the dominant buying class. Private investors were the most active buyers for worldwide commercial real estate last year, purchasing $455B in properties, or 41% of the global investment total, according to a Knight Frank Global Wealth Report. For the first time on record, private buyers' share of the market eclipsed those of institutional investors, which bought a total of $440B last year (a 28% decline in their investment activity in 2021), the Knight Frank report found. Private wealth from the U.S. in particular is projected to be the most active of those investors this year as well. Private buying activity fell just 8% from last year, by comparison. The hunt for value is evident in which asset classes investors put money into. Private buyers bought $62.5B of retail properties last year, 9% more than in 2021, and $30.6B of hotels, a 17% increase. Offices were the second-most-active asset class, with $84.1B of purchases, a 4% dip from 2021. Private investors spent $194.9B on apartment properties last year, a 13% decline from 2021. Private buyers' newfound perch atop the investment pecking order reflects the aftermath of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, which have changed the risk calculus for investing. All-cash buyers were increasingly the last bidder standing for properties at the end of last year, as lending dried up.

Private Home Designed by Thomas Jefferson On Virginia Farm. Thomas Jefferson was a pretty amazing person. In between writing the Declaration of Independence, serving as Secretary of State under George Washington, Vice President under John Adams, and then serving as the third President of the United States, his favorite hobby was architecture. His passion (besides wine) was designing and building homes. Jefferson’s dream for a new American architectural style was based on the classical ideals of ancient Greece and Rome, when democracy flourished. And in fact, as President, Jefferson modified the White House to add typical Palladian elements, including the two lateral wings and the pronaos (the porch that rests on columns, at both the north and the south entrances). The last designed residence attributed to Jefferson is known as Edgemont, a Palladian mansion in the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains, near Charlottesville, Virginia. Surrounded by 572 acres of rolling Virginia farmland, with the Hardware River running through the lush fields, the estate is available for sale for $19 million. The mansion was built in 1796. There are three bedrooms and 3.5 bathrooms within 4,836 sq ft. The ingeniously efficient layout of Edgemont’s interiors is quintessentially Jeffersonian. The two-level structure appears to be a single-story home from the front, another Jeffersonian device. The main entry is on the upper floor and opens into a reception hall with walls covered by a sweeping mural of a hunting scene. Beautifully maintained and carefully updated for the 21st century, surely Jefferson would be happy Edgement is doing so well all these 226 years later. The $19 million price tag, however, might shock him.

 
 

 
 

Arnold Schwarzenegger Fills Pesky L.A. Potholes. If you drove along Mandeville Canyon Road in Brentwood last week, you might have seen our former Governor hard at work. He was shoveling asphalt repair mix into potholes in the street. The frustrated former governor (and movie star) took to the streets with a shovel, a bucket and a “do it yourself” attitude after he said he’d waited three weeks for the city to repair his local road. “Today, after the whole neighborhood has been upset about this giant pothole that’s been screwing up cars and bicycles for weeks, I went out with my team and fixed it,” Schwarzenegger said in a tweet “I always say, let’s not complain, let’s do something about it. Here you go.” However, at least one of the holes was a service trench meant to be used for permitted work by Southern California Gas Co. SoCalGas crews completed an upgrade on a pipeline at the end of January and “applied temporary paving over the excavation,” the utility company said in a statement. Typically, SoCalGas applies permanent paving within about 30 days of the project completion, but the schedule was delayed due to the rain, according to the statement, which said paving should be complete by the end of the week. Schwarzenegger intended to fix a problem he saw in his neighborhood, but if his actions brought attention to needed road repairs then that’s a positive development. Bravo to Arnold for the effort. Now if our former governor could just lead a super-hero crew to fix all the potholes in the city that would be amazing. But Schwarzenegger has a long way to go. Los Angeles has received 19,642 pothole repair service requests since December. 

 
 

 
 

Women Can Now Swim Topless In Berlin. CNN reports that women in Berlin can now swim topless in the city's public pools if they choose (just as men can). And it’s about time! The move reflects Germany's tradition of nudity. Hailed as a step forward for gender equality in the German capital, the measure introduced this week is symptomatic of Germany’s love of Freikoerperkultur (literally translated as 'free body culture') which has its roots in the late 19th century. Berlin's authorities took action after a female swimmer said she was prevented from attending one of the city's pools without covering her chest in December 2022. The woman lodged a complaint with the city's ombudsman's office at the Senate Department for Justice, Diversity and Anti-Discrimination. Authorities agreed that the woman had been a victim of discrimination and this week said that all visitors to Berlin's pools, including women and those who identify as non-binary, are permitted to go topless. It follows a similar incident at a Berlin water park in the summer of 2021. French woman Gabrielle Lebreton sought financial compensation from the city after security guards ordered her to leave the premise when she refused to cover up her breasts. Berlin's state government confirmed the move in a press release Thursday. "As a result of a successful discrimination complaint, the Berlin bathing establishments will in future apply their house and bathing regulations in a gender-equitable manner," the statement reads. The head of the ombudsman's office, Dr. Doris Liebscher, hailed the move as a step forward for gender equality in the city. "Women, if comfortable with their own bodies and sometimes gawking strangers, won't have a problem displaying their torsos in any case. It is great that there are no penalties for an accidental nip-slip so all in all, this is a beautiful thing." The move is not unprecedented for Germany, with Goettingen in central Germany becoming the first city in the country to allow women to swim topless in public pools last summer. With Berlin leading the way, can Los Angeles be far behind?

 
 

 
 

T. Rex Had Lips That Concealed Its Teeth. In my never-ending search to bring you the latest scientific news, chew on this. Contrary to popular depictions of the king of dinosaurs, a new study suggests the Tyrannosaurus rex’s fearsome teeth were actually hidden behind lizard-like lips. The paper, published Thursday in the journal Science, proposes a change in how the world sees T. rex. It might be time to shift the toothy imagining of the dinosaur that filmmakers have picked up on, leading to blockbuster movies like Jurassic Park. Before this study, scientists thought the T. rex had a mouth similar to a crocodile’s, in which the teeth are visible even when the jaw is shut. Given the close relation between the reptiles, this hypothesis made sense. Furthermore, many paleontologists believed that T. rex teeth were simply too large not to poke out of the dinosaurs’ mouths. In fact, some Tyrannosaurus teeth might have been longer than six inches, per the Wall Street Journal’s Aylin Woodward. However, a tooth from a Daspletosaurus, a T. rex relative, provided a key piece of evidence in support of lips. The scientists embedded the tooth in resin and used a diamond-studded saw to slice into it—an incredibly stressful job. They realized that the tooth’s enamel lacked significant wear had the dinosaur’s tooth been exposed to dry air in a lip-free mouth, its enamel would have been more degraded. The only conclusion scientists could draw was that the T.rex had lips. Keep this in mind the next time you kiss a dinosaur.

 
 

 
 

Women Making Moves (& Money) in Real Estate.  Join us on Thursday night, May 11, 2022, when we have a very special panel on women investors. Our moderator will be Deborah Razo, President of the Women’s Real Estate Network (“WREN”). Deborah is an all-star investor, including fixing and flipping houses, residential construction, and multi-residential properties in the U.S. and Puerto Rico. The panel will feature Cindy Coleman discussing note investing, Courtney Jones discussing wholesaling and creative financing techniques, and Jen Maldonado discussing raising capital for your projects. The women will be discussing how they started investing and challenges they confronted along the way. If you’re a woman investor, DO NOT miss these talented women! (If you’re a man, you can attend, but at your own risk!) Iman Cultural Center, 3376 Motor Avenue (between National and Palms), Los Angeles, 90034 (Culver City adjacent). FREE Admission. Metered street parking. RSVP at www.LARealEstateInvestors.com.

 
 

 
 

Vendors Expo Returns! Attend our super-duper world-famous "Real Estate Vendors Expo." Thursday night, May 11, 2022. The Vendor Expo opens at 6:30 pm. We'll have 40+ of the finest vendors featuring real estate products and services you will want to utilize as you invest in real estate. And stick around after for our WREN panel discussion. Iman Cultural Center, 3376 Motor Avenue (between National and Palms), Los Angeles, CA 90034. FREE Admission. (Parking: see below.) Please RSVP at www.LARealEstateInvestors.com.

 
 

 
 

Parking (Iman Cultural Center). Recently attendees have complained about the lack of parking. But fear not. If there is no available street parking when you arrive, there are two FREE parking structures just two blocks away. The first structure is at the northeast corner of Motor and Palms. The second structure is at the northeast corner of Motor and National. From either lot it is short two block walk to the Iman.

LARealEstateInvestors.com Podcast. We are very excited about our weekly podcast, "LARealEstateInvestors.com" (cleverly named after our domain) hosted by our very own Bill Gross. Bill has been a Realtor, broker and real estate investor since the Ice Age! No one is more experienced in local Southern California real estate than Bill Gross. Each week Bill interviews real estate professionals sharing their insights and advice for real estate investors. Every Tuesday live at 3:00 pm, and anytime thereafter on YouTube, Facebook, Zoom, and Google.

This Week. Investors will continue to keep a close eye on the banking sector for signs that troubles are not spreading to other institutions. We will also watch to see if Fed officials elaborate on their plans for future monetary policy. But it will be a light week for economic data with a focus on the housing sector. The National Association of Home Builders will release its hosing market index for April today (4/17). Housing Starts will be released tomorrow (4/18) by the Census Bureau. The National Association of Realtors will release its Existing Home Sales on Thursday (4/20).  

Weekly Changes:

10-year Treasuries:            Rose  010 bps

Dow Jones Average:          Rose  400 points

NASDAQ:                           Rose  100 points

Calendar:

Tuesday (4/18):                   Housing Starts

Thursday (4/20):                  Existing Home Sales

Thursday (4/20):                  Jobless Claims

 
 

For further information, comments, and questions:

Lloyd Segal

President

Los Angeles County Real Estate Investors Association, LLC

www.LARealEstateInvestors.com

310-409-8310

 
 

 
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