Today, we are in an era of drastic technological transformation. With the increasing use of digital technologies that include everything from 3D printing to various applications of extended reality, how we do business is constantly and dramatically transforming in ways that we have not seen since the industrial revolution!
While company leaders have long been questioning how to navigate this quickly changing landscape, Anticipatory Leaders are one step ahead, leveraging the ever-evolving digital landscape in front of us. In doing so, they are integrating artificial intelligence (AI), augmented reality (AR), edge computing as it relates to data processing, and so much more.
As a business leader, it’s imperative to grasp that the ongoing technological revolution reshaping the business landscape is an indisputable future certainty—a Hard Trend that’s here to stay. While numerous technological innovations have already initiated substantial shifts in a wide array of business operations, some leaders and managers who prioritize adaptability over forward planning might entertain the notion of a forthcoming pause—a plateau where they can recalibrate and bridge any gaps. However, such a hiatus does not exist, nor will it ever materialize. The trajectory of technological evolution is constant and unceasing.
How we conduct business is changing right now and will only continue to do so with increasing velocity, so the key is to not only embrace the technological disruption, but to anticipate it and find a way to get your team excited about it! The second part of that should be easy, given the opportunities that are bountiful within the disruption itself.
Before all else, you need to transition into a role as an Anticipatory Leader to see where technology is headed in order to find the opportunity for your business.
3 Hard Trends Transforming Technology and Business
Recently, there have been some specific technology sectors that are proving to be the most disruptive yet equally as beneficial for businesses and organizations that are leveraging them. These have been extensively explored in past blog posts I have written, but there are so many new applications for them that they are worth re-exploring.
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Datafication
Datafication involves leveraging data gathered from our daily activities to facilitate the creation of novel products or services, as well as the enhancement of existing ones. Our actions continually generate data across a spectrum of endeavors, ranging from the music we stream on platforms like Spotify to our interactions with digitally sophisticated vehicles during travel. In this context, edge computing stands out as a technological stride that enables data processing to occur in immediate proximity to its origin, presenting a substantial advantage. As 5G networks proliferate and data processing mechanisms streamline, the viability of such edge computing approaches is poised to amplify significantly.
While we are familiar with specific websites and smartphone apps that adeptly utilize your browsing history to facilitate ongoing purchases or engagement, like Amazon or Google, an even deeper evolution of customer service within organizations has been orchestrated by Vail Systems, Inc. This company employs basic data analytics extracted from customer phone calls to refine and enhance automated customer service systems. This innovative approach eliminates the need for painstakingly enunciating your responses when seeking assistance, heralding a more streamlined and efficient customer support experience.
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Extended Reality
Extended reality may sound like an addition to mixed reality (MR), virtual reality (VR), and augmented reality (AR), but really, it is simply the umbrella term referring to any type of digital landscape or integration of digital assets into the physical world. Gaming and entertainment have certainly exploded in the past by incorporating MR, VR, and AR; however, I constantly find myself informing business leaders and executives of the many exponential ways these software applications can be utilized in their various industries.
The concept of any extended reality application is to create an immersive experience that brings the human sensory experience into the digital world on some level. But how can something like AR be used in something tactile like the beauty and cosmetics world — a sector said to be worth nearly half a trillion dollars by some? My Dior answered this inquiry with its smartphone app that projected lipstick colors on its users’ lips, allowing them to sample without ever hitting the “Buy” button!
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3D Printing
Another Hard Trend that has long been revolutionizing the business world is the rise of 3D printing, also referred to as additive manufacturing. Using a machine to produce three-dimensional objects off of a two-dimensional blueprint, 3D printing provides easy part customization options, quicker turn-around times, the ability to produce products on demand (minimizing having to ship products from overseas), and ultimately results in reduced manufacturing costs and a far more sustainable industry as a whole.
Auto manufacturers have slowly taken to 3D printed parts for many integral components of their vehicles, with Volkswagen being a notable leader. They not only produce parts for new vehicles, but they also have been known to 3D print tools and replacement parts for classic cars that are not in production any longer. When looking at the big picture, this can help preserve automobiles and ultimately cut down on large-scale litter of disregarded clunkers.
Find the Opportunity and Make It Your Own
Now that we have identified that the increasing use of datafication, extended reality, and 3D printing are fully predictable Hard Trend future certainties, the second step is to implement your own Anticipatory mindset in discovering exactly where these trends are headed for your industry and to find the opportunity they present to you and your team.
Unfortunately, many business leaders are afraid of where technology is headed, but it is my goal to ease this stress with the power of critical, exponential thinking and the many Anticipatory principles at your full disposal. I do not want you to fall behind the curve; I want you to be the disruptor instead of the disrupted!
What I hope this blog post has illustrated to you and your team is that keeping your opportunity antennae up is not only about looking at the digital disruptions themselves, but also being on the lookout for what other industries are doing with various technologies and how you might be able to adapt that to your industry. You may not be in the data processing, cosmetics, or auto industry, but there are indisputable ways that those same technologies can be critically leveraged to produce exceptional results for new products, services, or processes.
Also, it is time to do a deep dive into your current products, services, or processes themselves and see how today’s new technologies can help you redefine things — redefine your customer base, redefine your production methods, redefine your internal operations, and redefine your company overall. New is not always the answer, as sometimes you can simply rehash what already exists in profound ways.
Reporting back from the street has been very positive when it comes to the reaction from accountants to the calls about tax extensions. These conversations have caused some meetings and a few immediate referrals, and we are just a week removed from the plan. It is very interesting to see how a simple phone call and a brief conversation can change the perspective of other professionals. Most accountants don’t have much use for mortgage professionals until they come across mortgage professionals who understands their business and provides an important value added to them and their clients.
I am also seeing continued results from the back-to-school conversations as the final wave of kids head back to school. I actually think this year has been the strongest in the past three or four years when it comes to seeing these conversations turn into opportunities. Between functional obsolescence conversations and the awareness of the monthly cost of getting what people want and need has really taken this talk to a whole new level. Being able to frame the conversation around total monthly payments and not simply arguing rates has proven productive and profitable!
Oil prices will become an issue with inflation if the Fed chooses to make it an issue. The Fed meeting coming up next week is likely not going to move rates all that much, even if they leave rates unchanged as expected, it will be more about the tone of their remarks and if they signal a “pause” or “the peak” of the tightening cycle. We will have to see the details and let the markets react. We are in a very strange cycle now and it’s impossible to get a clear long-term picture at the moment, but doing nothing at this meeting will certainly be a good step into the future!
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Some homebuyers got cold feet as mortgage rates hit the highest level in over two decades and prices continued to rise, but buyer demand and new listings have stabilized following months of declines
Residential real estate deals are falling through at the highest rate in almost a year as high mortgage rates give homebuyers sticker shock, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
Nationwide, nearly 60,000 home-purchase agreements were canceled in August, equal to 15.7% of homes that went under contract that month. That’s up from 14.3% a year earlier and marks the highest percentage since October 2022, when mortgage rates surpassed 7% for the first time in two decades.
The average interest rate on a 30-year-fixed mortgage was 7.07% in August. At one point last month, it hit 7.23%—the highest since 2001—sending the typical homebuyer’s monthly payment up significantly from last year.
“I’ve seen more homebuyers cancel deals in the last six months than I’ve seen at any point during my 24 years of working in real estate. They’re getting cold feet,” said Jaime Moore, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Reno, NV. “Buyers get sticker shock when they see their high rate on paper alongside extra expenses for maintenance, repairs and closing costs. Many of them would rather back out, even if it means losing their earnest money. A lot of sellers are also willing to let buyers slip away because they don’t want to concede to repair requests.”
Home Prices Post Biggest Increase in Almost a Year
The median U.S. home sale price rose 3% year over year to $420,846 in August, the largest annual increase since October 2022, and was little changed (-0.2%) from a month earlier. It was 2.8% below the May 2022 record high of $432,780.
Activity in the housing market is sluggish due to rising mortgage rates, but prices remain high because the buyers who are out there are competing for a limited number of homes.
“Home prices will likely remain elevated for the foreseeable future,” said Redfin Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao. “The Federal Reserve still has more work to do in its battle against inflation, which means mortgage rates are unlikely to come down anytime soon. As long as rates remain high, homeowners will be reluctant to sell. And that lack of homes for sale will keep prices high because it means buyers are duking it out for a limited supply of houses.”
Home prices also posted a year-over-year gain in August due to the “base effect” from a year earlier; in August 2022, prices had recently started descending from their record high, which is contributing to the size of year-over-year increases we’re seeing now.
Buyer Demand Is Below Pre-Pandemic Levels, But No Longer in Freefall
Pending sales declined 0.6% from a month earlier in August on a seasonally-adjusted basis, and fell 18.1% year over year. While they’re no longer falling as rapidly as they were earlier in 2023, pending sales remain below pre-pandemic levels. They’ve been hovering below 400,000 since the end of last year, compared with nearly 500,000 just before the pandemic.
Pending sales have stabilized as the initial shock of elevated mortgage rates has moved further into the rearview mirror, but high housing costs are still keeping many buyers on the sidelines.
New Listings Tick Up Slightly, But Overall Housing Supply Remains at Record Low
New listings rose 0.8% from a month earlier in August—the second small uptick on a seasonally adjusted basis following nearly a year’s worth of declines—and were down 14.4% year over year.
“New listings have likely bottomed out,” Zhao said. “Most of the homeowners who feel handcuffed by high rates have already made the decision not to sell. That means many of today’s sellers are putting their homes on the market because they have to, in some cases due to divorce, family emergencies or return-to-office policies.”
Still, the total number of homes for sale hit a record low in August, falling 1.1% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis and 20.8% year over year—the largest annual decline since June 2021.
Housing supply is at an all-time low because homeowners feel locked in to their low mortgage rates; for many, selling their home and buying a new one would mean taking on a much higher monthly payment.
August 2023 Highlights: United States
|
August 2023 |
Month-Over-Month Change |
Year-Over-Year Change |
|
|
Median sale price |
$420,846 |
-0.2% |
3.0% |
|
Pending sales, seasonally adjusted |
381,192 |
-0.6% |
-18.1% |
|
Homes sold, seasonally adjusted |
409,217 |
-1.4% |
-14.1% |
|
New listings, seasonally adjusted |
474,239 |
0.8% |
-14.4% |
|
All homes for sale, seasonally adjusted (active listings) |
1,301,871 |
-1.1% |
-20.8% |
|
Months of supply |
2 |
-0.2 |
-0.2 |
|
Median days on market |
30 |
1 |
4 |
|
Share of for-sale homes with a price drop |
18.4% |
2.2 ppts |
-1.7 ppts |
|
Share of homes sold above final list price |
36.2% |
-2.0 ppts |
-1.5 ppts |
|
Average sale-to-final-list-price ratio |
99.9% |
-0.2 ppts |
0.0 ppts |
|
Pending sales that fell out of contract, as % of overall pending sales |
15.7% |
0.5 ppts |
1.4 ppts |
|
Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
7.07% |
0.23 ppts |
1.85 ppts |
Metro-Level Highlights: August 2023
- Pending sales: In Boise, ID, pending sales fell 70.5% year over year, more than any other metro Redfin analyzed. Next came Hartford, CT (-57.3%) and New Haven, CT (-55.8%). Only two metros saw increases: Rochester, NY (0.9%) and McAllen, TX (0.5%). The smallest decline was in Detroit (-1.8%).
- Closed sales: In Bridgeport, CT, closed home sales dropped 25.9% year over year, more than any other metro Redfin analyzed. Next came Stockton, CA (-25.8%) and Tacoma, WA (-25.7%). Closed sales rose in just one metro—Las Vegas (1.4%)—and fell least in North Port, FL (-0.1%) and Phoenix (-2.9%).
- Prices: Median sale prices rose most from a year earlier in Newark, NJ (16.7%), Miami (14.6%) and Rochester (14.3%). They fell in 15 metros, with the steepest declines in Austin, TX (-7%), Boise (-5.8%) and Fort Worth, TX (-2.7%).
- Listings: New listings fell most from a year earlier in Hartford (-46.7%), Allentown, PA (-46.6%) and New Haven (-38.8%). They rose in five metros, with the biggest increases in North Port (6%), McAllen (2.4%) and Albany, NY (2.2%).
- Supply: Active listings fell most from a year earlier in Boise (-45.5%), Allentown (-45.4%) and Bridgeport (-45.1%). They climbed in six metros, with the biggest jumps in New Orleans (28.8%), McAllen (25.9%) and North Port (13.7%).
- Competition: In Rochester, 77.1% of homes sold above their final list price, the highest share among the metros Redfin analyzed. Next came Hartford (71.9%) and Buffalo, NY (69.6%). The shares were lowest in North Port (7.7%), Cape Coral, FL (10.6%) and West Palm Beach, FL (13%).
- Speed: The fastest market was Grand Rapids, MI, where the typical home went under contract in seven days. Next came Cincinnati (8) and Seattle (8). The slowest markets were New Orleans (61), Honolulu (60) and West Palm Beach (60).
To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-tracker-august-2023
According to Realtors® and Prospective Home Buyers Across Races and Ethnicities.
The current real estate market’s high home prices and mortgage rates, as well as limited inventory, are the top reasons that Realtors® and prospective home buyers across races and ethnicities cite as barriers to purchasing a home, according to two new reports from the National Association of Realtors®.
In partnership with Morning Consult, NAR’s 2023 Experiences & Barriers of Prospective Home Buyers Across Races/Ethnicities report surveyed White, Hispanic/Latino(a), Black and Asian prospective home buyers about their experiences. NAR’s 2023 Experiences & Barriers of Prospective Home Buyers: Member Study surveyed Realtors® who focus on residential real estate regarding the latest buyer with whom they worked who has not yet purchased a home, and it compares findings with the consumer study.
“Home buyers face the most difficult affordability conditions in nearly 40 years due to limited inventory and rising mortgage interest rates,” said Jessica Lautz, NAR’s deputy chief economist and vice president of research. “The impact is exacerbated among first-time buyers who are more likely to be from underrepresented segments of the population.”
Among prospective home buyers, Asian (27%), Hispanic (24%), Black (20%) and White (15%) respondents say the main reason they have not yet bought a home is because they are waiting for prices to drop. White respondents (15%) are just as likely to say it is because they are waiting for mortgage rates to drop. Additional market-related reasons that prospective home buyers cite as barriers include waiting for mortgage rates to decline (18% - 25% of all four groups) and not enough available homes within their budget (19% - 24% of all four groups).
The top three reasons why Realtors® say buyers have not yet purchased homes are the same as reported by consumers: not enough homes available for purchase in buyers’ budgets (34%), buyers are waiting for mortgage rates to drop as higher prices affect affordability (18%) and buyers are waiting for prices to drop (9%). These three factors greatly impact affordability since limited inventory drives up home prices and higher rates increase monthly mortgage payments.
Saving for a competitive home down payment is also a primary obstacle for prospective home buyers (6% - 9% of all four groups). In terms of what holds them back from saving for a sufficient down payment, prospective home buyers across races and ethnicities cite as barriers current rent/mortgage payments (43% - 56% of all four groups) and credit card payments (38% - 57% of all four groups). Despite this, awareness about existing down payment assistance programs is low among prospective buyers saving for down payments. Only 8% - 15% of all four groups applied for these programs, 20% - 33% considered but did not apply to these programs, 21% - 32% did not consider these programs, and one-third (30% - 33% of all four groups) say that they are not aware of these assistance programs. For prospective home buyers who are aware of down payment assistance programs, the primary reason they did not apply for them is because they did not know enough about the programs (44% - 58% of all four groups).
Likewise, more than half of Realtors® (53%) say that at least one issue is holding their latest buyer back from saving a competitive down payment: most likely current rent or mortgage payments (23%) or credit card balances or payments (17%). Further, only 23% of Realtors® say that their buyers experiencing these challenges have applied for down payment assistance programs. This is most likely because their income is too high (30%), they did not know enough about the programs (19%), or they are worried about the competitiveness of their offers in multiple-bid situations (17%).
“Down payment assistance programs often fly under the radar for potential home buyers. Using programs – like FHA, VA or USDA loans – can make homeownership more attainable. Experts, such as agents who are Realtors®, can educate potential buyers about these programs. Doing so will bring in more first-time buyers and narrow the racial homeownership gap,” added Lautz.
Discrimination also plays a role in the homebuying process. About one in six (13% - 16% of all four groups) prospective home buyers across races and ethnicities report facing discrimination. More than half of Black (63%), Asian (60%) and Hispanic (52%) prospective home buyers who report this say it was due to their race or ethnicity. Of these, the largest proportions of every group are most likely to report that this discrimination manifests in steering toward or away from specific neighborhoods (36% - 51% of all four groups) and more strict requirements (32% - 48% of all four groups). Despite all of this, most discrimination during the homebuying process goes unreported: 47% - 81% who describe it did not report it to a government agency or legal aid organization.
Interestingly, only 1% of Realtors® who took the survey report that their buyers experienced discrimination during the homebuying process, while 13% are not sure. Those reporting discrimination are most likely to say this is based on race or ethnicity and lay this at the feet of lenders, saying that buyers experienced this in the type of loan product offered (43%) or that buyers did not receive a call back from lender(s) (29%). Of those who report discrimination, 57% report it based on race, 29% report it based on age and 21% report it based on familial status (including marriage or parental status). Just 7% say that the buyer reported the discrimination, which was on the basis of either race or religion or both, to a government agency or legal aid organization.
To help address discriminatory practices in real estate, NAR offers several resources to its members, including Fairhaven, an interactive training simulation based on real fair housing cases; Bias Override, an implicit bias training course with practical tips to override bias; At Home With Diversity, a certification course aimed at serving diverse consumers; and a confidential voluntary self-testing program for brokerages to assess agents’ compliance with fair housing laws. In Washington, NAR advocates for strong fair housing and fair lending enforcement, and policies aimed at closing homeownership gaps among demographic groups.”
C-suite executives and leaders have a lot on their plates when it comes to successful management of their business or organization. They are in control of the organization’s image, a diverse team of individuals with diverse talents coming together to complete specific tasks, and the successful and timely implementation of multiple projects at any given time.
That is a lot to be responsible for, but as we all know, change is the only constant in the business world. My Anticipatory Organization® Model notes that digital disruption is starting to alleviate some of the need to manage traditional tasks that managers and other business leaders have long managed before. With this transformation, the tasks of managers and business leaders alike are starting to change as well.
What some leaders overlook now is their actual role as managers — the management of perception and distraction.
Perception and Distraction Affect Your Organization
Perception refers to how you and your employees view projects, the company, and customers. Conversely, perception is how customers view your company, its products, and how you solve their own troubles. How each of these elements interact with one another is a determining factor in the significance of your organization and, likewise, how perception turns into reality.
Put simply, perception originates internally and then extends outward. This implies that perception, much like disruption in an Anticipatory Organization, is within your control and can be managed by you and your team. The way you perceive yourselves and your team has a profound impact on your actions, strategies, and the success of the products you introduce.
These actions and products then determine the value customers attach to your organization and how they distinguish you from the competition. It does not happen the other way around. As such, the way you manage perception becomes either an asset to your organization or terribly detrimental!
Now, let’s shift our focus to managing distraction. Unlike perception, which involves creating transformation from the inside out, distraction often originates externally and moves inward, manifesting as disruption and change. Uncontrolled disruption becomes a distraction in its own right, diverting your attention from what truly matters and forcing you, as a leader, to handle crises with agility as an afterthought
So, since perception and distraction are what must be managed more frequently by the business leaders and managers of today, how can this be done to your strategic and competitive advantage instead of leaving them to cause you the stress of setbacks?
Skipping Problems with a Change in Perception
Perception often originates from within the organization, making it vital to see your team as a competitive advantage and a strategic asset for the business. Your team, comprised of critical thinkers and hardworking individuals, plays a significant role in the development and implementation of new products and services. It all starts with you, the business leader, viewing your team through this lens, which, in turn, will incentivize your employees to recognize and act as the valuable asset they truly are.
How does this impact perception of products, services, and customers? By becoming a positive outlook on the organization itself, the adjustment in perception affects how your employees perceive problems they encounter both at the organizational and customer level, tying in with my Skip It Principle.
Do customers perceive a product as being too pricey? Is your company software too slow? Or is it something different entirely? Having a team with a properly managed internal perception helps them effectively challenge the perceived problems that may be holding your organization back as a whole, especially since a perceived problem is not always the real root issue.
Venmo — an app owned by PayPal — allows friends, family, and others to exchange money electronically with no fees. To begin, Venmo had few users, but why was that? Was it a lack of necessity for customers? Was the app difficult to use? These were the questions facing the internal teams at PayPal.
While these questions were concerning, leaders and employees at PayPal refined their perception to skip those perceived problems and instead focus on the opportunity at hand. Customers liked the app, but what they needed most was convenience.
Thus, they launched a marketing campaign on how to use Venmo in stores with just a smartphone. No more need to go to ATMs for cash or carry countless credit cards, as Venmo does it all safely. As a result of this change in their perception of customer needs, Venmo exploded in popularity, becoming one of the most used apps for exchanging money.
Jump to Manage Opportunities Instead of Distractions
Because distractions come from outside of your organization in the form of various disruptions and changes, suddenly a business leader’s attention is held hostage and they have to crisis manage more frequently. Unfortunately, too much crisis management as a business leader shifts the company into neutral, where they become vulnerable to disruption rather than in control of it.
Instead of a reactive approach that involves managing disruption as it happens to avoid distraction, true industry leaders and innovators adopt my Anticipatory Leader approach, which centers on proactively staying ahead of disruption. I’ve taught this approach to many, and it has proven to be highly effective.
The Anticipatory Leader approach leverages Hard Trend future certainties with Soft Trend future possibilities to anticipate disruptions before they occur, turning disruption into opportunity. This doesn’t just minimize distraction, it allows leaders to manage opportunity instead!
Palo Alto Networks is a cybersecurity business that was founded using anticipatory thinking about the internet and digital technology. The need for businesses to protect classified information online is a Hard Trend future certainty, which the founders of Palo Alto Networks recognized and capitalized on as an opportunity to successfully launch their cybersecurity business.
What would have happened if the founders at Palo Alto Networks were left distracted by trying to avoid the issue of security breaches instead of pre-solving the problem the way they did? They likely wouldn’t exist!
In today’s era of transformation, prioritizing the management of a business or organization’s perceptions and distractions is crucial. However, it’s important to recognize that business leaders and managers have more on their plates to manage. While embracing digitally disruptive technology can streamline certain mundane tasks, effective management also entails attending to the very human aspects of leadership.
Take action now and prioritize fostering critical thinking within your team! Empower them to find a deep sense of significance in their contributions to the organization. This will be the key to staying ahead of disruption and minimizing distractions. Act today for a more innovative and focused future!
September is upon us, and Labor Day is behind us; the only thing to do this week and that is to CALL ALL YOUR ACCOUNTANTS! Remember when I shared with you that you were supposed to be collecting accountants from everyone you spoke with when you did your 9’s and 10’s questions? We also talked about connecting with accountants and tax preparers when we reviewed tax returns that our customers supplied to us. Well, now is one of the two times each year we MUST put those efforts to good use!
The first full week of September for most accountants usually is the signal for them to reach out to all their clients they filed tax extensions for. Since those filings are due in October, now is when they begin the process of collecting documents and preparing those returns! Why is this so important to us? Well, it’s time to reach out and remind those accountants that when they have those conversations it is critically important to ask the question: “Are you planning on buying or selling a house in the next two years?”
Think about it, these people tend to be either self employed or have multiple streams of income. With complicated lives and income streams, people can often overlook possible opportunities. What opportunities? Simply put, since they are filing in October for tax year 2022, they can also file again in February for 2023. This means that in less than six months, they will have TWO YEARS of documented income! Income that will either help or hurt that client’s ability to borrow mortgage money for that possible transaction!
This may not be important to many of those people, but for those people it does matter too, it matters a lot! Just putting yourself in position to make these calls and have these conversations with these accountants and potentially those clients, really can set you apart from your competition!
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About half of Gen Zers and millennials who don’t plan to buy a home in the near future say it’s because homes are too expensive
Nearly one of every five (18%) millennials and 12% of Gen Zers who replied to a recent housing survey believe they will never own a home, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
Lack of affordability is the number-one barrier to homeownership for young Americans. Roughly half of Gen Z and millennial renters who believe they’re unlikely to purchase a home in the near future say the high price of homes on the market is blocking them from buying. That’s the most commonly cited barrier, and it’s followed by several other affordability-related reasons.
Nearly half (46%) of millennials and one-third (33%) of Gen Zers say their lack of ability to save for a down payment is a barrier, and more than one-third of both Gen Zers and millennials say mortgage rates are too high. Roughly one-third also say they’re unable to afford monthly mortgage payments. About one in five (21%) Gen Zers and 16% of millennials say they need to pay off their student loan debt before they’re able to buy a home.
That’s according to a Redfin-commissioned survey conducted by Qualtrics in May and June 2023. The survey was fielded to 5,079 U.S. residents who either moved in the last year, plan to move in the next year, or rent their home. This report focuses on the 1,340 Gen Z (aged 18 to 26) and 1,973 millennial (aged 27 to 42) respondents.
“The worsening housing affordability crisis has an outsized impact on Gen Zers and millennials because they’re much less likely to own a home than older generations,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “That means many young Americans don’t benefit from rising home prices by gaining equity. Instead, these would-be first-time homebuyers bear the burden of high prices, high down payments and high monthly mortgage payments, without profits from a previous home to offset the cost. Many young people don’t have a choice between renting and buying. They’re renting their home because even though rent payments have increased, too, it’s still more affordable than buying in much of the country–and renters don’t need a down payment.”
It has become much harder to afford a home since the pandemic began, especially for first-time homebuyers. Median home-sale prices are at record highs, up 40% since 2019. Wages have risen, too, but not as much: Average hourly earnings rose roughly 20% over the same period. Record-low mortgage rates and the increasing prevalence of remote work during 2020 and 2021 fueled intense homebuying demand, which drove prices up. Now, rising mortgage rates have exacerbated the expense of owning a home. Mortgage rates have more than doubled from their low, hitting their highest level in more than 20 years in August, while home prices remain high.
Roughly one-quarter (26%) of Gen Z adults and half (52%) of millennials own their home, compared to 71% of Gen Xers and 79% of baby boomers.
Roughly 40% of Gen Zers and millennials are working second jobs to save for their down payment, and about one-quarter plan to use a cash gift from family
Of the young Americans who are planning to buy a home in the next year, many are turning to side hustles for their down payment. About two of every five Gen Zers (41%) and millennials (36%) say they’ll work a second job to help fund their down payment, the most commonly cited method aside from saving directly from paychecks.
Roughly one-quarter of Gen Z (28%) and millennial (23%) homebuyers expect to receive a cash gift from family for their down payment, while 20% of Gen Zers and 15% of millennials plan to use an inheritance.
Young Americans also cite investments as a way they’ll fund down payments. Just over 20% of both Gen Zers and millennials plan to sell stock, and roughly 15% of both generations plan to sell cryptocurrency.
To view the full report, including charts and more details on the survey, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/gen-z-millennial-affordability-barrier-to-homeownership
Thursday we got the new jobless claims and continuing claims numbers, and Friday we got the BLS Jobs Report for the month of August. The initial jobless claims and continuing claims number are always important, but they will serve to lay the foundation of the BLS Jobs Report that can really move the markets.
For the past several FED meetings, the governors have pointed to the steady decline in initial claims and the growth of jobs in the market to show that the economy is still too robust to stop raising interest rates. Despite the fact that the BLS just released an important report stating that from April of 2022 to March of 2023, they have overstated the number of jobs by more than 300,000 jobs! That’s not a small number. In fact, when put into real terms, that is a miss of more than 9% on a monthly basis. When you add into the numbers that ADP numbers have been wildly out of touch with reality to the point that people are now almost completely ignoring them, it makes you wonder that with all the actual technology we have at our disposal, how are these “season adjustments” “phone surveys” and the “birth/death model” need to be looked into and either improved or replaced. NOBODY but the FED really believes the numbers!
Please watch the reports today and on Friday. They both can move the markets, but if the BLS numbers show a weaking in the job market and softer wage pressure, we could see big improvements in the bond market. Strong numbers and we could see rates go higher quickly as it will give the FED ammunition for yet more rate hikes!
On the brighter side, purchase activity is strong despite 7% rates as many are understanding its about the Monthly VALUE of the payment, and not the rate! We also need to focus on our accountant list so we cam make our calls next week and start connecting with those filing those tax returns for the clients who have extensions! It will be a busy few days before an opportunity packed Labor Day weekend!
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Redfin reports that investor market share is down to 16% after hitting an all-time high of 20% in the first quarter of 2022
Investor home purchases fell 45% from a year earlier in the second quarter, outpacing the 31% drop in overall home sales, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. That’s the biggest decline since 2008 with the exception of the quarter before, when they dropped 48%. The decline comes as this year’s relatively cool housing and rental markets makes investing in homes less attractive than it was during the pandemic-driven homebuying frenzy of 2021 and early 2022.
The drop in purchases has brought the total number of homes bought by investors below pre-pandemic levels. Real estate investors bought roughly 50,000 homes in the second quarter, the fewest of any second quarter in seven years, with the exception of the start of the pandemic. The data in this report is from 39 of the most populous U.S. metro areas.
This marks a retreat from a boom in investor activity during the pandemic, which was driven by record-low mortgage rates and huge homebuying and rental demand, creating opportunities for investors to make a lot of money.
“Offers from hedge funds have dried up; I haven’t received an offer from one in a long time, except unrealistically low offers,” said Las Vegas Redfin Premier agent Shay Stein. “From mid-2020 until early 2022 when interest rates started going up, hedge funds bought up a ton of properties and immediately turned them into rentals, pricing out local buyers. Now a big portion of our homes are owned by investors, but they’re not adding to their portfolios.”
Investor purchases declined 65% year over year in Las Vegas, Jacksonville, FL and Phoenix, the biggest drops of the metros in this analysis. Investors are pulling back quickly from the Sun Belt and Florida largely because those places had an even bigger boom in homebuying demand than the rest of the country in 2021 and early 2022, and now they’re cooling fast.
In dollar terms, the drop in investor purchases is almost as big. Investors bought a total of $36.4 billion worth of homes in the second quarter, down 42% from a year earlier. That’s still above pre-pandemic levels, but dropping closer to it: Investors bought a total of $34 billion in the second quarter of 2018, and a total of $31.9 billion in the second quarter of 2019.
In terms of market share, investors bought 15.6% of homes that were sold in the U.S. during the second quarter, down from 19.7% a year earlier and a record high of 20.4% in the beginning of 2022.
Limited inventory, limited demand deter investors even more than individual buyers
The outsized drop in purchases by investors helps explain why their market share is coming down: Investors backed off from the housing market faster than individual homebuyers in the second quarter.
Stubbornly high home prices and mortgage rates, limited inventory and widespread economic uncertainty have dampened housing demand and suppressed overall home sales. Those factors are an even bigger deterrent for investors, because they’re in it purely for the potential to make money by flipping homes or renting them out. When housing demand is down, investors are less motivated.
Additionally, investors themselves were deterred by high home prices and high interest rates. Roughly 7 of every 10 (71%) investor purchases were made in cash in the second quarter–down from 75% a year earlier—but they’re still impacted by high interest rates because they often use other types of loans to cover expenses.
“Moving forward, the investors who do come back may be more focused on scooping up rental properties than flipping homes,” said Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari. “All signs point to the rental market remaining relatively strong. Home prices and mortgage rates are high enough to motivate would-be first-time homebuyers to continue renting. The typical U.S. asking rent remains quite high, just $16 shy of its all-time high, so investors who are landlords stand to earn money. Investor purchases of rental properties could be limited by some of them building new properties to rent out, though.”
“Home flippers may be slower to come back,” Bokhari continued. “That’s mainly because mortgage rates are unlikely to decline significantly in the short term, which will keep homebuying demand relatively low and discourage flippers. Plus, investors have lower-risk places to park their money right now than real estate, with high yields in the bond market.”
Even if investors’ market share does pick back up, their purchase volume is likely to remain low. Like other buyers, they’re limited by a severe lack of listings, with homeowners locked in by relatively low mortgage rates.
Investors’ share of new listings is falling–but those who are selling are seeing big gains
Homes owned by investors are making up a smaller share of new listings on the market. Investors owned 8% of new listings in March, down slightly from 9% a year earlier and down from a peak of 13% at the end of 2021. Investors listed 36% fewer homes than a year earlier, compared with a 24% drop in overall new listings. March is the most recent month for which this data is available.
Most investors who are still flipping homes are making money. The typical home flipper who sold a home in June sold for 61% ($188,448) more than their initial purchase price. Though that’s a substantial gain, it’s down from a 69% ($199,946) premium a year earlier. “Flipper” refers to an investor who sold a home within nine months of buying it.
Just 3% of homes sold by flippers sold at a loss in June, down from a peak of 29% in September 2022 and roughly on par with 4% a year earlier.
Investors most commonly buy low-priced homes
Investors bought 23% of low-priced homes that sold in the second quarter, down from 25% a year earlier but still much higher than investors’ market share for more expensive homes. They bought 11% of mid-priced homes, down from 19% a year earlier, and 14% of high-priced homes, down from 16% a year earlier.
Investors are attracted to low-priced homes for the same reason as other homebuyers: They cost less, which is especially attractive when home prices and interest and mortgage rates remain elevated. Investors who are buying homes to flip and re-sell are doing so in hopes that they can buy low and sell higher. Small homes—those with 1,400 square feet or less—made up 39.2% of investor purchases in the second quarter, the highest share of any second quarter on record and down just slightly from the record high of 40.6% in the first quarter of 2023.
In that same vein, low-priced homes make up a substantial piece of investors’ homebuying pie. Low-priced homes made up 46% of investor purchases in the second quarter, up from 39% a year earlier. High-priced homes made up 31% of investor purchases, up from 29% a year earlier.
Single-family homes represent nearly 7 in 10 investor purchases
Single-family homes made up 68% of investor purchases in the second quarter. That’s down from 73% a year earlier, but still the lion’s share of purchases by real estate investors. The decline is partly due to a lack of single-family homes for sale.
Next come condos, which made up 20% of investor purchases, up from 16% a year earlier and the highest share since 2018. Townhouses made up 7% of purchases, followed by multi-family properties, which accounted for 5%.
But in terms of market share, investors have the highest when it comes to multi-family properties. Real estate investors purchased 31% of multi-family properties that sold in the second quarter, just shy of 32% a year earlier. Investors make up a relatively high share of multi-family purchases because those buildings are typically expensive and used as rental properties.
Investors purchased 15% of single-family homes, down from 20% a year earlier. Investors bought roughly one out of every six condos and townhouses that sold, on par with last year.
To view the full report, including charts, methodology and metro-level data, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/investor-home-purchases-drop-Q2-2023
More...
Pending home sales increased 0.9% in July – rising for the second consecutive month – according to the National Association of Realtors®. The Northeast and Midwest posted monthly losses, while sales in the South and West grew. All four U.S. regions saw year-over-year declines in transactions.
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – rose 0.9% to 77.6 in July. Year over year, pending transactions fell by 14.0%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.
“The small gain in contract signings shows the potential for further increases in light of the fact that many people have lost out on multiple home buying offers,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Jobs are being added and, thereby, enlarging the pool of prospective home buyers. However, rising mortgage rates and limited inventory have temporarily hindered the possibility of buying for many.”
Pending Home Sales Regional Breakdown
The Northeast PHSI shrank 5.8% from last month to 63.2, a decrease of 20.2% from July 2022. The Midwest index fell 0.4% to 77.5 in July, down 16.0% from one year ago.
The South PHSI lifted 2.0% to 95.3 in July, declining 10.9% from the prior year. The West index improved 6.2% in July to 61.3, dropping 12.8% from July 2022.
“Interestingly, the West region experienced a meaningful price decline in the past year and buyers are quickly returning as a result,” Yun added.
More than one-quarter (25.8%) of homebuyers are looking to move to a different part of the country, a record-high share and up from 23.7% a year ago. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. The portion of homebuyers looking to relocate has steadily risen since the pandemic began; the share stood at roughly 18% in 2018 and 2019.
While a record share of homebuyers are looking to relocate, the number is lower than it was a year ago as the frequency of homes changing hands drops to its lowest level in at least a decade amid the cool housing market. There are 7% fewer Redfin.com users looking to move away from their home metro than a year ago. That’s compared with a 17% decline for Redfin.com homebuyers staying in their hometown.
Myrtle Beach, SC has made it onto the list of most popular migration destinations for the first time on record. The South Carolina beach town is the 9th-most popular destination for relocating homebuyers, with people most commonly moving in from Washington, D.C. and New York.
Homebuyers are moving to Myrtle Beach for its relatively affordable homes and outdoorsy lifestyle, as is the case for most of the most popular migration destinations. People moving from pricey East Coast job hubs to Myrtle Beach can get much more house for their money. The typical home in the Myrtle Beach metro sells for about $360,000, compared with over $600,000 in Washington, D.C. and about $800,000 in New York.
“This area attracts a lot of retirees, particularly from the Northeast and the West Coast, because of its relatively inexpensive cost of living, low property taxes, golf courses and sunny weather,” said Myrtle Beach Redfin agent Monica Roman. “Since the start of the pandemic, I’ve also seen quite a few remote workers move in, drawn by our reasonably priced housing and year-round vacation lifestyle.”
Metros in the Sun Belt and Florida are the most popular migration destinations despite increasing risk of flooding, heat and hurricanes
Las Vegas tops the list of most popular destinations for Redfin.com users moving to a different metro area for the second month in a row. It’s followed by Sacramento and three Florida metros: Tampa, North Port-Sarasota and Cape Coral. Popularity is determined by net inflow, a measure of how many more Redfin.com users looked to move into an area than leave.
Relatively affordable metros with warm weather are typically the most popular destinations. Metro areas in the Sun Belt and Florida are perennially in the top 10 metros for relocating Redfin.com users. Housing affordability is an especially big draw as today’s elevated mortgage rates combine with stubbornly high home prices to push monthly mortgage payments near record highs.
Metros in the southern half of the U.S. are popular despite many of them facing increasing risk from climate change. For instance, Las Vegas faces severe heat risk, Tampa faces extreme flood risk and Myrtle Beach faces extreme risk of hurricanes and other severe wind events. People keep moving to those areas, though, largely because they’re typically relatively affordable. The median home price in Las Vegas is $415,000, compared to nearly $1 million in Los Angeles, the most common origin for homebuyers moving in. And the typical home costs $430,000 in Tampa, roughly half the cost of one in New York, where homebuyers most commonly come from.
It’s worth noting that there are fewer homebuyers moving into 8 of the 10 most popular destinations than there were a year ago as high mortgage rates cool the housing market.
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Top 10 Metros Homebuyers Are Moving Into, by Net Inflow Net inflow = Number of Redfin.com home searchers looking to move into a metro area, minus the number of searchers looking to leave |
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|
Rank |
Metro* |
Net Inflow, July 2023 |
Net Inflow, July 2022 |
Top Origin |
Top Out-of-State Origin |
|
1 |
5,400 |
6,500 |
Los Angeles, CA |
Los Angeles, CA |
|
|
2 |
5,100 |
9,000 |
San Francisco, CA |
Chicago, IL |
|
|
3 |
4,600 |
1,300 |
New York, NY |
New York, NY |
|
|
4 (tie) |
4,400 |
7,800 |
New York, NY |
New York, NY |
|
|
4 (tie) |
4,400 |
5,500 |
New York, NY |
New York, NY |
|
|
6 |
3,800 |
5,600 |
Chicago, IL |
Chicago, IL |
|
|
7 (tie) |
3,700 |
5,500 |
Los Angeles, CA |
Los Angeles, CA |
|
|
7 (tie) |
3,700 |
6,600 |
Seattle, WA |
Seattle, WA |
|
|
9 |
3,600 |
3,000 |
Washington, D.C. |
Washington, D.C. |
|
|
10 |
3,400 |
3,700 |
New York, NY |
New York, NY |
|
|
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users searching to and from the region in May 2023-July 2023 |
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Homebuyers are leaving expensive coastal cities for more affordable places
Homebuyers are leaving San Francisco, New York and Los Angeles more than any other metro in the country. That’s based on net outflow, a measure of how many more Redfin.com users are looking to leave a metro than move in.
Pricey coastal job centers are typically among the metros homebuyers most commonly leave. That’s largely because buyers are often looking to relocate to places with more affordable housing, something that has become more feasible with the prevalence of remote work. It has also become more feasible to move to beachy vacation towns: Homebuyers leaving Washington, D.C. are most commonly moving to the Salisbury, MD metro and those leaving Boston are most commonly moving to the Portland, ME metro.
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Top 10 Metros Homebuyers Are Leaving, by Net Outflow Net outflow = Number of Redfin.com home searchers looking to leave a metro area, minus the number of searchers looking to move in |
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Rank |
Metro* |
Net Outflow, July 2023 |
Net Outflow, July 2022 |
Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere |
Top Destination |
Top Out-of-State Destination |
|
1 |
27,100 |
38,700 |
24% |
Sacramento, CA |
Seattle, WA |
|
|
2 |
24,500 |
25,200 |
29% |
Miami, FL |
Miami, FL |
|
|
3 |
20,800 |
32,700 |
19% |
Las Vegas, NV |
Las Vegas, NV |
|
|
4 |
15,100 |
18,600 |
19% |
Salisbury, MD |
Salisbury, MD |
|
|
5 |
5,200 |
2,300 |
17% |
Milwaukee, WI |
Milwaukee, WI |
|
|
6 |
4,600 |
9,900 |
21% |
Portland, ME |
Portland, ME |
|
|
7 |
3,400 |
600 |
79% |
Boston, MA |
Boston, MA |
|
|
8 |
3,100 |
12,500 |
19% |
Spokane, WA |
Phoenix, AZ |
|
|
9 (tie) |
2,100 |
4,500 |
35% |
Chicago, IL |
Chicago, IL |
|
|
9 (tie) |
2,100 |
5,000 |
26% |
Grand Rapids, MI |
Cape Coral, FL |
|
|
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users searching to and from the region in May 2023-July 2023 |
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To view the full report, including charts and methodology, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-migration-trends-july-2023
Have you ever observed a professional colleague, a friend, or a leader whom you admire, confidently facing uncertainty without any apparent fear? The phrase “fearless leader” must have emerged in our vocabulary for a good reason, don’t you think? Truth be told, those individuals aren’t fearless — no one is. What they have done is mastered the feeling of fear, which has unlocked their innate ability to see disruption and change as an opportunity more quickly.
As I have noted over the years of working with many clients around the world, one common thread that ties humans together in this world of rampant disruption and change is that we all find it unpleasant in many ways. Above all else, from executives down to entry-level employees, everyone finds disruption and change frightening in some fashion.
What fear can often do to us is cloud how empowering and full of opportunity disruption and change actually is, and while I teach many individuals about utilizing Hard Trend future certainties to pre-solve problems and make low-risk moves, there are just as many stuck on the feeling of fear.
Today, I want to show you how you can utilize that same Hard Trend Methodology implemented to anticipate disruption and change prior to it occurring, but also to overcome the feeling of fear by recognizing it as a fully predictable cycle!
This really puts the power in your hands — this knowledge that everyone within your industry and outside of it will experience this same disruption and change, with you seeing it coming and forming an Anticipatory action plan around it.
The Origins of Our Fear of Disruption and Change
What is the real reason behind us as a human race fearing disruption and change? The answer lies deep within the subconscious mind. Back when human beings were still hunters and gatherers, the fight-or-flight response was necessary to basic survival. From finding food, warding off predators, and finding shelter, everything was about survival.
While humans have certainly come a long way since these primitive times, the fight-or-flight response and our roots in survival are still solidly ingrained in our subconscious mind. This explains, in simple terms, why our first thought in relation to disruption and change is fear. A change in our professional or personal status quo represents to us, now in a more contemporary way, that our daily survival tactics may be threatened.
For instance, AI disrupting your career may trigger a fear that you will lose your job to said technology, resulting in loss of income and potentially the loss of your home, transportation, and so forth.
But with disruption and change comes the ability for us to create disruption and change in an offensive strategy. Adaptation and change are inherent strengths of humans, setting us apart from digital applications and other material forces. These abilities empower us in unique ways.
Worrying that AI will replace you in the workforce is akin to the concerns of people in the past who feared the impact of desktop computers and laptops. However, as history has shown, we have successfully adapted to those digital disruptions. Today, these technologies are indispensable in both our personal and professional lives, yet we remain resilient and continue to thrive even in their presence.
A Mastery of Cycles Helps Us Adapt
The reality of fearing disruption and change is that we can fully anticipate exactly how disruption and change feels to us as individuals. In lieu of this introspection, we can more quickly go through the common stages of fear and center ourselves so well, we will eventually be able to skip our fear entirely!
This is made possible by realizing that the stages of fear are a cycle, much like a biological cycle, product cycle, and even cycles in nature, such as the future certainty that the seasons will change every year. We have all experienced fear and anxiety, and the following four stages are exactly how that feeling works through our psyche in the face of disruption and change:
- Initial Shock
- Frustration
- Acceptance
- Mastery
Let’s look at them from a more pragmatic standpoint, where we start to see that the cycle of fear itself is a Hard Trend future certainty that we can anticipate and overcome. This removes fear as a roadblock and essentially clears the way for us to focus instead on leveraging the disruption and change in front of us.
Initial Shock is the first stage. This is where the fight-or-flight response comes into play and people fear where their business or work position is headed.
Then comes Frustration, the second stage of fear. Prior to any disruption, people are comfortable in their status quo. After disruption and change occur, those disrupted must learn new skills, which can be frustrating.
The third stage in the cycle of fear is Acceptance. At this stage, people know the disruption has arrived or they have begun to leverage it to their advantage, witnessing positive results.
Mastery of the disruption or change is the final stage in the cycle. At this point, everyone has fully accepted what has changed, learned all about it, and is likely starting to use it in their daily lives.
By acknowledging and understanding that these four stages of fear occur every time we face disruption or change, we can Anticipate the feeling of fear that comes with it and move past it to find the opportunity within the disruption.
Use the Excitement of Learning to Turn Disruption into an Opportunity
We as humans have a thirst for knowledge. Similar to fight or flight, our craving to always know more is a biological response. We develop biologically all throughout our lives, and as such, we crave new information. We want to know more. We want to know everything.
Overcoming fear and learning to process that sensation more quickly allows for more room in our emotional existence to soak up all the great opportunity that comes from an ever-evolving world instead of avoiding it or trying to ignore it.
Leverage this excitement for knowledge to learn more about disruption and change so you too can help it blossom into opportunity and advantage, both personally and professionally. In turn, you become the fearless leader that others look to emulate. Train yourself to embrace disruption and change as something positive, and before long, you will be the positive disruptor of your industry!
Discover the future of AI and its transformative potential! Visit www.aiStrategyReport.com now to download the comprehensive AI Strategy Report and stay ahead in this fast-evolving landscape. Empower yourself with valuable insights and make informed decisions to unlock new opportunities. Don’t miss out on this essential resource – take action today and embrace the AI revolution!
Borrowing from an epic line, the new revisions to the BLS Jobs numbers from April 2022 to March 2023 show an overstatement of jobs by more than 300,000 jobs! Reminds me of another classic line, “You had just ONE job to do…” Well, the year-old numbers they shared are already almost six months old. So now you know why the markets continue to be frustrated by the government agencies, The Federal Reserve Board Members, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and even the President, when they continue to spout “facts” about the economy and jobs that clearly are either old, out of date, or just plain fabrications!
Remember just two short years ago when inflation was transitory? Remember when we were told that spending more than a TRILLION dollars on something called “the inflation reduction act” wasn’t going to add to inflation? Remember another two TRILLION dollars on something called “Build Back Better” that wasn’t going to cause inflation and create MILLIONS of new high paying jobs for those people in the coal and oil industries to help switch everyone over to green new energy? Remember…well, I can go on and on, but you get the picture.
Why is it people don’t think we can’t handle the truth? I was puzzled by what there could possibly be to gain by saying over and over things that were flat out lies? But it became clear to me, it isn’t us; it’s THEM! THEY CAN’T HANDLE THE TRUTH! Well, the market responded yesterday on this news and the 30yr MBS 5.5% coupon was better by 63bps! The 10-year treasury was down by 13bps. The second of these numbers is the real number to watch, because if it falls much further, we could see a dramatic fall in the yield as those who have recently shorted the 10 year, will be forced to cover their short positions and that could lead to a HUGE drop in yields! With more than 20% of that market being shorted, a short squeeze could be significant.
Much will depend on what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says on Friday at Jackson Hole. If he signals a change in position and to stop raising rates; yesterday’s 63 bps could be just the tip of the iceberg! However, if he maintains his tightening bias, we may give it all back, at least for now! So, stay connected, it is important to follow!
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