Please attribute the following statement to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun on today's jobs report data:
“Job gains continued in October, with 261,000 additional people receiving W-2 statement salaries. There are almost one million more workers now compared to pre-pandemic. But if we consider all workers, including those on commission-based income, there were a net 328,00 job cuts in the past month and slightly fewer workers now compared to pre-pandemic. That is why the unemployment rate went up to 3.7%. The wage gain was 4.7%, well below the consumer price inflation of 8.2%. The bond market is not liking the news as the yield on the 10-year U.S. government borrowing rate rose to 4.2%. The bond market wants a clear picture of dissipating inflation from a lackluster labor market. Mortgage rates, therefore, could be nudged higher after a brief fall this week. However, the mortgage rate could continue to fall if the gap with the government borrowing rate returns to its historical average spread of around 180 basis points. Currently, it is at 300 basis points. In other words, the 30-year mortgage rate could be at 6% today and not 7%. It’s worth investigating why there is such a large spread.”
Lawrence Yun is Chief Economist and oversees the Research group at the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. He supervises and is responsible for a wide range of research activity for the association including NAR's Existing Home Sales statistics, Affordability Index, and Home Buyers and Sellers Profile Report. He regularly provides commentary on real estate market trends for its 1.4 million REALTORS®.
Dr. Yun creates NAR's forecasts and participates in many economic forecasting panels, among them the Blue Chip Council and the Wall Street Journal Forecasting Survey. He also participates in the Industrial Economists Discussion Group at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. He appears regularly on financial news outlets, is a frequent speaker at real estate conferences throughout the United States, and has testified before Congress. Dr. Yun has also appeared as a guest on CSPAN's Washington Journal.
Dr. Yun received his undergraduate degree from Purdue University and earned his Ph.D. from the University of Maryland at College Park.
